Markets have found relief. Equities are rallying, crude oil is falling, the dollar is weakening, and gold is soaring.
The trigger is the ceasefire announcement in West Asia. The Strait of Hormuz has reopened, easing supply concerns. The US and Iran are set to begin talks in Islamabad on Friday aimed at a long-term agreement. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif expressed optimism that a deal could be reached during the two-week ceasefire window, while US President Donald Trump indicated that Iran’s ten-point proposal would form the basis for discussions.
The ceasefire was announced just hours before a deadline set by Trump. Israel has also halted its attacks in Lebanon.
The development has sparked a global market rally. Asian markets surged up to 5 percent, while US futures jumped nearly 2 percent.
GIFT Nifty closed at 23,099.00 in derivative trading at GIFT City and surged to 23,925 in early trade, indicating a potential opening gain of around 700 points (about 3 percent) for the Nifty.
Crude oil prices plunged nearly 15 percent, while gold rose 3 percent and silver climbed 5 percent.
US markets ended with marginal changes on Tuesday amid uncertainty around the ceasefire.
Dow Jones fell 85.42 points (0.18 percent) to close at 46,584.46
S&P 500 gained 5.02 points (0.08 percent) to 6,616.85
Nasdaq rose 21.51 points (0.10 percent) to 22,017.85
However, US futures rallied sharply this morning:
Dow futures up 930 points (1.98 percent)
S&P 500 futures up 148.50 points (2.23 percent)
Nasdaq futures up 711.50 points (2.92 percent)
HDFC Bank ADR fell 0.62 percent but surged 3.52 percent later to $26.41
ICICI Bank ADR declined 0.27 percent before rising 2.92 percent to $26.75
Infosys ADR gained 1.90 percent and added another 2.94 percent
Wipro rose 2.74 percent and climbed a further 4 percent
European markets had fallen over 1 percent on Tuesday on war concerns.
Asian indices are sharply higher today:
Nikkei up 4.75 percent
Kospi up 5.3 percent
Australia up 2.7 percent
Shanghai up 1 percent
Hang Seng up 2.5 percent
Indian equities reversed early losses and closed higher for the fourth straight session on Tuesday.
Sensex rose 509.73 points (0.69 percent) to 74,616.58
Nifty gained 155.40 points (0.68 percent) to 23,123.65
Bank Nifty rose 107.15 points (0.20 percent) to 52,716.25
Midcap 100 index gained 0.20 percent to 54,600.55
Smallcap 100 index slipped 0.06 percent to 15,843.30
Market breadth remained positive:
BSE: 2,672 stocks advanced, 1,571 declined
NSE: 2,078 advanced, 1,144 declined
Foreign investors continued heavy selling, with net outflows of ₹8,692.11 crore in the cash market. Domestic institutions offset this with net buying of ₹7,979.50 crore.
Despite the ceasefire, gold rallied sharply—contrary to its usual trend of falling during peace.
Markets expect central banks and ultra-wealthy investors to resume gold buying. Increased investment in high-tech and renewable energy sectors, which use gold and silver, is also supporting demand. Several global investment banks forecast gold could reach $6,000 per ounce this year.
Gold closed at $4,707.20 per ounce on Tuesday, up $58.70. It surged 3 percent to $4,855.30 this morning before easing to around $4,810.
In Kerala, 22-carat gold price fell ₹600 to ₹1,09,880 per sovereign.
Silver rose to $73.17 on Tuesday, surged 6 percent to $77.30, and later eased to $76.34.
Platinum: $2,020
Palladium: $1,511
Rhodium: $9,300
Industrial metals gained on expectations of improved demand post-ceasefire.
Copper rose 0.86 percent to $12,251.35
Aluminium gained 0.58 percent to $3,491.77
Lead, zinc and tin rose, while nickel declined
Rubber prices rose 0.94 percent to 203.40 cents/kg. Synthetic rubber climbed 2.16 percent to 18,150 yuan/tonne.
Cocoa fell 7.23 percent to $3,000/tonne
Coffee declined 3.96 percent to 286.25 cents/lb
Palm oil slipped 0.96 percent to 4,765 ringgit/tonne
Tea remained steady
Among petrochemicals, polyethylene, polypropylene and PVC fell up to 1.18 percent. Urea rose 0.96 percent to $708/tonne, while DAP gained 0.70 percent to $720.
The ceasefire weakened the US dollar.
Dollar index fell करीब 1 percent to 98.84 before edging up to 98.93
Euro rose to $1.168
Pound strengthened to $1.3405
Yen appreciated to 158.38 per dollar
Yuan strengthened to 6.86 per dollar
US 10-year bond yields fell to 4.256 percent from 4.343 percent, reflecting expectations of lower inflation and possible rate cuts.
RBI measures to curb speculative shorting supported the rupee.
The currency gained 5 paise to close at 93.01 against the dollar. Further strengthening is expected today.
In the offshore NDF market, the rupee strengthened to 92.84 on Tuesday night and to 92.42 this morning.
Yuan: ₹13.48
Euro: ₹107.96
The ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eased supply concerns, sending crude prices sharply lower.
Brent crude fell nearly 15 percent before recovering slightly to around $94.20 per barrel. Prices were around $70 before the conflict began.
WTI crude: $96.38
Murban crude: $96.78 (down 19 percent)
Cryptocurrencies surged following the ceasefire:
Bitcoin crossed $71,700
Ether rose above $2,240
Solana moved above $85
Sensex: 74,616.58 (+0.69%)
Nifty 50: 23,123.65 (+0.68%)
Bank Nifty: 52,716.25 (+0.20%)
Midcap 100: 54,600.55 (+0.20%)
Smallcap 100: 15,843.30 (-0.06%)
Dow Jones: 46,584.46 (-0.18%)
S&P 500: 6,616.85 (+0.08%)
Nasdaq: 22,017.85 (+0.10%)
Dollar: ₹93.01 (-₹0.05)
Gold (ounce): $4,707.20 (+58.70)
Gold (sovereign): ₹1,09,880 (-₹600)
Brent crude: $109.27 (-$0.50)
