Commodity markets enter the new week at a crucial juncture, with investors awaiting a series of major US economic releases that could shape expectations for interest rates, global growth and commodity demand. While precious metals remain sensitive to shifts in Federal Reserve policy expectations, energy markets are balancing inventory trends against concerns over slowing economic activity in major economies.
The spotlight will be on US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), unemployment data and ISM manufacturing and services PMIs. Strong labour market data could reinforce expectations that US interest rates will remain higher for longer, supporting the dollar and weighing on gold and silver. Conversely, weaker-than-expected data could revive hopes of future rate cuts and provide support to bullion prices.
In energy markets, traders will closely track weekly API and EIA inventory reports, refinery utilisation rates and fuel demand trends. Expectations of declining US crude inventories may continue to support oil prices. However, concerns about slowing growth in China and Europe, along with weak manufacturing indicators, could limit further gains.
China's Caixin manufacturing and services PMIs, along with Eurozone inflation and GDP figures, will also be watched closely for clues on global commodity demand. Stronger economic data from China could support industrial commodities and energy markets, while softer readings may keep sentiment cautious.
Natural gas is expected to remain volatile as traders assess storage data and weather forecasts, both of which continue to play a key role in demand expectations.
Precious metals are likely to remain volatile ahead of key US economic data and Federal Reserve commentary. Crude oil may retain a positive bias if inventory drawdowns continue and geopolitical risks remain elevated. Natural gas could witness sharp swings depending on storage levels and weather-driven demand.
Overall, movements in the US dollar, inflation trends, global growth expectations and major economic data releases are expected to remain the key drivers of commodity markets in the coming week.
Gold opened the week at 4,569.05 against the previous close of 4,508.93, reflecting a gap-up opening of 1.33 percent. Despite the positive start, selling pressure emerged at higher levels and the metal eventually settled at 4,538.16, indicating continued consolidation.
Technically, immediate support is placed at 4,367, followed by a stronger support zone near 4,098. Resistance is seen at 4,683, with the next major hurdle around 4,891.
Gold continues to trade with a cautious undertone as prices remain below key resistance levels. Sustaining above 4,367 could support a recovery towards 4,683. However, a break below support may invite fresh selling pressure and increase the likelihood of a decline towards lower levels.
Market sentiment is expected to remain highly sensitive to US economic data, Federal Reserve commentary, dollar movements and geopolitical developments.
Silver opened at 77.99 compared with the previous close of 75.48, registering a gap-up opening of 3.32 percent. However, the metal witnessed volatile price action and profit-booking at higher levels before settling at 75.29.
Immediate support is placed at 69.82, followed by a stronger support zone near 64.10. Resistance is seen at 80.65, while the next major resistance level stands at 89.40.
Silver continues to trade within a broad and volatile range as prices struggle to sustain above nearby resistance levels. Holding above 69.82 could help the metal regain momentum towards 80.65. However, a breakdown below support may increase selling pressure and drag prices lower.
Market direction is likely to remain influenced by movements in the US dollar, global economic data and overall sentiment in the precious metals segment.
Brent crude opened the week at 97.50 against the previous close of 104.24, reflecting a sharp gap-down opening of 6.47 percent. Selling pressure persisted throughout the week and prices eventually settled at 91.88, indicating continued weakness.
Immediate support is placed at 86.10, followed by a stronger support zone near 75.75. On the upside, resistance is seen at 101.35, while the next major resistance level stands at 112.70.
Brent crude continues to trade with a bearish bias amid concerns over global demand and persistent volatility. Holding above 86.10 could provide temporary stability and support a recovery towards 101.35. However, a decisive break below support may trigger fresh downside momentum.
Market participants will closely monitor inventory data, OPEC-related developments, geopolitical events and global economic indicators for further direction.
Natural gas opened the week at 3.02, almost unchanged from the previous close of 3.03. After a muted start, strong buying interest emerged and the commodity settled at 3.28, posting a weekly gain of 8.08 percent.
Technically, immediate support is placed at 2.98, followed by a stronger support zone near 2.67. Resistance is seen at 3.50, while the next major resistance level stands at 3.77.
Natural gas has shown renewed strength after rebounding from key support levels, indicating improving bullish momentum. Sustaining above 2.98 could support a move towards 3.50. However, profit-booking or a break below support could limit upside momentum.
Traders are expected to closely monitor weather forecasts, storage data and supply-demand dynamics for further direction in the coming week.
Note: Prepared by Research Desk, MyEquityLab.com, SEBI-registered Research Analyst (Registration No. INH000023843).
