Despite escalating border hostilities triggered by Operation Sindoor, the Indian market appears to believe that a full-scale war is unlikely. Investors are now closely watching how Pakistan will respond, as that reaction is expected to steer the market's next direction.
The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, just as markets had anticipated. Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that steep tariffs could fuel inflation and hurt growth, brushing aside former President Donald Trump’s repeated suggestions for a rate cut. Crude oil prices dipped more than 1.5%, while gold rebounded to approach $3,400. The dollar index softened slightly.
Trump, in a social media post, said he would soon announce a trade deal with a “respected nation” — without naming it. He claimed India had agreed to remove tariffs on US goods, though Indian officials stated talks are still not in the final stage. India-US negotiations continue, while discussions with China are expected in Geneva this weekend.
The GIFT Nifty closed at 24,337 on Tuesday night, opened slightly higher at 24,364 on Wednesday, and rose to 24,423 in early trade — suggesting a flat to mildly positive opening for the Nifty
European markets remained subdued. Novo Nordisk trimmed its 2025 profit outlook, and Volvo laid off workers at its US unit. In the US, the Dow Jones rose 0.70%, the S&P 500 gained 0.43%, and Nasdaq added 0.27%. A dip in Alphabet and Nvidia capped Nasdaq's rise, while Disney’s post-earnings rally buoyed the Dow. Trump’s statement on easing chip export restrictions may offer support today.
US futures traded higher this morning. Dow was up 0.29%, S&P up 0.4%, and Nasdaq climbed 0.72%. Asian markets started mixed; Japan’s Nikkei showed signs of early volatility.
The Indian stock market opened lower on Wednesday but recovered to close in the green. Despite rising border heat, traders don’t anticipate a full-blown war. In stark contrast, the Pakistan Stock Exchange reacted with anxiety. The KSE 100 index fell 5.78% in early trade and closed 3.13% lower — its steepest decline since Trump’s 2018 tariff war announcement.
Investor concerns in Pakistan were not limited to war — fears over IMF loan delays and potential Indian opposition to funding added to the nervousness. India had previously abstained from voting on such matters, but this time remains uncertain.
Broader markets outperformed the benchmarks. Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 surged more than 1.5%. Stocks like Samvardhana Motherson and Bharat Forge rose sharply following optimism from the India-UK FTA, which is expected to benefit Indian automakers and component suppliers. Tata Motors jumped over 5% after receiving approval to demerge its commercial vehicle business, seen as a step toward unlocking hidden value.
Nifty 50 ended up 34.80 points (0.14%) at 24,414.40, and the Sensex gained 105.71 points (0.13%) to close at 80,746.78. Bank Nifty climbed 339.50 points (0.63%) to 54,610.90. Midcap 100 rose 1.59% to 54,287.75, while Smallcap 100 advanced 1.38% to 16,417.95.
Market breadth remained positive. On the BSE, 2,099 stocks advanced and 1,800 declined. NSE saw 1,772 gainers and 1,049 losers. Twenty-six stocks hit 52-week highs, while 95 touched lows. Upper circuits were seen in 43 stocks; 118 stocks hit lower circuits.
FIIs were net buyers with ₹2,856.86 crore in cash purchases, while domestic funds sold stocks worth ₹2,378.49 crore.
Nifty continues to hold support at 24,200 and has moved above 24,400. The next resistance lies between 24,500 and 24,600. For today, support levels are at 24,270 and 24,135, while resistance zones are pegged at 24,450 and 24,590.
Coal India’s revenue dipped 1% in Q4, but profit rose 12%. Voltas reported a 13.4% jump in revenue and a 107% rise in net profit. United Breweries saw a 20.5% profit increase, while revenue climbed 8.9%. Tata Chemicals narrowed losses significantly from ₹850 crore to ₹56 crore, despite flat revenue. Mangalore Chemicals posted a 231.2% profit surge. Sonata Software’s profit rose modestly even though revenue fell 8%. Dabur India reported a 0.6% rise in revenue but saw profit drop 8.3%. Blue Star's revenue and profit both rose over 20%; Chairman & MD Vir S Advani was reappointed for five years.
Companies announcing quarterly results today include L&T, Titan, Asian Paints, Britannia, Bharat Forge, Biocon, Kalyan Jewellers, Canara Bank, Union Bank, Dilip Buildcon, Jindal Stainless, MCX, Zee Entertainment, Pidilite, REC, and IIFL Finance.
Gold fell 2% overnight, closing at $3,366.10/oz, but rebounded to $3,396 in early trade. Trump’s statement that the 145% tariff on Chinese goods will stay ahead of trade talks helped revive gold’s appeal as a safe haven. In Kerala, gold prices rose by ₹400 to ₹72,600 per sovereign and could go up further.
Silver stood at $32.75/oz. Copper slipped to $9,485/tonne. Aluminium prices fell 1.68%. Tin, zinc and nickel also declined slightly. Globally, rubber prices eased, while cocoa jumped 3.82%. Coffee and palm oil prices fell 1.15% and 1.71%, respectively.
The US dollar index, which attempted to break above 100, closed at 99.61. Euro rose to 1.1303, the pound climbed to 1.3288, and the yen weakened to 143.84. Indian rupee posted its sharpest one-day drop in a month. The dollar opened at ₹84.63, peaked at ₹84.90, and settled at ₹84.83, up 40 paise.
Chinese yuan slipped to 7.23 per dollar. US bond yields dipped slightly after the Fed’s announcement, with 10-year yields at 4.269%.
Oil prices continued to fall. Brent crude dropped 1.66% to $61.12/barrel, while WTI settled at $57.91. Morning trades saw Brent around $61.10 and WTI at $58.09. Murban crude was at $61.72.
Cryptocurrencies remained buoyant. Bitcoin hovered just under $97,500 after intraday volatility, while Ether stayed firm above $1,820.
