The bulls continue to hold on to hopes of a strong rally, convinced that the Nifty could break its record soon. But the market remains surrounded by layers of uncertainty. The biggest concern is the India–US trade agreement, which is yet to be announced. Export data from October already showed a sharp decline, and the absence of a deal could worsen the current account deficit. These worries were reflected on Friday, when the rupee weakened significantly to close at ₹89.48 against the dollar. Without firm intervention from the Reserve Bank of India, the dollar could cross ₹90, a level the market fears could intensify volatility.
This week, the market will move largely on expectations of a rate cut. The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee is widely expected to reduce the repo rate by 25 basis points next week. The US Federal Reserve will announce its decision on December 10.
Ukraine peace negotiations are also expected to influence global markets, including India. A breakthrough could lead to the lifting of sanctions against Russia and the removal of the 25% punitive tariff—moves that could ease global trade tensions.
On Tuesday, US retail sales and wholesale price inflation figures for October will be released. Wednesday will bring preliminary third-quarter GDP data, personal consumption expenditure (the key inflation measure), weekly jobless claims, and new home-sales data. The US markets will remain closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving.
India will release its second-quarter GDP and October industrial-production data on Friday. India grew 7.8% in Q1, and SBI Research expects a 7.5% expansion in Q2. Rating agencies Ind-Ra and ICRA expect 7.2% and 7% respectively, while the RBI estimates 7%.
Derivatives trading in GIFT City saw the Nifty close at 26,185 on Friday night, slipping to 26,150 this morning. The indication is that Indian markets may open with mild gains.
European markets closed lower on Friday as global uncertainty rattled investors. Semiconductor and chip-equipment manufacturers fell sharply. Peace negotiations in Ukraine pushed defence stocks lower for the fourth consecutive day.
The US markets saw significant gains on Friday, though the week still ended in the red. The Dow and S&P 500 fell 2% each for the week, while Nasdaq declined 2.7%. For November so far, the S&P is down 3.5%, Nasdaq 6.1%, and the Dow an extraordinary 28%. Concerns about the AI sector and expectations of delayed rate cuts have weighed heavily on sentiment.
Even Nvidia’s impressive results failed to lift the market on Thursday. Gains on Friday came after a statement by Christopher Waller—Federal Reserve Governor and an ally of Chair Jerome Powell—hinting that a December rate cut remains possible. Still, indices closed far below their intraday highs, and Nvidia ended the day 3% lower, signalling that AI-related concerns are far from over.
The Dow Jones rose 493.15 points (1.08%) to close at 46,245.41. The S&P 500 gained 64.23 points (0.98%) to end at 6,602.99. Nasdaq climbed 195.04 points (0.88%) to close at 22,273.08. US futures are trading higher this morning.
Asian markets opened higher today. Macquarie Asset Management has begun efforts to acquire Australian logistics firm Qube Holdings, offering a 28% premium per share. Qube’s stock jumped 20% in early trade, helping lift the Australian market by 1%. South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.3%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 1%, and Chinese indices inched up by 0.10%.
Despite hopes of crossing record levels, Indian markets slipped sharply on Friday. The fall in the rupee and uncertainty over the India–US trade deal rattled investors. Foreign Institutional Investors, who had turned buyers earlier in the week, resumed selling.
Metal stocks, PSU banks, real estate, consumer durables, IT, oil and defence stocks all ended lower. Mid-caps and small-caps saw steeper declines. The Sensex fell 400.76 points (0.47%) to close at 85,231.92. The Nifty dropped 124 points (0.47%) to 26,068.15. Bank Nifty slid 480 points (0.81%) to 58,807.70. The Nifty Midcap 100 fell 1.13% and the Smallcap 100 index dropped 1.22%.
The breadth remained negative: 1,197 BSE stocks advanced while 2,981 declined. On NSE, 779 stocks gained while 2,297 declined. Fifty-one stocks hit 52-week highs while 200 reached 52-week lows. Eight hit upper circuits and six hit lower circuits.
FIIs were net sellers of ₹1,766.05 crore in the cash market, while domestic funds bought ₹3,161.61 crore on Friday.
Global cues this morning—Asian gains, US futures in green—are positive for the bulls. If the Nifty crosses 26,100, it may move towards 26,300–26,500 this week. A fall below 26,000 could push it to 25,800 support. For today, support is seen at 26,045 and 26,015, while resistance lies at 26,145 and 26,180.
HDFC AMC will trade ex-bonus on Wednesday. Tyrocare Technologies’ bonus-issue record date was last Friday, with a 1:2 bonus ratio. TCS faces another setback in the 2019 Transamerica dispute, with an appeals court upholding the lower court order directing the company to pay USD 19.4 million (₹1,736 crore). On December 22, InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) will replace Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles in the Sensex 30.
As the year draws to a close, gold markets appear positioned for a fresh rally. Three major factors are driving momentum. First, strong expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut. Christopher Waller’s dovish comments pushed the probability of a December rate cut to nearly 70%. Second, central banks continue to buy gold aggressively. While most countries hold around 20% of reserves in gold, China holds only 8% and is expected to keep accumulating, much of it without public disclosure. Third, gold ETFs have been buying more gold as investor interest grows. ETF inflows are up 17% this year.
Gold has already risen 55% this year, and some analysts predict prices could reach USD 5,000 per ounce next year. Last week, gold fluctuated between USD 4,000 and USD 4,100. Survey data shows 61% of market participants expect higher prices this week, 19% expect declines, and 20% foresee sideways movement. Of 13 gold analysts, two expect gains, four expect declines and seven expect consolidation.
Gold closed at USD 4,066.20 on Friday, before moving between USD 4,078 and USD 4,048 this morning. In the spot market, gold closed at USD 49.94 per gram on Friday and fluctuated between USD 50.42 and USD 49.70 this morning. Platinum stands at USD 1,522, palladium at USD 1,369, and rhodium at USD 7,630.
Industrial metals fell on Friday as Chinese import data weakened. Copper dropped 0.96% to USD 10,685.50 per tonne, aluminium fell 1% to USD 2,786, and nickel, tin, zinc and lead also declined. Rubber prices fell 0.81% internationally, while cocoa rose 0.47%. Coffee fell and tea remained unchanged. Palm oil dropped 2.05%.
The dollar index closed at 100.18 on Friday, rising slightly this morning. The euro weakened to USD 1.1504 and the pound to USD 1.3092. The yen strengthened to 156.67 per dollar. China’s currency held steady at 7.11 yuan. The Swiss franc stood at 0.8082 per dollar.
Bond yields fell as expectations of a US rate cut increased. The 10-year US Treasury yield slipped to 4.067%.
The Indian rupee suffered its steepest fall since May 8, weakening 98 paise to touch 89.665 before closing at 89.48. Uncertainty over the trade deal and the RBI’s decision not to defend a fixed rupee level triggered the decline. Governor Sanjay Malhotra indicated that the RBI would not defend any specific rate. Only after the rupee hit 89.50 did the RBI intervene by selling dollars.
A sustained drop in exports would widen India’s trade deficit, current account deficit and worsen the balance of payments. The US is demanding concessions, but India is unwilling to alter its defence ties with Russia. If the standoff continues, the dollar could cross ₹90.
With Friday’s fall, the rupee has now weakened 4.5% in 2025—one of the worst performances among emerging-market currencies. China’s currency climbed to ₹12.58.
Efforts to end the Ukraine war continued to push crude prices lower. Brent crude fell to USD 62.56 on Friday and dropped further to USD 62.44 this morning. WTI is at USD 57.94 and UAE’s Murban crude at USD 64.09. Natural-gas prices stand at USD 4.454.
Cryptocurrencies continued to slide as major investors exited positions. Bitcoin, which fell to USD 80,760 on Friday, later recovered to USD 87,700. Ether remains below USD 2,850 after falling to USD 2,620. Solana, which slipped to USD 122, has recovered slightly to USD 133.
