Global markets are firmly in risk-on mode as expectations of deeper-than-usual interest rate cuts in both India and the United States push equity indices towards record territory. The Indian market is set for a strong opening, although analysts expect mild profit-booking after the sharp run-up.
The Reserve Bank of India is widely expected to announce a 25-basis-point rate cut next week. A week later, the US Federal Reserve is also likely to cut rates, fuelling further liquidity inflows into equities. This anticipated easing cycle remains the key driver behind market exuberance.
While the likelihood of a Ukraine ceasefire remains evenly balanced, crude oil continues to soften and the dollar index has weakened. However, the absence of a firm trade agreement between India and the US has added renewed pressure on the rupee.
Gift City derivatives indicate a bullish mood, with Nifty closing at 26,386.50 on Wednesday night and touching 26,454 in early trades before easing slightly. These levels point to a strong opening for Indian markets.
European indices rallied for a second consecutive day, supported by expectations of US rate cuts and a rebound in technology stocks. Most major indices gained around 1%. The impact of the United Kingdom’s new budget—which has introduced an additional USD 40 billion in taxes—will be felt in the markets today.
Shares of Denmark’s pharmaceutical major Novo Nordisk surged 4.5% after the company agreed to supply its popular drugs Ozempic and Wegovy to Medicare and Medicaid at 71% lower prices.
Defence stocks also climbed as the revised Ukraine peace framework gained traction and reportedly entered Russian consideration.
US markets rose for the fourth consecutive day as expectations of rate cuts solidified. With Thanksgiving observed today, Wall Street remained shut, but optimism stayed intact.
The probability of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting has risen to 84%. With Jerome Powell expected to retire on 6 May, markets now assume that Kevin Hassett—chair of the Council of Economic Advisers and a strong advocate for aggressive rate cuts—will step in as the next Fed chair. Traders expect at least four rate cuts in 2026, aligned with President Donald Trump’s preference for a 2%–2.5% policy rate.
Alphabet slipped more than 1% as competition intensified in the AI-chip segment, while Nvidia gained 1.37%. AMD, Microsoft and Apple ended higher, even as Amazon and Meta moved lower.
On Wednesday, the Dow Jones rose 314.67 points (0.67%) to close at 47,427.12. The S&P 500 climbed 46.73 points (0.69%) to 6,812.61, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 189.10 points (0.82%) to end at 23,214.69. Early US futures showed marginal gains.
Asian markets extended gains this morning. Japan’s Nikkei jumped 1.30%, helped by a sharp rebound in SoftBank, which rallied more than 5%. Australia’s benchmark index rose 0.40%, while South Korea’s Kospi climbed 1.05%. Hong Kong gained 0.10% and China advanced 0.40%.
Indian equities surged sharply on Wednesday, with Nifty closing just 72 points short of its all-time high. Bank Nifty and the Auto index moved past their previous records. Heavy buying from foreign institutional investors gave bulls firm control, with no late-hour selling pressure seen this time.
Mid-cap and small-cap indices also rallied alongside the frontline benchmarks. Except FMCG, almost every major sector gained over 1%, with the metal index rising more than 2% after indications of a forthcoming safeguard duty on steel imports.
Sensex surged 1,022.50 points (1.21%) to close at 85,609.51. Nifty jumped 320.50 points (1.24%) to end at 26,205.30. Bank Nifty climbed 707.75 points (1.26%) to 59,528.05. The Mid-cap 100 gained 1.27%, while the Small-cap 100 rallied 1.36%.
Market breadth remained strong: on the BSE, 2,721 stocks advanced while 1,453 declined; on the NSE, 2,284 rose against 800 losers.
Foreign investors bought equities worth ₹4,778.03 crore in the cash market on Tuesday, while domestic funds bought ₹6,247.93 crore.
With Nifty eyeing its September 27 record of 26,277.35, traders expect volatility at higher levels. Support lies at 25,950 and 25,860, while resistance is seen at 26,230 and 26,315.
India’s long-cherished USD 5-trillion GDP target may now materialise only in FY29, according to the IMF. Earlier this year, the assessment pointed to FY28 as the likely milestone.
The latest projections suggest India’s GDP will reach USD 4.125 trillion this financial year, far lower than the USD 4.46 trillion estimated two years ago. Weaker nominal GDP growth and a stronger dollar have widened the gap.
For FY28, the IMF now expects USD 4.959 trillion instead of the earlier USD 5.149 trillion. GDP is projected to touch USD 5.462 trillion in FY29 and cross USD 6 trillion in FY30.
The USD 5-trillion dream—announced in 2018—was built on strong pre-COVID momentum. The pandemic, followed by slower-than-expected recovery, has pushed the milestone further out.
Paytm Payments Services has received approval from the Reserve Bank of India to operate as an online payment aggregator, four years after its initial application. Restrictions linked to foreign ownership had delayed the approval.
Salasar Techno Engineering has secured a construction order worth ₹695 crore from Rail Vikas Nigam. Patel Engineering bagged a ₹798 crore contract from South Eastern Coalfields.
In Technopark Phase I, Thiruvananthapuram, the Brigade Group has secured 4.86 acres on a 90-year lease to develop a five-star hotel, a World Trade Centre and other facilities spanning 1.2 million sq. ft.
Gold prices spiked on expectations of a December rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. Markets now believe rate reductions will continue through 2025, especially if Kevin Hassett assumes the Fed chair.
Goldman Sachs analyst Dan Streiven said central bank buying will remain strong next year and predicted a 20% rally in gold to USD 4,900 an ounce.
On Wednesday, gold moved between USD 4,129 and USD 4,174 before closing up USD 33 at USD 4,164.90. Early today, prices touched USD 4,170 before easing to USD 4,153. Holiday-adjusted prices stand at USD 4,145.
Silver closed 3.5% higher at USD 53.31. Platinum is priced at USD 1,616, palladium at USD 1,460 and rhodium at USD 7,700.
Industrial metals moved in mixed directions: copper rose 0.94% to USD 10,978 per tonne, aluminium climbed 1.03% to USD 2,829.23, while nickel and lead declined. Zinc and tin advanced modestly.
Rubber slipped 0.35% internationally, and cocoa dropped 0.45%, while palm oil rose 0.80%.
The dollar index fell further to 99.44 from 99.60. The euro strengthened to USD 1.1608, the pound to USD 1.3256, and the yen to 155.96 per dollar. The Chinese yuan remained stable at 7.08 per dollar, while the Swiss franc firmed to 0.8033.
US bond yields slipped, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 3.992% as investors priced in imminent rate cuts.
The Indian rupee weakened slightly, closing at 89.27. China’s yuan rose to ₹12.59 on Wednesday.
Crude oil prices initially rose 1% after indications that Russia is reviewing the revised Ukraine peace framework. However, prices later eased. Brent closed at USD 63.13 on Wednesday but fell to USD 62.80 this morning. WTI stood at USD 58.32, and UAE’s Murban crude at USD 64.77. Natural gas climbed to USD 4.612.
Cryptocurrencies surged as the likelihood of US rate cuts strengthened. Bitcoin crossed USD 90,900, while Ether touched USD 3,045. Solana climbed to USD 143.
