The Indian stock market is expected to begin Friday’s session with caution. Despite four consecutive days of strong gains, confidence about the next leg of the rally remains muted. Bulls, however, are hopeful of testing last September’s record highs. Yet this optimism may fade quickly if foreign investors continue to sell.
Chief economic adviser Anantha Nageswaran said yesterday that India and the United States could reach a trade agreement by November, a statement that gave markets additional strength. He noted that the punitive 25% tariff might be withdrawn and replaced with a lower duty of 15–20%, in line with other Asian peers. While this could provide significant relief to exporters, reports suggest India may have to concede on agricultural items such as soyabeans and maize.
In global commodities, crude oil prices are falling, while the US dollar is strengthening. On Thursday, the rupee weakened by 0.35% against the dollar as the greenback climbed.
In the derivatives segment, Gift Nifty closed Thursday evening at 25,459.00 before inching up to 25,475 on Friday morning. Indicators point towards a mildly negative start for Indian equities.
European equities ended Thursday’s session with strong gains after the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged, a widely expected decision given the backdrop of high inflation. Among stocks, Novo Nordisk jumped 6.2% after research confirmed the weight-loss drug Wegovy delivered notable benefits. Zealand Pharma rose 8% after Deutsche Bank raised its target price.
US markets closed higher on Thursday after a brief period of volatility, with all three major indices hitting record levels. Small-cap stocks, represented by the Russell 2000 index, also recorded fresh highs, reflecting the greater benefit they derive from lower interest rates.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 124.10 points (0.27%) to end at 46,142.42. The S&P 500 gained 31.61 points (0.48%) to close at 6,631.96, while the Nasdaq Composite surged 209.40 points (0.94%) to settle at 22,470.73.
Futures trading suggests US indices will remain in positive territory, with the Dow up 0.12%, the S&P up 0.09% and the Nasdaq up 0.03%.
Asian markets are also buoyant, with Japan’s Nikkei correcting its earlier record by climbing 1.2%. South Korean and Australian markets moved higher, while Hong Kong and Chinese indices showed smaller gains.
In a surprise move, Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment in Intel Corporation. The news sent Intel shares soaring by 22.77%. Intel will now manufacture data-centre processors and personal computers using Nvidia chips.
The US government had recently acquired a 10% stake in Intel, which has since gained 55% in value following the latest rally. Japan’s SoftBank has also invested $2 billion in the company.
The development recalls an episode two decades ago, when then Intel CEO Paul Otellini attempted to acquire Nvidia for $20 billion, only for Intel’s board to block the deal. Nvidia is now worth $4.28 trillion — almost 30 times Intel’s market value of $143 billion.
Indian indices extended their upward march on Thursday, buoyed by the prospect of an early US-India trade agreement and the Federal Reserve’s rate cut. The Sensex crossed the 83,000 mark for the first time since July 10, climbing 320.25 points (0.39%) to end at 83,013.96. The Nifty rose 93.35 points (0.37%) to close at 25,423.60.
Bank Nifty added 234.15 points (0.42%) to finish at 55,727.45, while the Nifty Midcap 100 rose 224.65 points (0.38%) to 59,073.20. The Smallcap 100 index advanced 53.75 points (0.29%) to 18,476.95.
Market breadth stayed positive, with gainers outnumbering losers on both the NSE and BSE. Foreign investors bought shares worth ₹366.69 crore in the cash segment, while domestic funds purchased stocks worth ₹3,326.56 crore.
If the Nifty clears resistance at 25,550, traders believe it could head towards 25,670–25,750. Immediate support is seen at 25,355 and 25,285, with hurdles likely at 25,445 and 25,525.
Sebi has given a clean chit to the Adani Group in connection with the Hindenburg report, stating there is no evidence of wrongdoing. The decision is expected to benefit Adani’s listed companies.
Maruti Suzuki slashed car prices sharply, making the S-Presso the cheapest model in the country. Prices were cut by ₹1,29,600, bringing it down to ₹3,49,900. The Alto K10 saw a ₹1,07,600 reduction to ₹3,69,900, while the Grand Vitara now costs ₹10,76,500. Sales of small cars have slumped 35% this year, and the move is aimed at reviving demand.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley lowered their target price for Yes Bank to ₹17, down from its Thursday close of ₹21.15. While Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation has purchased a 24% stake in Yes Bank, analysts believe the lender still has a long road to profitability.
Gold prices weakened as the stronger dollar dented demand. The dollar index rose by half a per cent on Thursday, pushing spot gold down by $15.40 to $3,641 an ounce. Prices briefly dipped to $3,635 on Friday morning before rebounding to $3,651.80.
In Kerala, 22-carat gold dropped ₹400 per sovereign to ₹81,520 on Thursday. Silver hovered at $41.22 an ounce.
Base metals moved in mixed directions: copper was flat at $9,895 per tonne, aluminium gained 0.03% to $2,690.87, while tin and zinc declined. Nickel and lead firmed.
Agricultural commodities showed volatility. Rubber fell 0.86% to 173.20 cents a kilo. Cocoa slumped 2.18% to $7,223.70 a tonne, while coffee rose 1.26% and tea 2.39%. Palm oil slipped 0.31%.
The dollar index climbed to 97.60 before closing at 97.35, and strengthened further to 97.43 in early Friday trade. The euro slipped to $1.1786, the pound to $1.3546, and the yen to 147.95 per dollar.
Bond yields edged higher as well, with the 10-year US Treasury note yielding 4.11%.
The Indian rupee closed 31 paise weaker at 88.13 against the dollar, ending a four-day rally. The Chinese yuan also fell, to 7.11 per dollar.
Crude oil remained soft. Brent settled 0.75% lower at $67.44 a barrel, inching up only slightly to $67.49 on Friday morning. WTI was at $63.60 and Murban crude at $70.28. Natural gas prices dipped half a per cent.
Cryptocurrencies, which had surged 3% the previous day, corrected on Thursday. Bitcoin spiked to $18,000 before falling sharply to $117,300 on Friday morning. Ether traded at $4,615, while Solana stood at $248.
In a quirky development, a statue of Donald Trump holding Bitcoin was unveiled outside the US Capitol yesterday.
