Global markets continue to show weakness as geopolitical tensions intensify across conflict zones. Crude oil is edging higher, adding pressure to already nervous investors, while the Indian rupee has slid sharply to record lows. Analysts suggest the near-term outlook for markets remains subdued, with little momentum for a strong rally.
In Washington, trade talks between India and the United States have made little headway. It is still unclear whether external affairs minister S. Jaishankar will get a meeting with US president Donald Trump, further adding uncertainty.
Meanwhile, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has revised India’s growth forecast upwards to 6.7% on the back of GST cuts. However, a leading ratings agency has stuck to its earlier projection of 6.5%.
Gold, which had been surging over recent sessions, paused slightly this morning but remains on an upward trajectory in the short term.
European equities closed higher on Tuesday, fuelled by optimism from the OECD’s upgraded growth outlook and excitement over the Nvidia–OpenAI tie-up, which boosted European chip stocks.
In contrast, US markets slipped after three straight sessions of gains. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell warned that US equities were overvalued, dampening investor sentiment. The comments sparked comparisons with the dot-com bubble of 2000, as critics flagged Nvidia’s $10 billion investment in OpenAI as a circular deal resembling past excesses.
The Dow Jones fell 0.19% to 46,292.78, the S&P 500 dropped 0.55% to 6,656.92, and the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.95% to 22,573.47. US futures were slightly higher in early trade, signalling only marginal support.
Across Asia, trading opened weaker. Japan’s Nikkei slipped 0.60%, with South Korean and Australian indices also in the red, while Hong Kong and Chinese markets managed modest gains.
Indian equities struggled to climb despite multiple attempts. Selling pressure from foreign institutional investors, concerns over H-1B visa restrictions, and the rupee’s steep decline dragged the indices down.
The Nifty closed 32.85 points lower at 25,169.50, while the Sensex shed 57.87 points to end at 82,102.10. Bank Nifty, however, bucked the trend with a gain of 0.41%, closing at 55,509.75.
Market breadth remained weak: more stocks fell than rose on both the NSE and BSE. Foreign investors were net sellers to the tune of ₹3,551.19 crore, while domestic funds absorbed some of the pressure by purchasing ₹2,670.87 crore worth of equities.
Analysts caution that the weakness could persist, though the Nifty closing above short-term moving averages offers some hope. Key support lies at 25,000, with resistance expected around 25,240–25,350.
Several corporate developments drew investor attention. Dilip Buildcon emerged as the lowest bidder for a ₹1,115-crore industrial corridor project in Palakkad, Kerala. Swiggy is set to sell shares worth ₹2,399 crore in bike taxi operator Rapido.
HCL Technologies renewed a major IT contract with Volvo in Sweden, while Bajaj Electricals announced the acquisition of the Morphy Richards brand for ₹146 crore. Torrent Power picked up a 49% stake in Newzone India and Newzone Power, signalling fresh expansion.
Gold surged to $3,790 an ounce before closing slightly lower at $3,767, reflecting profit-taking. Analysts note Powell’s comments on overpriced equities could further drive investors towards safe-haven assets.
China has been aggressively stockpiling gold via the Shanghai Gold Exchange and urging allies to hold reserves in its vaults, echoing practices once followed by Britain, Switzerland and the US. Despite a slowdown in central bank buying elsewhere, many believe gold could soon breach $3,800 and head towards the $4,000 level forecast earlier by Yardeni Research.
In Kerala, 22-carat gold touched ₹84,840 per sovereign on Tuesday, up ₹7,200 since the beginning of September. If global prices rise further or the rupee weakens again, prices could cross ₹85,000. Silver also gained but later slipped to $44.2 an ounce.
Industrial metals mostly declined, with copper falling 0.24% and aluminium 0.22%. Nickel was the lone gainer. Rubber edged higher internationally, cocoa rose, but coffee slumped 4.17% and palm oil slipped 2.27%.
The dollar index eased to 97.26, with JP Morgan forecasting a slide towards 92 by mid-2026. The euro strengthened to $1.18 and the pound to $1.35, while the yen weakened against the dollar.
Indian rupee weakness was stark, hitting 88.80 during trade before settling at 88.76 — a record closing low. Analysts warn it could slide further towards 90–92 per dollar by year-end, especially as India’s current account deficit widens amid weaker IT inflows and reduced remittances.
Brent crude settled at $67.63 and has since risen to $67.88, with West Texas Intermediate at $63.72 and Murban at $70.16. Pressure from the US to curb Russian crude imports could force India into tough choices. If India shifts stance, oil could climb into the $75–80 range.
Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies faced sharp declines. Bitcoin fell to $112,250, Ethereum dropped to $4,170, and Solana slid to $215, marking a bruising session for digital assets.
