Commodity markets enter the week facing a mix of inflation concerns, central bank signals and uncertainty over global economic growth. Investors will closely track US inflation data, comments from Federal Reserve officials and key business activity indicators from major economies for clues on the direction of interest rates and commodity demand.
While gold and silver remain vulnerable to a stronger dollar and higher borrowing costs, crude oil prices will be influenced by inventory trends and demand expectations, and natural gas is expected to react to storage data and seasonal consumption patterns. Against this backdrop, volatility is likely to remain elevated across major commodity segments.
US Core PCE inflation data, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge.
Speeches by Federal Reserve officials Christopher Waller, John Williams and Neel Kashkari.
Manufacturing and services PMI data from the US, Eurozone, China and India.
China's Loan Prime Rate decision and fresh PMI readings.
Weekly US crude oil and natural gas inventory reports.
A higher-than-expected US inflation reading could strengthen the dollar and reinforce expectations that interest rates will remain higher for longer, creating pressure on gold and silver prices.
In energy markets, expectations of continued drawdowns in US crude inventories could support oil prices, particularly if global demand remains stable and geopolitical concerns ease further following recent progress in US-Iran discussions.
Natural gas prices are likely to be driven by storage data and weather-related demand forecasts. A larger-than-expected inventory build could limit upside momentum.
Gold and silver are expected to remain volatile amid inflation and interest-rate developments.
Crude oil could find support from tightening inventories and improving geopolitical sentiment.
Natural gas is likely to react mainly to storage levels and seasonal demand expectations.
Gold opened the week at $4,210.07 and closed near $4,155.57, registering a weekly decline of about 1.5 percent.
The metal remained under pressure as investors reacted to the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on future rate cuts, resilient US economic data and a relatively firm dollar.
Support: $4,098.75 and $4,000
Resistance: $4,219 and $4,329
Holding above $4,098.75 could help stabilise prices and support a recovery towards $4,219. A sustained move below support could trigger further selling pressure towards the $4,000 zone.
Silver started the week at $65.77 and ended at $64.83, posting a weekly loss of nearly 1.4 percent.
Weakness in industrial metals sentiment and firm economic data weighed on prices.
Support: $61.50 and $54.40
Resistance: $68 and $73.10
A sustained hold above $61.50 could encourage a rebound towards $68. A decisive break below support may accelerate the decline towards lower levels.
Brent crude opened at $85 and settled near $80.37, recording a weekly decline of around 7.4 percent.
Market sentiment remained cautious as traders balanced concerns about slowing global demand against supply-side developments.
Support: $75.75 and $66.80
Resistance: $85 and $92.80
Holding above $75.75 could encourage stabilisation and a rebound towards $85. Continued weakness may expose the market to a deeper correction towards $66.80.
Natural gas opened at $3.11 and closed around $3.24, gaining about 2.2 percent during the week.
Prices recovered from lower levels as buying interest emerged near key support zones.
Support: $2.98 and $2.67
Resistance: $3.40 and $3.60
Sustained trading above $2.98 could strengthen bullish sentiment and support a move towards $3.40 and potentially $3.60. Failure to hold support may result in renewed range-bound trading and a retest of lower support levels.
Weather forecasts
US storage data
Power-sector demand trends
Note: Research support for this article was provided by the Research Desk, MyEquityLab.com, a SEBI registered research analyst (Registration No: INH000023843)
