Commodity markets are set for a volatile week as interest-rate expectations, dollar movements and Middle East tensions continue to drive sentiment. Gold and silver are likely to retain a bullish-to-neutral bias, while crude oil remains firmly bullish but vulnerable to sharp swings. Natural gas, meanwhile, faces pressure from rising inventories and a sizeable storage surplus.
Markets will closely track:
FOMC minutes and US economic data
China’s industrial production and retail sales
US crude oil inventory data
US natural gas storage data
Developments in US-Iran relations
The situation around the Strait of Hormuz
China’s July economic data and its impact on industrial commodity demand
Gold and silver could extend their recent recovery, supported by:
Softer US inflation and shifting expectations on Federal Reserve policy
A weaker US dollar
Continued geopolitical uncertainty
Renewed investor interest after the recent consolidation
Gold gained around 0.91 percent during the week, while silver advanced about 2.61 percent. However, profit booking after the recent rally could cap gains.
Key triggers for precious metals include the FOMC minutes, US industrial production, jobless claims and PMI data.
Crude oil is expected to remain bullish but highly volatile. Tanker attacks, stalled US-Iran negotiations and continuing concerns over the Strait of Hormuz are keeping supply risks elevated.
Brent crude ended the week near $88.81, gaining nearly 7.82 percent.
The upside, however, could be limited by:
Higher US crude inventories
Concerns over global demand
Potential easing of geopolitical risk
Natural gas remains neutral to bearish despite a modest weekly gain. The latest 36 Bcf storage build has pushed the surplus over the five-year average to around 198 Bcf.
LNG demand and weather conditions could provide intermittent support, but the inventory overhang remains a key concern.
Gold: Bullish
Silver: Bullish
Crude oil: Bullish/volatile
Natural gas: Neutral to bearish
Gold opened the week at $4,348.55, up 0.16 percent from the previous close of $4,341.52. It maintained a positive tone and settled at $4,376.16, recording a weekly gain of about 0.80 percent.
The recovery suggests renewed buying interest after the recent consolidation.
Immediate support: $4,275
Strong support: $4,120
Immediate resistance: $4,455
Major resistance: $4,595
Gold has regained momentum after finding demand around $4,120. A sustained move above $4,455 could strengthen the recovery and open the way towards $4,595.
However, failure to hold $4,275 could bring the metal back towards the lower support zone.
Outlook: Bullish
Silver began the week at $63.60, compared with the previous close of $63.47, and settled at $64.71. It gained approximately 1.95 percent during the week.
The recovery indicates improving buying interest, with prices moving back towards the mid-$60 range.
Immediate support: $62.00
Strong support: $57.50
Immediate resistance: $67.50
Major resistance: $71.50
Holding above $62 could support another attempt towards $67.50. A breakout above that level could extend the rally towards $71.50.
A fall below $62, however, would weaken the recovery and bring $57.50 into focus.
Outlook: Bullish
Brent crude opened the week at $83.70, up 1.61 percent from the previous close of $82.37. It rallied through the week to settle at $88.81, registering a strong weekly gain of approximately 7.82 percent.
The sharp recovery reflects renewed buying interest after the recent decline, with prices reclaiming the $83.50 region.
Immediate support: $83.50
Major support: $77.50
Immediate resistance: $92.00
Major resistance: $99.00
Holding above $83.50 keeps the recovery structure positive and could allow Brent to test $92. A decisive breakout above $92 could open the way towards $99.
A fall below $83.50 would weaken the setup and increase the risk of a move towards $77.50.
Outlook: Bullish
Natural gas opened at $2.7397, compared with the previous close of $2.7052, and initially moved higher. It later lost momentum but still settled at $2.7598, gaining approximately 2.02 percent for the week.
The contract remains within a broader range, with upside momentum capped below the $2.87 level.
Immediate support: $2.67
Strong support: $2.46
Immediate resistance: $2.87
Major resistance: $3.06
A close above $2.87 would improve the technical structure and expose $3.06. Conversely, a decisive break below $2.67 could increase downside pressure towards $2.46.
Outlook: Neutral
Note: Research support for this article was provided by the Research Desk, MyEquityLab.com, a SEBI-registered research analyst (registration No. INH000023843)
