The market enters the final week of the month amid a wave of favourable developments. Although trading ended lower the previous day, markets are expected to open on a positive note today. On Friday, US markets rallied sharply, and this morning Asian markets and US futures are also showing solid gains.
The United States and China have largely resolved their trade dispute. The threat of a 100 per cent punitive tariff has been withdrawn. Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are expected to meet on Thursday and announce the agreement.
Although discussions between India and the United States have concluded, the deal will not be announced immediately, as President Trump has continued to publicly warn India over Russian oil imports.
The US Federal Reserve’s policy committee will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Markets widely expect an interest rate cut. Consumer inflation in the United States rose to 3 per cent in September from the previous month but did not reach the feared 3.1 per cent. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) also stood at 3 per cent. These figures strengthen the case for the Fed to lower rates.
A majority expect a 0.40 per cent reduction, while some anticipate a 0.50 per cent cut—from the current 4.25–4.50 per cent range to 3.75–4.00 per cent.
Crude oil prices remain elevated in global markets, while gold continues its downward trend.
In the derivatives market, Gift Nifty closed at 25,868.00 on Friday and climbed to 25,944 this morning—indicating that Indian markets are likely to open with healthy gains.
European equities continued their upward trend on Friday, with only the French index ending flat. The modest rise in US inflation supported market sentiment. Swedish defence company Saab surged 6.1 per cent after strong results prompted upward revisions to earnings expectations. Following the US, Europe also announced new sanctions against Russia.
Lower-than-expected consumer inflation boosted Wall Street indices on Friday. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at Wednesday’s meeting were reinforced by the inflation data.
Although trade war concerns persist, confirmation that Trump and Xi will meet on Thursday buoyed investor confidence.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 472.51 points (1.01%) to close at 47,207.12. The S&P 500 gained 53.25 points (0.79%) to finish at 6,791.69, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 263.07 points (1.17%) to 23,204.87. During intraday trade, the Dow hit 47,326.73, the S&P 6,807.11, and the Nasdaq 23,261.26—all record highs.
US futures are trading higher this morning, with the Dow up 0.61%, the S&P 0.73%, and the Nasdaq 0.90%.
Major technology companies will release their quarterly results this week, alongside factory output and unemployment data.
Asian markets are also rallying today. Japan’s Nikkei index surged more than 2 per cent at the open, crossing 50,000 for the first time. The confirmed Trump–Xi agreement has fuelled optimism. South Korea’s index rose 1.8 per cent to a new record, while Hong Kong and Chinese indices are also higher.
The delay in the India–US trade agreement and the postponement of the Modi–Trump meeting dragged Indian markets lower on Friday. Concerns over potential losses from the complete halt of Russian oil imports added pressure.
The Sensex, which had touched 84,707, fell 496 points, while the Nifty dropped 99 points after reaching 25,944. Bank, mid-cap, and small-cap indices also ended in the red.
The Nifty closed 96.25 points (0.37%) lower at 25,795.15, and the Sensex fell 344.52 points (0.41%) to 84,211.88. The Bank Nifty lost 378.45 points (0.65%) to 57,699.60. The Midcap 100 index slipped 140.05 points (0.24%) to 59,231.20, while the Smallcap 100 declined 38.10 points (0.21%) to 18,253.35.
The broader market’s advance–decline ratio remained negative. On the BSE, 1,771 shares advanced while 2,416 declined. On the NSE, 1,233 shares gained and 1,847 fell.
On the NSE, 77 stocks hit 52-week highs while 47 touched lows. Seventy-seven stocks were locked in the upper circuit and 49 in the lower circuit.
Foreign investors were net buyers of ₹621.51 crore in the cash segment on Friday, while domestic funds bought shares worth ₹173.13 crore.
According to technical analysts, the market appears to be in an accumulation phase despite selling pressure. A drop below 25,700 could trigger a deeper correction, while a move above 25,900 could extend the uptrend. Nifty has support at 25,730 and 25,680, with resistance at 25,905 and 26,960.
Reliance Industries stated that it will comply with government directives and sanctions from the US, EU, and UK regarding Russian oil imports. Currently, 70 per cent of its crude imports come from Russia; future supplies will be sourced mainly from Gulf and African nations, potentially squeezing profit margins.
Kotak Mahindra Bank reported a 3 per cent decline in second-quarter net profit, though net interest income rose 4 per cent. Loans grew 16 per cent, and deposits 14.6 per cent.
The likelihood of Kotak Mahindra Bank acquiring IDBI Bank has increased after Emirates NBD abandoned its interest following the acquisition of RBL Bank. The government’s stake sale in IDBI is reportedly in its final stages.
Ola Electric Mobility’s board has approved a ₹1,500-crore fund-raising plan through a share sale, though the method of sale is yet to be decided.
Coforge posted results in line with expectations: revenue rose 5.9 per cent, operating margin stood at 14 per cent, and new contracts worth $514 million were secured.
Dr Reddy’s Laboratories reported a 9.8 per cent increase in revenue and a 7.3 per cent rise in net profit for the second quarter.
Eclerx Services’ board approved a share buyback worth ₹300 crore at ₹4,500 per share.
Dr Lal PathLabs will issue bonus shares; the board will decide the ratio in its Friday meeting.
Indian Oil Corporation received relief of ₹1,102 crore from a tax demand following an appeal, with the remaining ₹91.16 crore pending before the appellate tribunal.
SBI Cards posted a 12.2 per cent increase in revenue and a 10 per cent rise in net profit for the second quarter, with a reduction in non-performing assets.
Supreme Petrochem’s second-quarter revenue fell 55 per cent, but net profit rose 63 per cent.
Weaker-than-expected US inflation helped gold prices rebound on Friday, though the metal still ended the week 6.12 per cent below its recent peak of $4,381.21 per ounce, closing at $4,113.20. The decline comes after nine consecutive weeks of gains.
Gold has previously fallen in the tenth week after nine straight weekly advances—in 1978 and three times since.
During the past six trading sessions, gold twice crossed $4,380 per ounce but once dropped to $4,003—a decline of 8.33 per cent from the high.
Most analysts expect gold to fluctuate between $4,000 and $4,300 this week. In a survey of 17 analysts, three forecasted a rise, six expected a decline, and eight predicted sideways movement.
In Asian trading this morning, gold initially slumped to $4,059 before rebounding to $4,090.
On Friday, spot gold touched $4,159 before closing at $4,126.90, but fell below $4,100 in early trade today.
In Kerala, 22-carat gold prices rose from ₹91,200 per sovereign on Friday to ₹92,120 on Saturday—an increase of ₹920.
Following Diwali, silver prices in India fell sharply. In Mumbai, the price dropped from ₹1,90,000 per kilogram on 15 October to ₹1,47,000 by the weekend. Domestic silver prices had been significantly higher than global levels due to supply shortages, prompting some silver ETFs to suspend new subscriptions. After Diwali, the premium turned into a discount.
Globally, silver supply remains tight. London—the world’s major spot trading centre—is facing a shortage of about 4,500 tonnes after large quantities were shipped to New York last month amid fears that Trump might impose import tariffs on silver.
Spot silver currently trades at $48.54 per ounce, with futures at $48.40.
Platinum is priced at $1,604, palladium at $1,401, and rhodium at $7,800 per ounce.
Industrial metals moved mixed on Friday. Copper rose 0.09 per cent to close at $10,807 per tonne, while aluminium fell 0.53 per cent to $2,847.40. Lead, zinc, and tin advanced, whereas nickel declined.
In the international commodities market, rubber gained 0.52 per cent to 173.70 cents per kilogram. Cocoa fell 0.32 per cent to $6,319 per tonne, coffee dropped 2.46 per cent, while tea rose 2.92 per cent. Palm oil climbed 1.12 per cent.
The dollar index moved within a narrow range before closing unchanged at 98.94.
In currency markets, the dollar traded mixed. The euro strengthened to $1.1644, the pound to $1.3331, and the yen weakened to 152.79 per dollar.
Yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds inched higher to 4.02 per cent.
The Indian rupee fluctuated between ₹87.73 and ₹87.85 per US dollar on Friday, closing slightly weaker as the Reserve Bank continued to intervene in the market.
China’s yuan appreciated to 7.12 per dollar.
Crude oil prices continued their upward move on Friday following the inclusion of major Russian oil firms on the US sanctions list. Brent crude closed at $65.99 per barrel, rose to $66.60 this morning, and then eased to $66.05. WTI traded at $61.62, while Murban crude was at $68.90.
Cryptocurrencies rallied over the weekend, driven by President Trump’s pardon of Binance’s founder and the US–China trade agreement.
Bitcoin surpassed $115,000 this morning, Ether climbed to $4,175, and Solana rose to $205.
