The discussions held in Washington and New York between India and the United States showed little progress, fuelling concerns that Indian markets may open on a weaker note. Technology stocks, which slumped sharply yesterday on the H-1B visa issue, may stage a relief rally, though signals from the ADR market offered no cheer. Infosys and Wipro failed to point towards any gains. After two days of steady buying, foreign investors turned heavy sellers yesterday, which has also dampened sentiment.
In Washington, commerce minister Piyush Goyal met commerce secretary Howard Lutnick, while in New York, external affairs minister S. Jaishankar held talks with US secretary of state Marco Rubio. Jaishankar is also making efforts to meet President Donald Trump. However, the discussions produced no tangible agreement, leaving bilateral ties at one of their lowest points in recent memory. The United States has given no indication of easing its tough stance on trade.
Despite persistent conflicts in West Asia and Ukraine, crude oil prices have remained steady. Meanwhile, hints that the US Federal Reserve may cut rates further have driven gold sharply higher, with morning prices crossing $3,750 per ounce.
In the derivatives market, GIFT Nifty closed at 25,305 on Monday night but slipped to 25,251 this morning, signalling a weak opening for Indian equities.
European shares closed lower on Monday, with automobile stocks dragging indices down. Porsche cut its profit forecast for the year, leading to a 7.2% fall in its share price, while Volkswagen, its major shareholder, dropped 7.1%.
In contrast, American markets ended Monday at fresh records, with all three major indices hitting new peaks. Technology stocks led the rally. Oracle’s share price jumped 6% after Safra Catz was elevated to executive vice-chairperson and two new co-chief executives were appointed. Nvidia rose 3.93% and Apple surged 4.31%. Nvidia also disclosed a planned $10 billion investment in OpenAI.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 66.27 points, or 0.14%, to close at 46,381.54. The S&P 500 added 29.39 points, or 0.44%, to end at 6,693.75, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 157.50 points, or 0.70%, to finish at 22,788.98.
Futures trading indicates muted moves, with Dow up 0.05%, S&P 0.03% and Nasdaq 0.02%. Asian markets also remained buoyant today, although Japanese exchanges were shut for a holiday. South Korean and Australian stocks gained ground, while Hong Kong and Chinese markets slipped amid news of a super typhoon hitting Hong Kong.
The H-1B visa issue triggered heavy selling in Indian markets yesterday. After opening deep in the red, indices briefly recovered but slipped again towards the close. Nifty dropped 124.70 points (0.49%) to settle at 25,202.35, while Sensex shed 466.26 points (0.56%) to end at 82,159.97. Bank Nifty lost 174.10 points (0.31%) to finish at 55,284.75. Midcap 100 fell 394.85 points (0.66%) and Smallcap 100 slumped 215.65 points (1.16%).
Market breadth turned negative with 1,688 advances against 2,612 declines on the BSE. On the NSE, 1,184 stocks rose while 1,919 fell. Interestingly, 137 shares hit 52-week highs, while 64 touched yearly lows.
Foreign portfolio investors sold equities worth ₹2,910.09 crore in the cash market, while domestic funds absorbed ₹2,582.63 crore. Technical charts suggest Nifty could target 25,500 if it holds above 25,150. Support is seen at 24,900–25,000, with hurdles at 25,300 and 25,410.
Private equity firm General Atlantic will sell 15% of its stake in KFin Technologies through block deals, after having already reduced its holding earlier. Currently, it owns 22.9% of the company. The sale is expected at a discount of 5–8%.
KEC International has bagged orders worth ₹3,243 crore across the US and UAE. Meanwhile, seasoned investor Keerti Doshi acquired 21% in MK Global Financial for ₹227.5 crore.
Defence secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh announced that the government will soon begin procurement of drones worth ₹30,000 crore, likely benefiting companies such as Zen Technologies, IdeaForge Technology and Taneja Aerospace.
Gold prices rallied strongly on expectations of further rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. Markets are keenly awaiting chair Jerome Powell’s speech and Friday’s release of personal consumption expenditure inflation data, along with the Fed minutes. Spot gold surged 1.5% to close at $3,740.10 on Monday, before rising to $3,758 this morning. Intraday highs touched $3,793.70.
German lender Deutsche Bank forecast gold to hit $4,000 by next year, citing three factors: higher central bank buying, prolonged dollar weakness and continuing Fed rate cuts. Swiss Asia Capital projected a massive 219% surge by 2032, with prices potentially reaching $11,800 per ounce. Goldman Sachs, which had predicted $4,000 by mid-2026, may revise its forecast sooner if further cuts materialise this year.
In Kerala, 22-carat gold prices jumped ₹680 in two moves on Monday to ₹82,920 per sovereign, and are expected to cross ₹83,000 today. Silver also climbed, with global prices above $44 per ounce, boosted by rising demand from electronics and solar panel industries.
Industrial metals moved in different directions. Copper edged up 0.18% to $9,921.40 per tonne, while aluminium fell 1% to $2,645.97. Nickel dropped, while lead, zinc and tin gained.
Rubber eased 0.18% to 170.30 cents per kg, cocoa fell 4% to $6,953.18 per tonne, while coffee added 0.48% and tea was flat. Palm oil rose 0.41%.
The US dollar index slipped to 97.34 on Monday and further to 97.29 this morning. The euro strengthened to $1.1816 and the pound to $1.3526. The yen traded at 147.62 per dollar. Indian rupee ended Friday weaker at 88.31 against the dollar, down 22 paise.
Crude oil prices swung between gains and losses. Brent closed at $66.57 on Monday but edged to $66.45 this morning. WTI held at $62.64 and Murban crude at $68.71. Natural gas slipped 0.35%.
Cryptocurrencies plunged sharply, with Bitcoin falling to $112,360, Ether at $4,170 and Solana at $215.
