Commodity markets are heading into another action-packed week, with US inflation data set to take centre stage and energy markets facing a fresh round of supply-demand signals. Gold and silver enter the week with strong momentum after their sharp weekly gains, while crude oil and natural gas remain under pressure amid easing supply concerns and comfortable inventories.
The commodity market is likely to remain macro-driven and volatile, with US inflation data, energy-market reports and Chinese credit data being the key catalysts.
The major event will be the US CPI report on Wednesday, followed by US PPI and Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday. These could influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy, the US dollar and Treasury yields, thereby affecting gold and silver.
For crude oil, traders will closely watch the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, API inventories, EIA crude inventories, OPEC Monthly Report and IEA Monthly Report for signals on supply, demand and inventory conditions. Natural gas will remain sensitive to the US. Natural Gas Storage report, while the WASDE report could create volatility across agricultural commodities.
Gold and silver could see sharp moves around the US CPI and PPI releases as traders reassess the interest-rate outlook. Softer inflation could support precious metals, while stronger inflation could strengthen the dollar and limit upside.
Crude oil has a mildly bullish-to-neutral setup, with OPEC/IEA supply-demand assessments and US inventory data likely to determine whether the recent recovery can continue. Natural gas remains neutral to bearish unless storage data or weather-related demand provides a positive surprise.
Industrial and base metals will also track China's new loans, M2 and total social financing data, as stronger credit growth could signal improved Chinese demand.
Overall, US inflation, energy inventories, OPEC/IEA updates and Chinese credit conditions are the four major themes likely to drive commodity prices during the week.
Gold opened the week at $4,041.18, exactly in line with the previous week's close of $4,041.18, indicating no gap-up or gap-down opening. The metal strengthened sharply during the week, reaching a high of $4,371.89 and settling at $4,341.52, resulting in a strong weekly gain of approximately 7.43%.
The rebound marks a significant improvement in short-term momentum after the recent corrective phase, with softer US labour-market conditions and expectations of a less restrictive Fed outlook supporting demand for bullion. Gold's weekly rise was also among its strongest since January.
From a technical perspective, gold has produced a strong bullish weekly candle and moved decisively above the $4,205 support zone, suggesting that buyers have regained control of the near-term structure. Immediate support is now placed at $4,205, followed by stronger support around $3,940. On the upside, $4,420 is the first resistance level, while $4,595 is the next major hurdle. A sustained move above $4,420 could strengthen the recovery and bring the higher resistance zone into focus.
Outlook for this week: Bullish
Gold is likely to remain supported as markets assess the implications of weaker US employment data for the Federal Reserve's interest-rate path.
The major event next week will be the US CPI report, followed by PPI and jobless claims, which could trigger significant volatility through their impact on the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. Current expectations point to CPI of around 3.4% YoY and core CPI of around 2.5%. A softer-than-expected reading could further strengthen gold, while a hotter inflation print may trigger profit-taking and temporarily pressure prices.
As long as gold holds above $4,205, the near-term bias remains positive, with $4,420 and $4,595 as the key upside levels to watch.
Silver opened the week at $57.58, exactly matching the previous week's close of $57.58, indicating no gap-up or gap-down opening. The metal then staged a strong recovery, rising to a weekly high of $65.15 before settling at $63.47, recording a sharp weekly gain of approximately 10.23%.
The move marks a clear improvement from the recent weakness, with silver benefiting from a softer U.S. dollar, lower Treasury yields and renewed expectations that weaker U.S. labour-market conditions could reduce pressure for tighter Federal Reserve policy.
The latest U.S. employment report showed an unexpected 23,000 decline in payrolls, while wage growth was also below expectations, strengthening the near-term appeal of precious metals.
From a technical perspective, silver has rebounded strongly from the $54.50 support zone and is now testing the $65.50 resistance area. A sustained move above $65.50 could open the way towards the next major resistance at $70.90, while failure to clear this level may trigger some profit-booking. On the downside, $60.90 has become the immediate support, followed by stronger support at $54.50.
The sharp weekly candle indicates that buying interest has returned, but the metal remains vulnerable to high volatility after such a rapid advance.
Outlook for this week: Bullish
Silver is entering the week with positive momentum, but the U.S. CPI and PPI reports will be crucial in determining whether the rally can extend. Softer-than-expected inflation could reinforce expectations of easier Fed policy and provide further support through a weaker dollar and lower yields, while a hotter inflation reading could cause a pullback.
Longer-term fundamentals also remain constructive, with the Silver Institute forecasting another market deficit in 2026. As long as silver holds above $60.90, the near-term structure remains positive, with $65.50 and $70.90 as the key upside levels for the coming week.
In the energy segment, Brent crude oil opened the week at $82.80, marking a gap-down of 9.04% from the previous week's close of $91.03. Selling pressure continued during the week, with prices falling to a low of $78.11 before recovering to settle at $82.37, resulting in a weekly decline of approximately 9.51%.
The sharp correction reflects easing supply-disruption fears and uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while expectations of higher OPEC+ supply also weighed on prices. OPEC+ has approved another 188,000 barrels-per-day production increase from September, adding to concerns over future supply.
From a technical perspective, Brent has recovered from the week's low but remains below the key $86.35 resistance, keeping the short-term structure cautious. Immediate support is placed at $77.30, followed by $70.15. On the upside, $86.35 is the first resistance, while $95.50 remains the major hurdle.
A sustained move above $86.35 would improve the recovery setup, whereas a break below $77.30 could expose the lower support zone.
Outlook for this week: Bearish to neutral
Brent is likely to remain highly sensitive to developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran negotiations. Any progress towards reopening the waterway could keep a lid on prices, while renewed supply disruptions could quickly reverse the decline.
Citi has raised its Q3 Brent forecast to $80 per barrel because of the prolonged uncertainty around the U.S.-Iran situation, highlighting the continuing geopolitical risk premium. At the same time, the OPEC+ supply increase creates an additional bearish influence.
Holding above $77.30 could allow a recovery towards $86.35, but a decisive break below this level would strengthen the downside case towards $70.15.
Natural gas opened the week at $2.7372, marking a gap-down of 2.24% from the previous week's close of $2.80. Prices remained under pressure through the week, slipping to a low of around $2.64 before settling near $2.70, resulting in a weekly decline of approximately 3.39%.
The weakness reflects comfortable U.S. gas inventories, strong production and signs of softer cooling demand. U.S. storage remains above the five-year average, while cooler weather forecasts are reducing expectations for power-sector gas consumption.
Technically, natural gas is approaching a crucial demand area after failing to sustain the recent recovery above the $3.00–$3.20 zone. Immediate support is positioned at $2.62, with the next major floor at $2.37. On the upside, $2.82 is the first resistance, followed by $3.06.
A sustained move above $2.82 would indicate improving buying interest, while a weekly close below $2.62 could expose the market to another leg lower.
Outlook for this week: Bearish to neutral
The near-term bias remains cautious as ample storage and strong production continue to offset demand from LNG exports and the power sector. At the same time, strong U.S. LNG exports remain a supportive factor for the broader gas market, with Cheniere recently raising its 2026 profit outlook on strong LNG demand.
Holding $2.62 could trigger a technical rebound towards $2.82 and potentially $3.06, but failure to defend this support would strengthen the downside case towards $2.37.
Research suppor: Research Desk, MyEquityLab.com,
a SEBI-registered research analyst (Registration No.: INH000023843)
