India–US trade deal: early optimism may soften as details remain unclear

Gold and silver rebounded strongly after two days of losses, as fresh investment flows returned to bullion.
India–US trade deal: early optimism may soften as details remain unclear
Updated on
5 min read

Signals from Gift Nifty suggest a flat start for Indian equities today, even as global cues remain mixed and IT stocks face renewed pressure.

Gift Nifty ended overnight derivatives trade at 25,779.50 in Gift City. It moved up to 25,830.00 in early morning trade before slipping back, indicating a largely flat opening for the Nifty.

IT stocks under pressure

Indian IT stocks may face selling pressure today after a sharp fall in American Depository Receipts (ADRs) overnight.

Key ADR moves:

  • Infosys fell 5.56 percent

  • Wipro declined 4.83 percent

These stocks had surged a day earlier. The renewed weakness came as US software, financial services and asset management stocks moved lower. The broader slide in US tech stocks has dampened sentiment around Indian IT names.

Trade deal details still unclear

No official details of the India–US trade agreement have been released so far. Indian officials have said a joint statement will be issued in the coming days. Market participants believe that what has emerged so far is only a broad framework understanding, with detailed negotiations yet to begin.

There is also criticism that Donald Trump’s remarks on oil purchases were diplomatically inappropriate and aimed at exerting pressure on India.

Indian markets soar, then pare gains

Indian equities staged a powerful rally on Tuesday after Donald Trump’s comments on the India–US trade deal boosted sentiment.

  • Sensex surged over 4,200 points intraday

  • Nifty jumped more than 1,200 points

However, the indices gave up nearly half their gains by the close as uncertainty over the deal’s details triggered profit booking. The market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies rose by ₹12 lakh crore during the session.

Export-oriented stocks were the biggest winners, with several jumping up to 20 percent.

Stocks that hit upper circuits included:

  • Kitex Garments, KPR Mills, Gokaldas, Precot Mills

  • Vardhman, Welspun, Trident, Himatsingka Seide

  • Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail, Goldiam

  • Avanti Feeds, Apex Frozen, Waterbase

  • Indo Count, Avalon Technologies

Other exporters such as Bharat Forge, Sona BLW, Orbit Exports, Waaree Energies, Premier Energies and Sangam India also posted strong gains.

Adani group stocks rallied sharply, with Adani Enterprises, Adani Energy, Adani Green and Adani Ports all closing higher. Reliance Industries gained over 3 percent, while Jio Financial Services jumped 8 percent.

Foreign institutional investors turned aggressive buyers, reinforcing optimism that overseas funds may return to Indian markets. Analysts believe a trade deal that boosts exports could also support GDP growth.

Market close on Tuesday:

  • Sensex rose 2,072.67 points (2.54 percent) to 83,739.13

  • Nifty climbed 639.10 points (2.55 percent) to 25,727.55

  • Bank Nifty gained 1,422.30 points (2.43 percent) to 60,041.30

  • Midcap 100 jumped 2.84 percent

  • Smallcap 100 rose 2.82 percent

Market breadth remained positive:

  • BSE: 3,279 stocks advanced, 1,015 declined

  • NSE: 3,313 stocks rose, 2,686 fell

On the NSE, 66 stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 82 touched new lows.

Foreign investors bought shares worth ₹5,236.28 crore in the cash market, while domestic institutions purchased ₹1,014.24 crore.

Despite the sharp rally, some consolidation cannot be ruled out. The 25,450–25,600 zone may act as support for Nifty, with resistance seen at 25,970 and 26,170.

Company updates

  • Mankind Pharma reported an 11.5 percent rise in revenue and a 12.7 percent increase in operating profit, while net profit grew 7.5 percent

  • Aditya Birla Capital posted a 30 percent rise in revenue and a 41 percent jump in net profit

  • Bajaj Finance saw net interest income rise 20.6 percent, but net profit fell 5.6 percent due to a one-time ₹265 crore labour code-related charge

  • Gaming firm Nazara Technologies reported a 24 percent fall in revenue and a 35.8 percent drop in net profit

Gold back above $5,000

Gold and silver rebounded strongly after two days of losses, as fresh investment flows returned to bullion.

Gold rose over 6 percent on Tuesday to close at $4,947.80 an ounce. It climbed more than 2 percent this morning to touch $5,053.70 before easing slightly.

Silver also rallied:

  • Closed Tuesday at $85.28 an ounce, up 7.47 percent

  • Rose further to $86.82 this morning

Silver had touched a recent high of $121.76 an ounce last week.

In Kerala, 22-carat gold rose ₹660 on Tuesday to ₹1,12,880 per sovereign. The stronger rupee limited the impact of the global price rise in domestic markets.

On the MCX:

  • 24-carat gold touched ₹1.558 lakh per 10 grams before closing at ₹1,53,650

  • Silver rose to ₹2.78 lakh per kg before ending at ₹2.67 lakh

Platinum trades at $2,270, palladium at $1,755 and rhodium at $10,000 an ounce.

Commodities mixed

Most industrial metals gained on Tuesday:

  • Copper rose 2.38 percent to $13,294.85 a tonne

  • Aluminium gained 0.93 percent to $3,091.47 a tonne

  • Nickel and lead advanced

  • Tin and zinc declined

Rubber fell 1.02 percent to 185.10 cents per kg. Cocoa rose 1.31 percent to $4,265 a tonne, while coffee plunged 5.42 percent. Tea was unchanged and palm oil edged up 0.38 percent.

Dollar steadies; rupee surges

The dollar index slipped marginally to close at 97.44 and eased further to 97.37 this morning.

  • Euro trades at 1.1814

  • Pound at 1.3693

  • Japanese yen weakened to 156.11 per dollar

  • Swiss franc at 0.7762

  • Chinese yuan at 6.94 per dollar

US 10-year bond yields rose to 4.28 percent.

The rupee posted its strongest single-day gain in seven years on Tuesday, rising nearly 1.5 percent on optimism around the India–US trade deal. After touching 90.05, it closed at 90.27 per dollar.

In offshore markets this morning, the dollar strengthened to 90.42. Analysts believe the rupee could gradually appreciate towards 86 levels.

Global markets: US weakens

Fresh worries in the artificial intelligence space dragged US technology stocks lower, pulling down major indices.

  • Nvidia has fallen nearly 5 percent over the past two sessions

  • Meta, Microsoft, Apple and AMD also declined

Markets remained unmoved despite Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announcing an immediate $20 billion investment as part of a planned $100 billion commitment to OpenAI.

Software stocks were particularly weak, with Gartner sliding nearly 25 percent.

On Tuesday:

  • Dow Jones fell 166.67 points (0.34 percent) to close at 49,240.99

  • S&P 500 dropped 58.63 points (0.84 percent) to 6,917.81

  • Nasdaq slid 336.92 points (1.43 percent) to 23,255.19

US futures this morning were mixed:

  • Dow up 0.08 percent

  • S&P 500 down 0.05 percent

  • Nasdaq down 0.15 percent

AMD fell nearly 7 percent after disappointing quarterly results, dragging other tech stocks lower.

European markets closed slightly lower on Tuesday.

Asian markets trade lower

Asian markets are largely in the red today, led by sharp losses in software stocks.

  • Japan’s Nikkei is down 0.70 percent

  • Australia’s index is up 0.25 percent

  • South Korea’s index is down 0.40 percent

  • Hong Kong and Chinese markets opened lower

Crude oil rises

Crude oil prices continued to recover from recent lows.

  • Brent crude rose 2.5 percent on Tuesday to close at $67.95 a barrel

  • This morning, Brent trades at $68.17

  • WTI at $64.05

  • Murban at $68.81

Natural gas prices climbed to $3.35.

Cryptos volatile but higher

Cryptocurrencies remain highly volatile. Bitcoin slipped below $73,000 before rebounding to $76,600. Ether trades above $2,275, while Solana is above $99.

Market indicators

(As of February 3, Tuesday)

  • Sensex: 83,739.13 (+2.54 percent)

  • Nifty 50: 25,727.55 (+2.55 percent)

  • Bank Nifty: 60,041.30 (+2.43 percent)

  • Midcap 100: 59,307.10 (+2.84 percent)

  • Smallcap 100: 16,988.95 (+2.82 percent)

  • Dow Jones: 49,240.99 (-0.34 percent)

  • S&P 500: 6,917.81 (-0.84 percent)

  • Nasdaq: 23,255.19 (-1.43 percent)

  • Dollar: ₹90.27 (-1.24 percent)

  • Gold (ounce): $4,947.80 (+$287.10)

  • Gold (sovereign): ₹1,12,880 (+₹660)

  • Brent crude: $67.95 (+$1.69)

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