The markets are kicking off on a positive note today, riding what appears to be a favourable tail-wind. Asian indices are broadly higher, seemingly unconcerned for now by President Donald Trump’s threats of imposing an oil embargo on China.
A more optimistic forecast from the IMF has boosted sentiment: India’s GDP growth for the current fiscal year has been upgraded to 6.6 percent (from a prior estimate of 6.4), although next year’s projection was trimmed to 6.2 percent. The full brunt of any US border impact is expected to materialise only in the following year.
In September, headline inflation slowed to 0.13 percent, yet core inflation (excluding food and fuel) rose to 1.9 percent. On the derivatives front, the Nifty futures contract closed Tuesday night at 25,265.50, while early trading nudged it up to 25,290 — a sign that the Indian market may open with substantial gains.
European equities slipped on Wednesday, weighed down by heightened fears of a trade war. Auto makers were particularly hard hit. Tire manufacturer Michelin dropped about 9 percent after revising downward revenue and profit forecasts. Meanwhile, Ericsson surged some 18 percent after strong results in the telecom equipment sector.
US markets moved in different directions. While the Dow rose, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended lower. The Dow ultimately gained 202.88 points (0.44 %) to close at 46,270.46. The S&P 500 fell 10.41 points (0.16 %) to 6,644.31, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 172.91 points (0.76 %) to 22,521.70.
Futures hint at a modest uptick: the Dow is up around 0.10 percent, S&P 500 by 0.11 percent and Nasdaq by 0.14 percent.
Trump’s threat to sanction soybean exports to China in favour of a food-oil embargo rattled sentiment, though strong results in the banking sector provided some respite. Wells Fargo jumped about 7 percent, and Ericsson rallied further on hopes of US government backing. Meanwhile, rare-earth and mining company Nova Minerals soared about 83 percent amid reports of possible government investment.
Asian markets are opening with gains. Japan’s Nikkei is up about 1 percent, while Australia’s market has risen around 0.95 percent. In China, consumer prices in September fell more than expected (–0.3 percent), whereas core inflation rose by 1 percent and overall price indices fell by about 2.3 percent. Hong Kong and Mainland Chinese equities are also trading higher.
In India, equities ended lower yesterday despite a strong start. The Nifty fell after dropping some 250 points, but later rebounded. Selling in futures likely weighed on sentiment.
Public sector banks, consumer durables, metals, real estate, pharma, oil & gas, and media sectors underperformed, and IT too showed weakness.
Meanwhile, LG Electronics in South Korea saw a successful IPO listing, with its shares jumping from an issue price of ₹1,140 to ₹1,710 — a 50 percent spike. Its parent firm’s market cap is around $930 million, while this listing itself is worth ₹1.2 trillion ($13 billion). Analysts from eight brokerage firms have recommended buying the stock, with price targets as high as ₹2,050.
Choice Equity has given a buy call on Federal Bank with a target range of ₹245–₹255 (prevailing price ₹215.08). They also recommended buying Cipla at ₹1,500 with a target of ₹1,850. Bharat Dynamics is another pick, with a target of ₹1,785 from ₹1,440. Tech Mahindra reported a 4.8 percent year-on-year growth for its second quarter, with an operating profit margin rising to 12.1 percent (though net profit dipped slightly due to absence of one-time gains from land sale in the prior year).
Indices: Nifty closed down 81.85 points (–0.32 %) at 25,145.50, and the Sensex fell 297.07 points (–0.36 %) to 82,029.98. Bank Nifty dropped 128.55 points (–0.23 %) to 56,496.45. Mid-cap 100 was down 0.75 percent; small-cap 100 fell 0.89 percent.
On the NSE, 836 stocks gained and 2,266 fell. 114 stocks hit their 52-week highs, 129 hit 52-week lows. 67 stocks hit the upper circuit, 73 the lower circuit.
Foreign institutional investors sold ₹1,508.53 crore in the cash segment, while domestic funds purchased ₹3,661.13 crore in equities.
Technically, a close above 25,100 on the Nifty is considered bullish. Supports are expected around 25,070 and 24,955, while resistances may lie at 25,270–25,330.
Infosys won a £160 million (approx. ₹160 billion) 15-year contract from the UK’s NHS to revamp and manage staff and operations systems. The results from Infosys are due tomorrow.
Sathvik Green Energy secured ₹639 crore of orders from three firms for solar modules.
HDFC AMC’s board will decide the ratio and record date for its bonus issue today.
Jindal Stainless (JSW Paints) has made an open offer to acquire 26 percent in Axo Nobel, offering ₹3,231.77 per share.
Choice Equity recommends buying Federal Bank at ₹215.08 currently with a target of ₹245–₹255. They suggest acquiring Cipla around ₹1,500 with a target of ₹1,850, and Bharat Dynamics with a target of ₹1,785 from ₹1,440.
Tech Mahindra’s Q2 revenues grew 4.8 percent; operating profit rose 23.8 percent, though net profit slipped due to prior year one-time gains.
Gold prices have seen wild swings. On Wednesday it touched as high as $4,180, but later settled at $4,143.20. Early today it rose about 1 percent to $4,183.40. Intraday, gold shot up to $4,205.80.
In Kerala, 22-carat per tola price rose to ₹94,360 in early trade on Wednesday, before slipping to close at ₹94,120.
Silver crossed $52/oz intraday before falling to $51.43. Intraday highs reached $52.50, lows dipped to $50.38. Palladium, platinum, and rhodium also witnessed gains.
Analysts at Bank of America predict gold could reach $5,000/oz and silver $65/oz by end-2026.
Industrial metals continued their decline for a third straight day. Copper dropped 0.17 percent to $10,599.70/ton. Aluminium fell 0.40 percent to $2,741.12. Lead, nickel, tin, and zinc all slipped — some by over 2 percent.
Rubber prices fell 1.22 percent to $170.30/kg. Cocoa increased 1.04 percent to $5,882.69/ton. Coffee jumped 4.36 percent, while tea remained weak. Palm oil fell 0.80 percent.
The US dollar index dipped slightly to 99.05 on Wednesday, and this morning edged down further to ~98.95. In forex markets, the euro climbed to $1.618, and the pound to $1.3335. The Japanese yen depreciated to ~¥151.36 per dollar.
US 10-year Treasury yields rose to ~4.017 percent this morning after oscillating the prior day.
The Indian rupee weakened further, touching an all-time closing high of ₹88.80 per dollar (up ~13 paise).
Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan slid to ~¥7.14 to the dollar (from ~¥7.11 earlier).
The risk of deepening trade tensions continues to drag on crude prices. Brent futures fell ~$1.03 to close at $62.28. Early trade sees Brent at ~$62.23, WTI at ~$58.58, and Murban crude near ~$63.95. Natural gas is down ~0.65 percent.
Crypto markets remain choppy. Escalating US–China tensions weighed on risk. Bitcoin fell early to ~$112,700, while Ether dipped toward ~$3,900 before rebounding to ~$4,120. Solana plunged 10 percent to ~$192 before bouncing to ~$204.
