Commodity markets are likely to remain active this week that begins on August 24 as investors track key US economic data, Federal Reserve signals, dollar movements and geopolitical developments. Gold and silver continue to benefit from safe-haven demand and expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy, while crude oil remains sensitive to Middle East developments, OPEC+ decisions and supply-demand concerns.
The outlook remains bullish for gold and silver, bullish for crude oil with volatility likely to remain high, and neutral for natural gas.
Upcoming US PMI figures, jobless claims, housing data and speeches by Federal Reserve officials could influence expectations about the timing of future interest-rate decisions.
The US Dollar Index will remain an important driver. A weaker dollar generally supports commodity prices, while a stronger dollar could limit gains.
Gold and silver are likely to remain supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty. Weaker-than-expected US economic data could strengthen expectations of lower interest rates and provide further support to bullion. Stronger data, however, could trigger profit booking after the recent rebound.
Crude oil is expected to remain volatile. Traders will monitor developments in the Middle East, OPEC+ production policies and weekly US crude inventory data. Supply disruptions or tighter inventories could support prices, while concerns about slowing global growth and weaker fuel demand could limit gains. China's economic indicators will also remain important given the country's large energy consumption.
Natural gas remains under pressure from comfortable storage levels and mixed weather forecasts, although strong LNG export demand continues to offer underlying support. The weekly US natural gas storage report and temperature forecasts will be key drivers.
Gold opened the week flat at $4,376.16, the same as the previous week's close. After initially remaining under pressure, the metal recovered strongly as buying interest emerged at lower levels. It touched a weekly high of $4,632.22 before closing at $4,602.66, gaining approximately 5.18 percent.
The strong recovery suggests that buyers have regained control following the recent corrective phase.
Technically, gold formed a strong bullish weekly candle and reclaimed the $4,510 zone, improving its short-term structure.
Support: $4,510, followed by $4,340
Resistance: $4,685, followed by $4,840
A sustained move above $4,685 could open the way towards $4,840. Failure to hold $4,510, however, could trigger some profit booking.
Outlook: Bullish. Holding above $4,510 would keep the upward bias intact, while a decisive breakout above $4,685 could strengthen the recovery.
Silver opened the week about 0.10 percent lower at $64.65 against the previous week's close of $64.71. Fresh buying interest emerged after the weak opening, pushing the metal to a high of $70.02 before it settled at $68.95.
Silver gained approximately 6.56 percent for the week, recovering strongly from recent lows and moving towards the upper end of its current trading range.
The weekly chart shows improving momentum after silver moved back above $67.00.
Support: $67.00, followed by $62.00
Resistance: $71.50, followed by $77.00
A sustained close above $71.50 would strengthen the recovery structure and could expose $77.00. Failure to clear $71.50 could result in consolidation between $67 and $71.50.
Outlook: Bullish. Holding above $67.00 keeps the short-term structure constructive. A break below this level would weaken the recovery and bring $62.00 into focus.
Brent crude opened the week about 0.09 percent higher at $88.89 against the previous week's close of $88.81. The contract remained positive through the week, moving between $88.01 and $94.83 before settling at $93.59.
Brent gained approximately 5.38 percent, extending its recovery from the $70–$80 region and moving closer to an important resistance zone.
Technically, Brent has reclaimed the $90 level and is attempting to build momentum above it.
Support: $90.00, followed by $83.50
Resistance: $96.00, followed by $102.00
A sustained move above $96 could extend the recovery towards $102. Rejection at this level, however, could pull prices back towards the $90 support zone.
Outlook: Bullish. The $90 level remains the key pivot. Holding above it would keep the recovery intact, while a decisive breakout above $96 could accelerate the upside towards $102.
Natural gas opened the week about 0.87 percent lower at $2.7359 against the previous week's close of $2.7598. After recovering from the early low, prices strengthened towards the end of the week, touching $2.8972 before settling at $2.8093.
The contract gained approximately 1.79 percent, recovering above the $2.80 mark after absorbing the initial selling pressure.
Technically, natural gas is attempting to form a base following its recent decline.
Support: $2.67, followed by $2.46
Resistance: $2.87, followed by $3.06
A sustained move above $2.87 would improve the short-term structure and could bring $3.06 into focus. Failure to hold $2.67, however, could reopen downside pressure towards $2.46.
Outlook: Neutral. The immediate trigger is $2.87. A decisive breakout could strengthen the recovery, while rejection could keep prices range-bound. A weekly break below $2.67 would turn the near-term bias bearish.
Gold: Bullish
Silver: Bullish
Brent crude: Bullish, with high volatility
Natural gas: Neutral
Note: Research inputs for this article were supplied by Research Desk, MyEquityLab.com, a SEBI Registered research analyst
(Registration No.: INH000023843)
Disclaimer: This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or commodity. Investors should consult a qualified financial adviser and conduct their own due diligence before making investment decisions.
