Nothing particularly exciting is happening in the markets. The anticipated ceasefire in Gaza did not materialise. Reports suggest that the United States may supply Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles capable of striking deep into Russian territory. Yet crude oil prices are falling due to increased supply. At the same time, gold has defied all forecasts, surging above 3,850 dollars per ounce.
The US market swung sharply yesterday before closing with small gains. Asian markets are presenting a mixed picture. Indian markets are not expected to open with much enthusiasm. Meanwhile, trade discussions between India and the United States have hit a roadblock over the issue of Russian oil purchases.
US President Donald Trump has prepared a formula to end the Gaza conflict and establish a new administration there, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has agreed to. Hamas responded by saying it would study the proposal first. The plan includes 20 measures ranging from eliminating terrorism in Gaza, appointing an interim Palestinian administration, and gradually paving the way for a Palestinian state. However, the markets remain unconvinced that this move will bring peace.
India’s industrial production index for August rose by only four percent, down from 4.3 percent in July. Factory output growth slipped from six percent to 3.8 percent, while consumer durables production declined by 6.3 percent. For the April to August period, average growth fell from 4.3 percent to 2.8 percent.
Moody’s has retained India’s rating at Baa3 with a stable outlook. Other rating agencies have either maintained or upgraded India’s ratings. In the derivatives market, Gift Nifty closed at 24,688.50 on Monday night. By early Tuesday morning, it touched 24,699.50 before dipping slightly, suggesting a flat opening for Indian markets.
European equities opened strongly on Monday but closed with modest gains. Shares of AstraZeneca and GSK rose after confirmation that medicines manufactured in, or entering from, countries with trade agreements with the US would be exempt from the 100 percent tariff. Lufthansa’s stock climbed despite announcing a 10 percent rise in revenue and plans to cut 4,000 jobs.
In the United States, markets ended with minor gains after a volatile session. Nvidia’s continued rise boosted technology shares, but concerns about a possible government shutdown weighed on sentiment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 68.78 points (0.15 percent) to close at 46,316.07. The S&P 500 gained 17.51 points (0.26 percent) to close at 6,661.21, and the Nasdaq Composite rose by 107.08 points (0.48 percent) to 22,591.15. US futures markets are currently in the red, with the Dow down 0.06 percent, the S&P off 0.07 percent, and the Nasdaq 0.08 percent lower.
Asian markets are mixed. Japan’s Nikkei fell by 0.30 percent, while South Korea and Australia traded higher. Hong Kong opened stronger, whereas Chinese stocks opened slightly lower but later turned positive, showing a small rebound from last month.
In India, hopes of a rebound at the start of the new week were dashed. After beginning in positive territory, the market slipped in the afternoon, marking seven straight sessions of decline. No progress has been made in trade negotiations, and new tariff threats continue. The United States has now announced a 100 percent duty on foreign-made films, following similar levies on medicines and the imposition of a 100,000-dollar fee on H-1B visas. Washington has stated that duties on India will only be waived if it stops importing Russian oil and permits unrestricted agricultural imports — demands New Delhi is unwilling to accept.
Public sector banks, oil and gas firms, and realty stocks performed well, but automobiles, pharmaceuticals, healthcare, and private banks dragged markets lower. Wockhardt surged 15.4 percent after confirmation that Indian pharma firms with units in countries holding trade agreements with the US would not be subject to the 100 percent tariff. Conversely, shipbuilding stocks tumbled, with Cochin Shipyard down 5.03 percent, Garden Reach 4.09 percent, and Mazagon Dock 2.49 percent.
Oil marketing companies rallied up to 4.6 percent after the minister stated that their share prices did not yet reflect reality and should rise further. By the close, the Nifty slipped 19.80 points (0.08 percent) to 24,634.90. The Sensex lost 61.52 points (0.08 percent) to 80,364.94, while Bank Nifty gained 71.65 points (0.13 percent) to finish at 54,461.00. The Midcap 100 index rose 154.60 points (0.27 percent) to 56,533.15, while the Smallcap 100 fell 12.25 points (0.07 percent) to 17,548.65.
Market breadth remained weak, with declines outpacing advances. On the BSE, 1,822 shares rose while 2,389 fell. On the NSE, 1,497 gained and 1,578 declined. Ninety-eight stocks touched 52-week highs, while 125 fell to their lowest levels. Ninety-one stocks hit upper circuits, while 96 touched lower circuits.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth ₹2,831.59 crore in the cash market on Monday, while domestic funds bought shares worth ₹3,845.87 crore. The market remains fragile, with 24,600 serving as the immediate support. Resistance is seen at 24,800–24,900, with additional supports at 24,500, 24,400, and 24,100. For today, Nifty is expected to find support at 24,600 and 24,495, with hurdles at 24,750 and 24,800.
Among corporate updates, IRFC has approved loans of ₹16,489 crore for thermal power plants in Haryana and Maharashtra. Bharat Electronics secured defence contracts worth ₹1,092 crore over the past fortnight. SEBI banned Man Industries, its chairman, and two others from capital markets for two years after finding evidence of misreporting and diversion of funds. Tata Motors’ rating outlook was downgraded from positive to negative by Moody’s after JLR production was halted for a month due to a cyber-attack.
Gold continues its surge, defying predictions of consolidation. Concerns over a possible US government shutdown have added to the bullish momentum. The yellow metal comfortably crossed the $3,800 mark — previously seen as strong resistance — and speculation is growing that the rally could extend beyond $4,000 per ounce. On Monday, gold jumped $76 to close at $3,834.80, before climbing further to $3,850.60 on Tuesday morning. Intraday highs reached $3,876. Kerala’s 22-carat sovereign price rose by ₹1,040 in two moves on Monday, hitting a record ₹85,720.
Silver rose to $47 per ounce before settling at $46.81, its highest level in 14 years, and is now up 54 percent over the past year. Platinum and palladium also extended gains. Industrial metals strengthened, with copper up 1.06 percent to $10,232.85 per tonne and aluminium up 0.51 percent to $2,669.25. Zinc, nickel, and tin gained, while lead fell. Rubber climbed 0.35 percent to 173.70 cents per kilogram, cocoa rose 0.56 percent to $6,946.65 per tonne, tea was up 0.71 percent, and palm oil slipped 0.27 percent. Coffee prices dropped 1.68 percent.
The US dollar index slipped below 98, closing at 97.91 on Monday and edging to 97.95 in early trading. The euro rose to 1.1729 dollars, the pound to 1.3433 dollars, and the yen to 148.52 per dollar. US Treasury yields eased, with the 10-year bond yield falling to 4.143 percent.
The rupee weakened slightly, with the dollar closing at a record ₹88.76. China’s yuan traded at 7.12 per dollar. Crude oil prices fell by three percent as exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan resumed and OPEC prepared to raise output next month. Brent crude dropped to $67.97 per barrel and further to $67.52 in early trade. WTI stood at $63.06 and Murban crude at $69.17. Natural gas prices edged up 0.2 percent.
Cryptocurrencies were back in rally mode. Bitcoin rose to $114,350, while Ether traded at $4,220 and Solana at $214.
