The week is packed with key global events that could drive commodity prices. The European Central Bank's interest rate decision and ECB president Lagarde's remarks will be the primary focus, as any change in the policy outlook could influence the US dollar and trigger volatility in gold and silver.
European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting: Interest rate decision and President Christine Lagarde's comments will be the primary focus. Any shift in policy outlook could influence the US dollar and trigger volatility in gold and silver.
UK inflation data and US initial jobless claims: These releases could reshape expectations around global interest rates and economic strength, affecting precious metals.
US EIA crude oil inventories and natural gas storage: A larger-than-expected decline in crude inventories could support oil prices, while a stronger-than-expected build in natural gas storage may keep gas prices under pressure.
Global PMI data: Manufacturing and Services PMI numbers from the US, eurozone, Germany, the UK, Japan, India and Australia will offer fresh clues on global economic activity. Strong readings could improve demand expectations for crude oil and industrial commodities, while weaker numbers may boost safe-haven demand for precious metals.
Commodity markets are expected to remain event-driven and volatile.
Gold and silver: Sensitive to central bank signals, inflation data and US economic releases.
Brent crude oil: Likely to take direction from US inventory data and global growth expectations reflected in PMI numbers.
Natural gas: Expected to remain driven by the weekly storage report and weather-related demand.
Overall, traders should expect higher volatility around the ECB meeting and the US inventory releases.
Gold began the week with a marginal gap-down opening of 0.02 percent at 4,119.60, compared with the previous close of 4,120.35. It touched a high of 4,119.60 and a low of 3,959.78 before settling at 4,018.44, registering a weekly loss of 101.91 points (2.47 percent).
The decline was driven by a firmer US dollar, elevated Treasury yields and stronger-than-expected US economic data, which reduced expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. Lingering geopolitical uncertainties, however, helped limit deeper downside by sustaining safe-haven demand.
Support: 3,940; 3,791
Resistance: 4,086; 4,175
Cautious to mildly bearish bias.
Focus on US macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve signals.
Renewed geopolitical tensions or weaker economic data could revive safe-haven demand.
Silver opened the week with a gap-down of 0.90 percent at $59.29 from the previous week's close of $59.83. Persistent selling pressure pushed prices lower, with the metal settling at $55.91, down approximately 6.56 percent for the week.
The fall reflected stronger risk appetite, a firm US dollar and reduced safe-haven demand amid easing geopolitical concerns and resilient US economic data.
Support: $54.50; $49.35
Resistance: $59.85; $64.00
ECB policy decision, PMI data, US jobless claims and the US dollar will remain key drivers.
Holding above $54.50 could encourage a technical recovery.
A break below support may extend the corrective decline.
Brent crude oil opened the week with a gap-up of 3.69 percent at $78.00 against the previous week's close of $75.22. Strong buying momentum pushed prices to an intraday high of $88.38 before settling at $88.27, delivering a weekly gain of approximately 17.35 percent.
The rally was fuelled by renewed geopolitical tensions in key oil-producing regions, concerns over supply disruptions and a larger-than-expected decline in US crude inventories.
Support: $82.30; $71.02
Resistance: $90.00; $98.00
Geopolitical developments and the US crude inventory report remain key.
PMI data will provide further direction on demand expectations.
Sustaining above $82.30 could pave the way towards the $90-98 zone, while easing supply concerns may trigger profit booking.
Natural gas opened the week with a gap-down of 0.66 percent at $2.8957 from the previous week's close of $2.9150. Prices touched a low of $2.7935 before closing at $2.8822, down approximately 1.13 percent for the week.
Weakness was mainly driven by expectations of comfortable storage levels, mild weather forecasts reducing cooling demand and a cautious consumption outlook despite stable LNG exports.
Support: $2.6700; $2.3700
Resistance: $3.0600; $3.4000
Weekly US natural gas storage data, weather forecasts and LNG export demand will be closely watched.
A sustained move above $3.0600 could improve sentiment.
Continued trading below this level may keep prices under pressure, with $2.6700 likely to be tested.
Note: Research for this article was provided by Research Desk, MyEquityLab.com, a SEBI Registered research analyst (Registration No: INH000023843).
