Donald Trump’s latest trade manoeuvres have pushed global markets into further uncertainty, prompting investors to shift funds from riskier equities to safer havens such as gold and bonds. However, bucking the broader trend, the Indian markets charted a different course yesterday and many expect a similar deviation today.
Asian markets are showing negative cues. Crude oil prices have climbed above $74 per barrel, adding to the prevailing concerns. Meanwhile, trade talks between India and the United States in New Delhi have yet to reach a breakthrough.
The US remains firm on its demand to cut tariffs on agricultural products, including grains and dairy items, and to remove import restrictions. India, on the other hand, insists that American firms operating in India must store business-related data, including data from their partners, on servers within the country—a demand the US is not ready to accept. These negotiations are expected to continue for two more days, and any progress could impact market sentiment.
There will be no trading on Indian markets on Monday due to a scheduled holiday.
In the derivatives market, Gift Nifty closed at 23,753. In early trade today, it fluctuated between 23,742 and 23,760, indicating that Indian markets may also open lower.
European markets ended in the red on Thursday. Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on vehicles sent automobile stocks tumbling. His warning that more tariffs could be levied if Canada and Europe counter his moves further rattled investors.
This aggressive stance has not only undermined trust in existing trade alliances but has also sparked doubts even among US industrialists and investment managers—many of whom had been his staunch supporters. They are now questioning whether such steps will genuinely encourage companies to invest in the US.
In fact, Trump appears to have contradicted the very trade agreements he helped forge with Canada and Mexico, damaging America’s credibility.
US markets reflected this anxiety. General Motors dropped by 7% and Ford by 4%, while Elon Musk’s Tesla rose slightly by 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 155.09 points (0.37%) to close at 42,299.70. The S&P 500 declined 18.89 points (0.33%) to end at 5693.31, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 94.98 points (0.53%) to 17,804.00.
US futures are showing mild gains this morning. The Dow is up 0.08%, the S&P 500 by 0.06%, and the Nasdaq by 0.03%. Asian markets, however, are still reeling. Japan’s Nikkei has dropped by 2%, and South Korea’s main index has fallen by 1.5%. Chinese markets also opened on a weak note.
After a weak start yesterday, the Indian markets made a strong recovery, backed by significant buying from both foreign institutional investors and domestic funds. The rally came on the monthly derivatives expiry day, ending the March series on a positive note.
The Sensex surged from 77,082 to 77,747, while the Nifty climbed from 23,412 to 23,615, closing above key resistance levels—23,575 for Nifty and 77,600 for Sensex. Mid-cap and small-cap stocks also joined the rally.
Barring sectors like auto, pharma, and healthcare, all other segments ended in the green. Public sector banks, realty, oil & gas, and media stocks posted notable gains. HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, L&T, and Bajaj Finance led the charge.
However, Trump’s new tariff on US-bound vehicles caused Tata Motors to slide by up to 7%. This could also hurt Indian auto component and tyre manufacturers. There’s market speculation that tariffs on pharmaceuticals may be next.
Despite index gains, the broader market remained fragile. The advance-decline ratio tilted towards declines. On the BSE, 1,638 stocks gained while 2,410 declined. The NSE saw 1,382 stocks advance against 1,537 falling.
While 24 stocks hit 52-week highs, 325 touched yearly lows. A total of 69 stocks hit upper circuits, while 198 were locked in lower circuits.
Foreign investors were aggressive buyers, making net purchases worth ₹11,111.25 crore in the cash market. Domestic funds added ₹2,517.70 crore worth of equities.
On Thursday, the Nifty rose by 105.10 points (0.45%) to close at 23,591.95. The Sensex added 317.93 points (0.41%) to end at 77,606.43. Bank Nifty gained 366.85 points (0.72%) to settle at 51,575.85. The mid-cap index advanced 0.37% to 51,839.40, while the small-cap index climbed 1.15% to 16,119.85.
The overall market sentiment is not yet bullish. Nifty must sustain support around 23,400 to break into the 23,800–24,000 range. If this level fails, the next support is seen at 23,200. For today, Nifty has support around 23,460 and 23,320, with resistance expected at 23,640 and 23,780.
Trump’s policies and the resulting global uncertainty have driven gold to yet another record high. Spot prices closed above $3,050 per ounce and reached an intraday high of $3,070 before settling at $3,068.80. This morning, prices touched $3,079, and in Asian trade, they breached the $3,107 mark.
The sustained economic turbulence has led major banks to revise their forecasts. Goldman Sachs now sees gold hitting $3,300 by end-2025, up from the earlier $3,100. Bank of America has raised its 2026 target to $3,500.
Gold ended Thursday at $3,057.60 per ounce, and as of this morning, reached $3,069.70. Market chatter suggests April 2 could bring another major movement in gold prices, possibly marking the next phase in the tariff war.
In Kerala, gold jewellery prices rose by ₹320 on Thursday to ₹65,880 per sovereign. If international prices repeat the 1.12% jump locally, a new record of ₹66,480 could be on the horizon.
Silver also surged, climbing to $34.40 per ounce.
The dollar index slipped slightly to 104.34 on Thursday and opened at 104.27 this morning. The Indian rupee, after a volatile session, recovered slightly, with the dollar closing at ₹85.78—up seven paise.
US bond prices fell, pushing yields higher. The yield on 10-year treasuries rose to 4.369%, reflecting market expectations of rising interest rates.
Crude prices continued their upward trend. The ceasefire in Ukraine has yet to materialise, and sanctions against Russia remain firmly in place. Brent crude closed at $74.05 per barrel on Thursday and inched up to $74.08 this morning. WTI stood at $69.98, while UAE’s Murban crude rose to $75.48 per barrel.
Cryptocurrencies saw modest gains. Bitcoin climbed to $87,200, while Ether crossed the $2,000 mark.
