Global markets are waiting for the US Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision, due early Thursday. Crude oil crossed $109 for the second time in a week before retreating. European and US markets also closed lower on Tuesday after Indian equities fell sharply.
US futures and Asian markets were largely directionless early Wednesday, reflecting caution ahead of the Fed decision.
GIFT Nifty rose to 23,235 in morning trade after closing at 23,197.50 on Tuesday night. The indications point to a largely flat opening for Indian equities.
The US Federal Reserve will announce its interest-rate decision at 12.30 am IST on Thursday. Markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike, with the probability estimated at around 91%.
The Bank of Japan and Bank of England are also expected to raise rates on Thursday. The European Central Bank had raised rates last week.
Expectations of another US rate hike in December have pushed Treasury prices lower. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury briefly crossed 5%, reaching levels not seen since 2007.
UPI transactions above ₹2,000 may attract a 0.4% merchant discount rate from October 15, according to the proposed fee structure.
The charge would start at ₹8 for a ₹2,000 transaction and be capped at ₹300 for transactions of ₹75,000 and above.
The proposed distribution of the merchant fee is:
40% to the payer’s bank
30% to the recipient bank
20% to the UPI app provider
10% to the transaction-processing entity
There would be no charge on person-to-person transactions. Merchants receiving more than ₹1 lakh a month would come under the proposed fee structure. Online merchant transactions would also attract a 0.4% charge.
For payments such as school fees, insurance premiums and electricity bills, a charge of ₹5 per bill has been proposed.
Google Pay and Walmart-owned PhonePe together process around 85% of UPI transactions in India.
US equities extended their decline on Tuesday amid concerns over interest rates and elevated crude prices. AI-related stocks, which had fallen sharply in the previous session, recovered somewhat.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 328.09 points, or 0.63%, to 52,093.11. The S&P 500 declined 34.25 points, or 0.45%, to 7,585.73, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 204.84 points, or 0.78%, to 25,981.57.
US futures were showing marginal gains early Wednesday.
Dow futures: +61 points, or 0.12%
S&P 500 futures: +10 points, or 0.13%
Nasdaq futures: +14 points, or 0.04%
In New York trading, HDFC Bank fell 1.35% during regular hours before gaining 0.97% in after-hours trading to close at $22.80.
ICICI Bank declined 2.94% during regular trading and was unchanged in after-hours trading at $28.40.
Infosys fell 2.41% during regular trading before gaining 0.44% after hours to close at $11.37. Wipro declined 1.69% during regular trading and was unchanged after hours at $1.75.
European equities fell on Tuesday as higher crude prices and interest-rate concerns continued to weigh on investor sentiment.
Asian markets were mixed in early trade. Japan’s Nikkei was down 0.15%, while Australia’s market gained 0.10%. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.50%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and Taiwan’s benchmark gained around 0.50%.
Shanghai slipped 0.55%.
The Indian market, which opened with strong gains on Tuesday, reversed course and ended sharply lower. A break below the 23,000 level on the Nifty could increase selling pressure. Technical indicators remain negative, with the major indices in correction territory.
All major sectors except IT closed lower. Defence stocks suffered some of the steepest declines. Solar Industries, which is spending heavily on the acquisition of a foreign company, fell 13.64%. Mishra Dhatu Nigam dropped 9.28%, Data Patterns 9.24% and Apollo Micro Systems 8.40%.
Cochin Shipyard fell 4.06%, Bharat Electronics 5.30%, HAL 4.28%, Bharat Dynamics 4.62%, Mazagon Dock 4.40% and MTAR Technologies 5%.
Foreign investors continued to sell Indian equities. Their cumulative net withdrawal from the Indian market in 2026 has reached ₹2,37,579 crore. On Tuesday alone, they were net sellers of ₹2,977.86 crore in the cash market. Domestic institutional investors were net buyers of ₹2,686.05 crore.
The Sensex fell 777.94 points, or 1.06%, to 74,003.82. The Nifty 50 declined 279.50 points, or 1.19%, to 23,118.60.
Bank Nifty fell 811.80 points, or 1.43%, to 55,794.75. The Mid Cap 100 index declined 1,318.95 points, or 2.12%, to 60,878.25, while the Small Cap 100 index fell 483.85 points, or 2.43%, to 19,422.45.
Tata Chemicals surged 20% and Tata Investment Corporation gained 10.30% amid expectations that Tata Sons may have to pursue a listing. Afcons Infrastructure and Forbes & Company, associated with the Shapoorji Pallonji Mistry group, also gained as much as 20%.
Gold continued to ease as expectations of higher US interest rates weighed on the metal. However, some market participants see limited scope for prices to fall below $4,000 an ounce, unlike the sharp decline seen in July.
Gold fell $5.30 on Tuesday to close at $4,294.90 an ounce and slipped to around $4,282 early Wednesday.
In Keralam, 22-carat gold rose ₹240 per sovereign on Tuesday to ₹1,12,320.
Silver edged up to $63.78 an ounce. Platinum stood at $1,772, palladium at $1,285 and rhodium at $9,200.
International rubber prices declined again on Tuesday. RSS 1 in Bangkok fell to $280.80 a quintal and RSS 3 to $277.40.
The Keralam price remained at ₹27,400 a quintal.
A strengthening El Niño could reduce rubber production significantly in Southeast Asia. The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries had estimated earlier this month that global rubber production would reach 15.28 million tonnes in 2026, against consumption of 15.36 million tonnes.
Higher crude prices are also raising concerns over global economic growth.
Industrial metals remained under pressure amid interest-rate concerns, with copper the exception.
Copper gained marginally to $14,044.85 a tonne. Aluminium fell 0.27% to $3,235.35. Lead, nickel, zinc and tin also declined.
Cocoa prices fell 2.71% to $5,860 a tonne. Higher exports from Ivory Coast and rising inventories on the ICE exchange have weighed on prices.
However, production is expected to fall sharply in the 2026-27 season beginning in October. Estimates point to a 20% decline in Ivory Coast and a 38% fall in Ghana. Ghana’s cocoa marketing company has reportedly doubled its earlier estimate of the production shortfall.
Arabica coffee fell 2.46% to $2.83 a pound as Brazil’s production approached record levels. Brazilian exports rose 45% in August.
Palm oil gained 0.70% to 4,884 Malaysian ringgit a tonne.
The US Dollar Index rose to 99.62 on Tuesday and climbed to 99.71 early Wednesday.
The euro slipped to $1.1533 and the pound to $1.3465. The Japanese yen weakened to 155.35 per dollar, while the Chinese yuan remained around 6.71 per dollar.
The 10-year US Treasury yield rose as high as 5.017% before easing to around 4.998%.
The rupee fell 41 paise to close at ₹95.96 against the US dollar, its weakest level in three months.
In offshore forward markets, the dollar rose to around ₹95.99 early Wednesday.
The Chinese yuan was at ₹14.30 and the euro at ₹110.69.
Brent crude crossed $109 a barrel again on Tuesday before giving up most of its gains.
Brent gained 3.07% to close at $108.75 a barrel and slipped to $108.11 early Wednesday. WTI crude was at $104.93.
Cryptocurrencies came under heavy selling pressure early Wednesday.
Bitcoin fell more than 4% to below $75,700. Ether and Solana each declined around 6%, falling below $2,400 and $97 respectively.
Sensex: 74,003.82 | -1.06%
Nifty 50: 23,118.60 | -1.19%
Bank Nifty: 55,794.75 | -1.43%
Mid Cap 100: 60,878.25 | -2.12%
Small Cap 100: 19,422.45 | -2.43%
Dow Jones: 52,093.11 | -0.63%
S&P 500: 7,585.73 | -0.45%
Nasdaq: 25,981.57 | -0.78%
US dollar: ₹95.96 | +₹0.41
Gold (ounce): $4,294.90 | -$5.30
Gold (sovereign): ₹1,12,320 | +₹240
Brent crude: $108.75 | +3.07%
