Despite the continuing conflict in West Asia and elevated crude prices, Indian markets are expected to begin the week with a relief rally.
The war in West Asia shows no signs of easing, and fears persist that oil prices could climb further. However, crude did not spike sharply this morning. Diplomatic efforts led by Gulf countries to push for a ceasefire appear to be preventing extreme reactions in global markets.
Both US President Donald Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said there are currently no formal negotiations.
Trump has urged allied nations to deploy naval forces to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but the appeal has not received positive responses so far. Iran’s offer to allow oil shipments for buyers trading in yuan has also drawn little interest.
Trump has warned that he may postpone a planned visit to China if countries fail to cooperate in reopening the shipping lane.
Meanwhile, India will release February wholesale inflation data and foreign trade figures today. Market expectations are that both sets of numbers may be disappointing.
In derivatives trading at GIFT City, GIFT Nifty closed at 23,203.00 on Friday night. This morning it moved between 23,176 and 23,367, signalling a potentially strong opening for the Nifty.
The US Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday.
Trump has urged the Fed to cut interest rates quickly in light of the geopolitical tensions. However, markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged at this meeting.
US consumer inflation rose 2.4 percent last month, while core inflation increased to 2.5 percent, indicating renewed inflationary pressure.
US GDP growth slowed sharply to just 0.7 percent in the October–December quarter. Growth for 2025 is estimated at 2.2 percent, compared with 2.8 percent in 2024.
Several economists now warn that the US could drift toward stagflation — a combination of weak growth and high inflation.
Wall Street declined again on Friday, with all three major indices hitting their lowest levels of 2026.
Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 119.38 points (0.26 percent) to 46,558.47
S&P 500 dropped 40.43 points (0.61 percent) to 6,632.19
Nasdaq Composite lost 206.62 points (0.93 percent) to 22,105.36
US futures moved higher this morning:
Dow futures up 178 points (0.38 percent)
S&P 500 futures up 0.45 percent
Nasdaq futures up 0.50 percent
European markets also ended sharply lower on Friday.
Asian markets are mixed today. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined about 0.50 percent, while South Korea’s KOSPI gained around 0.75 percent. Markets in Hong Kong and China opened weaker.
The BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 have fallen more than 10 percent from their January highs, entering correction territory.
Since the war began, the indices have declined about 8.8 percent. The market capitalisation of companies listed on the BSE has dropped by ₹34 lakh-crore in just two weeks.
Friday’s closing levels:
Sensex fell 1,470.50 points (1.93 percent) to 74,563.92
Nifty declined 488.05 points (2.06 percent) to 23,151.10
Nifty Bank dropped 1,343.10 points (2.44 percent) to 53,757.85
Broader markets also fell sharply:
Nifty Midcap 100 down 2.65 percent
Nifty Smallcap 100 down 2.51 percent
Market breadth remained weak.
On the BSE: 858 stocks rose, 3,439 declined
On the NSE: 578 stocks rose, 2,644 fell
Foreign investors continued to sell. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers worth ₹10,716.64 crore in the cash market on Friday.
Domestic institutional investors bought shares worth ₹9,977.42 crore.
FIIs sold ₹35,052 crore last week
Total FII selling so far this month: ₹64,420 crore
Gold prices remain volatile. After falling 1.2 percent on Friday to $5,019.70 per ounce, prices fluctuated between $4,968 and $5,022 this morning before stabilising near $5,002.
Gold had touched $5,595 on January 28 before entering a downward trend.
Factors weighing on gold include:
a stronger dollar
reduced purchases by central banks
large outflows from gold ETFs
Analysts say a fall below $5,000 could trigger further declines.
Silver also continued to weaken. It dropped 4 percent on Friday to $80.70 per ounce and slipped to about $78.93 this morning.
Other precious metals:
Platinum: $2,045
Palladium: $1,541
Rhodium: $11,200
In Kerala, 22-carat gold declined over the weekend to ₹1,17,080.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange of India, gold closed at ₹1,58,400 per 10 grams and silver at ₹2,59,279 per kilogram on Friday.
Most industrial metals declined on Friday.
Copper fell 1.08 percent to $12,757.75 per tonne
Aluminium dropped 2.13 percent to $3,440.03
Zinc rose slightly, while nickel, lead and tin declined.
Natural rubber fell 0.35 percent in international markets to 198.10 cents per kg.
Synthetic rubber rose 1.82 percent to 15,850 yuan per tonne.
Other commodities:
Cocoa fell 0.54 percent to $3,297 per tonne
Tea prices dropped sharply by 6.59 percent to ₹149.61 per kg
Coffee declined 2.31 percent
Palm oil rose to 4,572 Malaysian ringgit per tonne
Prices of polyethylene, polypropylene and PVC rose up to 3 percent. Urea gained 0.93 percent to $599.50 per tonne.
The US Dollar Index closed at 100.36 on Friday and eased slightly to 100.26 this morning.
Currencies:
Euro: $1.1445
Pound: $1.3255
Japanese yen: 159.47 per dollar
Chinese yuan: 6.90 per dollar
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury remained at 4.261 percent.
The rupee declined again on Friday.
The dollar rose 27 paise to close at ₹92.46. The currency is likely to weaken further today.
In the offshore non-deliverable forward (NDF) market:
Dollar touched ₹92.58
Chinese yuan rose to ₹13.54
Euro slipped to ₹105.86
These trends may influence today’s currency trading in India.
On Saturday morning, the US carried out air strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island, through which nearly 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports pass. The strikes reportedly targeted military facilities rather than oil infrastructure.
Trump has warned that oil installations could be targeted in future.
Despite this, oil prices did not surge sharply this morning.
Brent crude closed Friday at $103.14 per barrel
It briefly crossed $105 before easing to about $103.6
West Texas Intermediate moved above $100 before slipping to $98.10
UAE’s Murban crude traded around $114.36.
Cryptocurrencies continued to move higher.
Bitcoin approached $72,500
Ether traded above $2,170
Solana moved above $92
(March 13, Friday)
Sensex: 74,563.92 (-1.93%)
Nifty 50: 23,151.10 (-2.06%)
Nifty Bank: 53,757.85 (-2.44%)
Nifty Midcap 100: 54,761.10 (-2.65%)
Nifty Smallcap 100: 15,895.25 (-2.51%)
Dow Jones: 46,558.47 (-0.26%)
S&P 500: 6,632.19 (-0.61%)
Nasdaq: 22,105.36 (-0.93%)
Dollar: ₹92.46 (+₹0.27)
Gold (ounce): $5,019.70 (-$60.70)
Gold (Kerala, 22K): ₹1,17,080
Brent crude: $103.14 (+$2.68)
