The Indian market opened September on an enthusiastic note, though only modest gains are expected today. No fresh triggers have emerged for the market, and global cues are not particularly supportive.
Investors are confident that the GST Council, which begins tomorrow, will announce tax cuts. However, uncertainty remains around the list of products that may be shifted into the 40% slab. There is also concern about which goods and services will attract a cess to compensate states for revenue loss. Decisions will be announced on Wednesday evening.
GST collections in August rose 6.5% year-on-year. Refunds fell 21%, which helped net tax revenue rise 10.7%.
India’s factory output PMI touched an 18-year high in August, at 59.3 compared to 59.1 in July.
Expectations of GST cuts dented car sales in August, which fell 7%.
On the external side, the current account slipped into deficit in the June quarter. Against a surplus of $13.5 billion in the previous quarter, there was a deficit of $8.6 billion, driven by weak merchandise exports and a widening trade gap.
In derivatives trade, GIFT Nifty closed at 24,745.00 on Monday night and rose to 24,760 this morning, signalling that the Indian market may open with marginal gains today.
European markets rose on Monday. Political uncertainty kept France’s index nearly flat, while Norway’s $13.5 billion warship deal with the UK lifted defence stocks. Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk gained after its drug Wegovy outperformed rivals in heart disease treatment trials. Wegovy is also used as a weight-loss drug.
Nestlé dismissed CEO Lauren Felix over an inappropriate relationship with a subordinate, appointing Philipp Navratil as the new chief executive.
The US market was shut on Monday for Labour Day.
US futures ticked slightly higher this morning, with the Dow up 0.02%, the S&P 0.04% and the Nasdaq 0.07%. However, an appeals court ruling that tariffs imposed under emergency powers were invalid has heightened market uncertainty.
Asian markets are trading mixed. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.40% and South Korea also gained, while Australia’s index slipped.
A surprise GDP growth print, diplomatic gains at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and progress in India–China talks lifted Indian markets sharply on Monday. Benchmarks rose around 0.8%, while mid- and small-cap indices gained nearly 2%. Though foreign investors continued to sell, the pace of selling slowed compared to earlier sessions.
Barring media and pharma, all sectors ended higher. Hopes of GST cuts boosting vehicle sales sent the Nifty Auto index up 2.80%. Metals, IT, consumer durables, oil & gas, and realty also advanced strongly.
Reliance Industries fell despite brokerages hiking price targets after Jio Platforms’ IPO announcement. Investors were disappointed that Reliance shareholders will not directly receive Jio shares, which will be available only through IPO subscriptions.
Ola Electric shares soared 15.6% to ₹62.48, taking five-day gains to 29%, driven by production-linked incentives and expectations of stronger EV sales after GST cuts.
Zydus Wellness surged 10.7% following the acquisition of UK-based supplements company Comfort Click. Ather Energy jumped 8.7% after unveiling a new electric scooter. Companies also gained on hopes of renewed rare earth supplies from China.
On Monday, the Nifty closed up 198.20 points (0.81%) at 24,625.05. The Sensex rose 554.84 points (0.70%) to 80,364.49, while the Bank Nifty climbed 346.80 points (0.65%) to 54,002.45. The Midcap 100 index soared 1,098.10 points (1.97%) to 56,825.50, and the Smallcap 100 gained 271.10 points (1.57%) to 17,498.10.
Market breadth was positive, with 2,705 BSE stocks advancing against 1,495 declines. On the NSE, 2,128 stocks rose while 935 fell.
As many as 113 NSE stocks hit 52-week highs, while 83 touched 52-week lows. 115 were locked in upper circuits and 75 in lower circuits.
Foreign investors sold equities worth ₹1,703.73 crore in the cash market on Friday, while domestic funds purchased ₹4,316.07 crore.
Analysts noted that the Nifty closing near its 100-day exponential moving average at 24,630 was encouraging. A sustained move above this level could push it towards 25,000, while support lies at 24,490 and 24,365. Resistance is expected at 24,645 and 24,695.
Gold’s rally continues, with traders watching whether it can breach the $3,500 an ounce mark, where technical resistance is expected. Futures have already touched $3,553, indicating bullish momentum. Spot gold closed up $27.60 at $3,476.30 an ounce on Monday, and rose to $3,484 this morning.
In Kerala, 22-carat gold prices climbed ₹680 on Monday to ₹77,640 per sovereign, with further gains likely today in line with global trends.
Silver briefly touched $41 an ounce on Monday before closing at $40.49. It traded higher at $40.68 this morning, marking the highest level in 14 years. Persistent supply shortages for a fifth consecutive year are fuelling the surge.
Base metals were mixed: copper held steady at $9,804.40 a tonne, aluminium fell 0.38% to $2,605.15, while zinc, nickel and lead rose. Tin declined over 1%.
Rubber rose 0.20% to 173.60 cents/kg, cocoa hit $7,635 a tonne, coffee gained 0.31%, tea eased slightly, and palm oil remained flat.
The dollar index slid to 97.73 this morning on expectations of US rate cuts.
The greenback weakened further in currency markets, with the euro at $1.1705 and the pound at $1.3535. The yen held at 147.28 per dollar.
US 10-year bond yields rose to 4.259% as prices fell.
The rupee ended Monday unchanged at 88.20 per dollar, after swinging to a low of 88.33 intraday.
China’s yuan held at 7.13 per dollar, with the People’s Bank of China setting a midpoint of 7.10. Markets expect Beijing to allow the yuan to strengthen slightly.
Crude oil prices firmed again. Brent rose to $68.33 this morning, WTI was at $64.80, and Murban crude at $71.30. Natural gas prices edged lower.
Cryptocurrencies remained weak. Bitcoin hovered around $109,000, Ether stayed below $4,300, and Solana, after surging near $220 in recent days, slipped back to $197.
