Uncertainties have once again enveloped global markets, and this weakness is expected to be reflected in today’s trading. However, the Indian market is set to open with a sense of optimism. After several eventful sessions, investors are hoping for a calm trading day without dramatic developments.
Expectations of a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Malaysia tomorrow — where they were likely to announce a trade deal — have now been dashed. The move to skip the meeting comes amid the growing strain over US sanctions related to Russian oil, a matter causing considerable discomfort for India. Trump has also cancelled his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, further fuelling international tensions.
The only positive news for the markets is that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet next Thursday.
In the derivatives market, GIFT Nifty closed at 26,011.50 on Thursday. Early Friday trading saw it rise to 26,050 before easing slightly to 26,025, suggesting a positive start for Indian equities.
European shares closed higher on Thursday, supported by strong corporate earnings. Kering, the owner of Gucci, reported better-than-expected third-quarter results, pushing its shares up by 8.7%.
Despite renewed trade war fears and Trump’s decision to cancel his meeting with Putin, US markets ended higher.
In the tech sector, Anthropic and Google announced a major partnership in the cloud computing space, which could bring Google billions of dollars in revenue. Shares of Alphabet, Google’s parent company, hit a record high in post-market trading. Ford Motors surged 4% after delivering results that beat expectations, while Intel gained 7% following strong earnings.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 144.20 points (0.31%) to close at 46,734.61. The S&P 500 added 39.04 points (0.58%) to finish at 6,738.44, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 201.40 points (0.89%) to close at 22,941.80.
US futures were mixed this morning — Dow futures slipped 0.05%, while S&P and Nasdaq futures rose 0.08% and 0.15% respectively. Asian markets also traded higher, buoyed by confirmation of the Trump–Xi meeting. Japan’s Nikkei gained 1% in early trade as consumer inflation came in line with expectations. South Korea’s benchmark index jumped 1.5%, touching a new record, while Australia’s market edged lower. Hong Kong and Chinese indices also advanced.
After a strong start on Thursday, with the Sensex up nearly 1%, the Indian market lost momentum following fresh US sanctions. The Sensex, which had touched 85,290, ended 730 points lower, while the Nifty dropped 22 points after reaching 26,104 earlier in the session. Mid-cap and small-cap indices also finished in the red.
Morning optimism was driven by hopes that India and the US would sign a trade deal and that tariffs would be reduced from 50% to around 15–16%. However, US sanctions on Russian companies without allowing India adequate leeway to continue oil imports created a diplomatic and trade setback. Consequently, Modi decided to skip the Malaysia summit, where a meeting with Trump had been planned.
The sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil — two of Russia’s largest oil exporters — are expected to significantly affect Indian oil companies. Reliance Industries, which had risen 3% in early trade, ended down 1%. State-run refiners IOC, BPCL, and HPCL all fell by around 3.5%. Private player Nayara Energy, partly owned by Rosneft, also came under pressure. These developments may force Indian refiners to halt purchases from Russian suppliers, likely pushing global crude oil prices higher — already up by about 7%.
Textile exporters benefited on optimism over trade resolution, with Kitex Garments soaring 15.12% to ₹215. Vardhman Textiles, KPR Mills, Arvind, Welspun Living, Gokaldas Exports, and Alok Industries also posted notable gains.
IT stocks were buoyed by Trump’s announcement of new H-1B visa relaxations. Many companies gained over 5% in early trade, though profit-booking pared gains after news of the cancelled Modi–Trump meeting.
The Nifty closed up 22.80 points (0.09%) at 25,891.40, while the Sensex rose 130.06 points (0.15%) to end at 84,556.40. The Bank Nifty advanced 70.85 points (0.12%) to 58,078.05. The Mid-Cap 100 index fell 38.30 points (0.06%) to 59,371.25, and the Small-Cap 100 declined 9.20 points (0.05%) to 18,291.45.
Market breadth turned negative, with 1,809 stocks rising and 2,464 declining on the BSE. On the NSE, 1,305 advanced while 1,801 declined.
On the NSE, 148 stocks hit new 52-week highs while 39 touched lows. Eighty-five shares hit upper circuits and 42 hit lower ones.
Foreign institutional investors sold shares worth ₹1,165.94 crore on Thursday, while domestic funds purchased ₹3,893.73 crore.
Nifty’s close above 25,850 signals strength. It is expected to test 26,000 again today, with support at 25,860 and 25,800, and resistance near 25,945 and 26,010.
Gold markets are witnessing a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Optimists believe central banks will try to prevent a sharp fall in prices. Reports of renewed trade tensions and widening rifts between the US and Russia over Ukraine are also lending support. However, the anxiety seen on Thursday has subsided. After rising to $4,155 an ounce, gold closed at $4,127.40. In Asian trading this morning, it fluctuated between $4,105 and $4,145 before settling at around $4,115.
Gold hasn’t seen a 10-week winning streak since 1970. Historically, after seven consecutive weeks of gains, prices tend to correct within a month — a pattern last observed in 1983. The market now appears to be following that trajectory.
Holiday trading saw gold rise to $4,159 before settling around $4,150. In Kerala, the price of 22-carat gold fell ₹600 on Thursday to ₹91,720 per sovereign.
Although a shipment of around 1,000 tonnes of silver reached London last weekend, easing the immediate crisis, reports indicate that shortages persist. Post-Diwali demand from India remains strong, coupled with rising industrial usage. London brokers estimate that another 4,500 tonnes will be needed. Silver prices crossed $49 an ounce but have since stabilised. Spot silver stood at $48.90, with holiday trading at $48.52.
Except for zinc, all major industrial metals surged on Thursday. Copper rose 1.86% to $10,796.60 per tonne, aluminium gained 0.75% to $2,830.24, while lead, nickel, and tin also advanced. Zinc fell 3.13%.
In commodities, global rubber prices rose 0.29% to 172.80 cents per kg. Cocoa climbed 1.44% to $6,389 a tonne, while coffee dropped 2.54%. Tea gained 1.44%, and palm oil edged up 0.36%.
The dollar index moved in a narrow range before closing slightly lower at 98.94, later edging up to 99.01 this morning. The euro strengthened to $1.615, while the pound slipped to $1.324. The yen weakened to 152.62 per dollar.
Yields on 10-year US Treasuries rose to 4.006% as prices fell.
The rupee appreciated slightly on Thursday, closing 9 paise higher at ₹87.84 against the dollar, aided by RBI intervention. The Chinese yuan remained stable at 7.13 per dollar.
US sanctions on major Russian oil firms pushed crude prices more than 5% higher. Brent crude settled at $65.99 a barrel on Thursday and traded at $65.65 this morning. WTI was at $61.46, and Murban crude at $68.95.
US President Donald Trump has pardoned Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, who had earlier pleaded guilty to aiding money laundering. Reports suggest Binance had extended support to Trump’s family-linked crypto ventures, sparking opposition allegations of corruption. The news triggered a rally across cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin surged past $110,400, Ether rose to $3,877, and Solana touched $193.
