There are few strong triggers pushing the market forward at the moment. Investors are largely holding positions in anticipation of good quarterly results, while awaiting clarity on the India–US trade talks. Until those discussions resume, the market is expected to move sideways.
Gold, which crossed $4,000 an ounce earlier, has slightly retreated. Analysts suggest that prices could continue to rise until the US government shutdown ends.
In the derivatives market, Gift Nifty closed at 25,217.00 on Tuesday night and slipped slightly to 25,206 this morning, hinting that Indian equities may open lower.
Political tensions in France have weighed on the euro and the broader European markets. Most indices either declined or posted marginal gains. Interestingly, French luxury brands such as Gucci and LVMH saw notable gains yesterday, largely fuelled by speculation that the country may shift towards a right-wing government.
After seven straight days of gains, the S&P 500 index fell on Tuesday, with other indices also ending lower. Oracle Corporation, which had surged recently following its artificial intelligence investments, saw its shares drop amid doubts about the profitability of its AI bets. The tech sector as a whole was weak.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 91.99 points (0.20%) to close at 46,602.98. The S&P 500 fell 25.69 points (0.38%) to 6,714.59, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 153.30 points (0.67%) to close at 22,788.36.
US futures, however, are trading slightly higher today — with the Dow up 0.07%, the S&P 0.12%, and the Nasdaq 0.17%. Asian markets are also showing mixed trends. After a day of gains, Japan’s market has posted mild improvement, while Australia’s index is lower.
Indian equities managed to close in the green for the fourth consecutive session, though the indices finished well below their intraday highs. The Sensex fell 382 points and the Nifty 113 points from their peaks, indicating that the rally remains fragile.
Realty, oil, pharma, and consumer durables were among the gainers, while PSU banks, FMCG, defensive stocks, and metal companies declined. IT stocks, after some volatility, closed slightly lower. Railway-related stocks gained after the government announced ₹24,000 crore worth of development projects. Ircon rose 6.91%, RVNL 2.7%, and RITES 2.09%.
On Tuesday, the Nifty added 30.65 points (0.12%) to close at 25,108.30. The Sensex rose 136.65 points (0.17%) to end at 81,926.75. Bank Nifty gained 134.50 points (0.24%) to close at 56,239.35.
The Midcap 100 index advanced 274.30 points (0.47%) to 58,289.40, while the Smallcap 100 index rose 55.35 points (0.31%) to 17,983.40.
The market breadth remained weak — on the BSE, 1,761 stocks advanced while 2,420 declined. On the NSE, 1,433 shares rose and 1,634 fell. A total of 115 stocks hit 52-week highs, while 100 touched 52-week lows.
Foreign investors were net buyers in the cash market, purchasing shares worth ₹1,440.66 crore. Domestic funds also bought equities worth ₹452.57 crore.
Analysts expect Nifty to find support at 25,080 and 25,000, while facing resistance around 25,190 and 25,275.
Gold prices climbed above $4,000 an ounce, with December futures touching $4,020 before easing to $3,996 in spot trade. The surge has been fuelled by the prolonged US government deadlock and central banks’ steady gold purchases.
Gold, which crossed $3,000 in March, has risen 52% since January. In the ongoing bull run that began in 2022, prices have surged 132%.
There is now speculation that gold could see a correction after breaching the $4,000 mark. Analysts at Bank of America predict a possible 12% drop to $3,525 per ounce. However, if the rally continues without correction, they estimate prices could touch $5,000 by the end of 2026 — and potentially $7,000 if it follows the same pattern as the 2000–2011 bull phase. Goldman Sachs projects gold at $4,600 by June 2026.
In Kerala, 22-carat gold rose by ₹920 on Tuesday to ₹89,480 per sovereign. Prices are expected to cross ₹90,000 this morning.
Silver prices dipped slightly, closing at $47.82 per ounce, though analysts believe it could soon approach the $50 mark.
Among base metals, copper rose 0.32% to $10,642.85 per tonne, aluminium gained 0.67% to $2,742.25, while tin slipped 0.41% to $36,572. Nickel, lead, and zinc all moved higher.
In the commodities market, rubber gained 0.23% to 171.30 cents per kilogram. Cocoa prices fell 2.18% to $6,146 per tonne, coffee dropped 1.64%, and tea prices slumped 37%, marking a 50% decline over the past year. Palm oil prices rose 0.81%.
Despite the continuing US government standoff, the dollar index strengthened, closing at 98.58 on Tuesday and inching up to 98.83 this morning.
The euro fell to $1.1626, the pound to $1.3399, and the Japanese yen weakened to 152.40 per dollar. US bond yields edged lower, with the 10-year Treasury yield slipping to 4.131%.
The Indian rupee opened firm but ended flat at 88.77 against the dollar on Tuesday. The Chinese yuan remained steady at 7.12 per dollar.
Crude oil prices moved within a narrow range on Tuesday amid a lack of fresh developments. Brent crude closed marginally lower at $65.45 a barrel but rose to $65.93 this morning. WTI traded at $62.25 and Murban crude at $66.68. Natural gas prices dipped 0.30%.
Cryptocurrencies retreated after a weekend rally. Bitcoin fell to $121,900 this morning, while Ether rose to $4,485 and Solana reached $222.
