Crude oil crosses $91 adding uncertainty to global markets

Gold continues to gain; In Kerala, 22-carat gold rose ₹400 per sovereign to ₹1,14,160.
Crude oil crosses $91 adding uncertainty to global markets
Updated on
5 min read

The absence of a fresh ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran has kept markets on edge, even though hostilities have not resumed. Crude oil prices have crossed $91 a barrel, adding to uncertainty across global markets.

Gift Nifty, traded in the derivatives segment at GIFT City, closed at 24,296 on Monday night and climbed to 24,329 in morning trade. The indication is that Indian equities could open under significant pressure today.

Trump in no hurry

US President Donald Trump said on Monday that Washington was in no hurry to reach a ceasefire agreement with Iran, although contacts were continuing at various levels. Iran, meanwhile, indicated that it was giving the US a few more weeks to honour the understandings reached between the two sides.

Neither side has indicated that war will resume immediately. However, concerns over the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea have pushed crude prices higher.

The fact that Brent crude has not yet returned to the $100 level suggests that markets still see the risk of a wider conflict as relatively contained.

US markets end lower

US equities fell on Monday amid uncertainty over the next move in the US-Iran situation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 272.63 points, or 0.51 percent, to close at 53,459.78. The S&P 500 declined 40.70 points, or 0.52 percent, to 7,745.06, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 84.25 points, or 0.32 percent, to 26,644.91.

US stock futures were trading lower in morning deals. Dow futures were down 22 points, or 0.04 percent, while S&P 500 futures declined five points, or 0.07 percent. Nasdaq futures were down 12 points, or 0.04 percent.

Indian ADRs mixed

In New York's ADR market, HDFC Bank fell 0.94 percent during regular trading before gaining 0.56 percent in after-hours trading to close at $23.28.

ICICI Bank declined 1.14 percent during regular trading and was unchanged in after-hours trading at $29.40.

Infosys fell 3.89 percent during regular trading but gained 1.55 percent in after-hours trading to close at $11.80. Wipro declined 1.55 percent during regular trading before gaining 0.52 percent in after-hours trading to finish at $1.92.

European markets decline

European markets closed lower on Monday as higher crude oil prices and concerns over LNG availability weighed on sentiment.

Falling water levels in rivers also forced some nuclear power plants to reduce operations, adding to concerns over energy supplies.

Asian markets mixed

Asian markets were trading in different directions on Tuesday.

South Korea's KOSPI rose around 3 percent, while Japan's Nikkei declined 0.60 percent. Australia's market gained 0.35 percent and Taiwan's benchmark was marginally lower. Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.20 percent, while Shanghai stocks gained.

Indian market under pressure

Rising crude oil prices once again weighed on Indian equities. Foreign institutional investors were net sellers on Monday, offloading shares worth ₹2,535.10 crore in the cash market. Domestic institutional investors, however, were net buyers at ₹5,101.46 crore.

The Sensex fell 281.09 points, or 0.36 percent, to close at 77,728.16. The Nifty 50 declined 78.35 points, or 0.32 percent, to 24,287.65.

Bank Nifty gained 6.70 points, or 0.01 percent, to 57,497.80. The Nifty Midcap 100 rose 34.85 points, or 0.05 percent, to 63,817, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 gained 70.70 points, or 0.36 percent, to 19,809.25.

Market breadth remained weak. On the BSE, 2,027 stocks advanced while 2,417 declined. On the NSE, 1,673 stocks gained and 1,814 fell.

Stocks to watch

  • One97 Communications: Vijay Shekhar Sharma, the company's key promoter and founder, is set to sell a 4.98 percent stake through a bulk transaction.

  • Ceigall India: The Delhi government has cancelled a ₹330.84 crore road construction tender awarded to the company.

  • Wipro: The Centre has approved the company's ₹1,401 crore investment proposal under the Electronics Component Manufacturing Scheme.

  • Samvardhana Motherson International: The company has agreed to acquire a 65 percent stake in China's Shenzhen Autocruis Technology.

Gold continues its rally

Gold continued to gain even as crude oil crossed $90 a barrel. Expectations that interest rates are unlikely to rise further are supporting the precious metal.

Gold gained $40.30 on Monday to close at $4,417.90 an ounce. It climbed to $4,436.80 in morning trade before easing to around $4,410.

In Kerala, 22-carat gold rose ₹400 per sovereign to ₹1,14,160.

Silver closed at $65.92 an ounce on Monday and rose to $66.53 in morning trade. Platinum was trading around $1,780, palladium at $1,315 and rhodium at $8,550.

Rubber prices slip again

International rubber prices edged lower, with prices in Kerala also declining.

In Bangkok, RSS 1 fell to $281.70 per quintal and RSS 3 to $278.30. In Kerala, RSS 4 declined to ₹27,700 per quintal.

Copper surges

Copper prices continued their strong rally as disruptions at mines and shortages of concentrates for refineries tightened supply.

Copper jumped 2.10 percent on Monday to $14,847.35. Aluminium gained 0.83 percent to $3,265.13, while zinc, lead, nickel and tin also advanced.

Cocoa crosses $6,000

Cocoa prices surged 5.28 percent on Monday to $6,078 a tonne.

Ghana's Cocoa Board expects production to fall 16 percent due to adverse weather conditions. Production in Ivory Coast, another major cocoa producer, is also expected to decline by more than 10 percent.

Production across Asia and Latin America could fall by another one lakh tonnes, according to estimates.

Arabica coffee prices gained 1.07 percent to $3.18 a pound amid concerns that the El Niño weather pattern could reduce production next year.

Dollar index weakens

The US Dollar Index closed at 99.64 on Monday and slipped to 99.57 in morning trade.

The euro strengthened to $1.1582, while the pound rose to $1.355. The Japanese yen stood at 159.45 to the dollar, while the Chinese yuan remained at 6.74 to the dollar.

The yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds rose to 4.728 percent in morning trade.

Rupee weakens further

The Indian rupee ended lower on Monday, with the dollar gaining 17 paise to close at ₹95.60.

In the offshore forward market, the dollar was quoted at ₹95.71 in morning trade, pointing to further weakness in the rupee.

The market was also affected by the government's decision to end a special foreign exchange mobilisation scheme on August 31, earlier than the originally announced September 30 deadline. The scheme was reportedly closed after the targeted inflows were received.

Around $57 billion has reportedly flowed into the scheme so far, but its impact on the rupee has been limited. A similar scheme introduced in 2013 had helped the rupee gain more than 6 percent in two months. This time, the currency has gained only around 0.10 percent over a similar period.

The Chinese yuan rose to ₹14.18 and the euro to ₹110.21.

Brent crude crosses $91

Crude oil prices climbed further amid concerns over shipping security and supply risks in West Asia.

Brent crude gained $2.31 on Monday to close at $90.87 a barrel. In morning trade, Brent rose to $91.03, while West Texas Intermediate crude reached $84.75.

Cryptocurrencies gain

Cryptocurrencies moved higher in morning trade. Bitcoin was trading below $64,300, while Ether remained above $1,900 and Solana above $76.

Market indicators

(August 17, Monday)

Sensex 77,728.16 -0.36%

Nifty 50 24,287.65 -0.32%

Bank Nifty 57,497.80 +0.01%

Nifty Midcap 100 63,817.00 +0.05%

Nifty Smallcap 100 19,809.25 +0.36%

Dow Jones 53,459.78 -0.51%

S&P 500 7,745.06 -0.52%

Nasdaq 26,644.91 -0.32%

Dollar ₹95.60 +₹0.17

Gold (ounce) $4,417.90 +$40.30

Gold (sovereign) ₹1,14,160 +₹400

Brent crude $90.87 +$2.35

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