Markets open with optimism as inflation eases; Asian indices trade mixed

Western peace efforts appear to have brought a sense of relief to global markets, driving gains across major Western indices. However, Asian markets have not mirrored the same enthusiasm. The Japanese market slipped amid renewed trade war fears, while China’s market moved higher. Indian equities, meanwhile, opened on a hopeful note, buoyed by easing inflation and the resumption of India–US trade talks.

Gold prices, however, continue to climb almost minute by minute, with speculative trading turning the bullion and silver markets into sources of concern for investors

India’s retail inflation in September eased to 1.54%, the lowest level in 99 months. Food prices fell 2.28%, while core inflation — excluding food and fuel — rose from 4.1% to 4.5%, signalling underlying price pressures.

For trade negotiations, Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agarwal and his delegation are expected to arrive in Washington this week, with indications pointing towards an agreement on a preliminary deal.

In the derivatives market, Gift Nifty closed at 24,305.00 on Monday night and climbed to 25,348 this morning, suggesting a positive opening for Indian markets.

Global markets

European markets staged a relief rally on Monday. Mining stocks surged by up to 9%, driven by optimism following developments in the ongoing China–US trade standoff. In a major move, the Dutch government took control of Nexperia, a chip manufacturing company previously managed by Chinese investors, to ensure semiconductor supply stability.

The US markets regained much of Friday’s losses after President Donald Trump reiterated that disputes with China would be resolved through dialogue. The completion of the first phase of the Gaza peace accord and Trump’s hint at potential reconciliation with Iran also helped lift sentiment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 587.98 points (1.29%) to close at 46,067.58. The S&P 500 gained 102.21 points (1.56%) to 6,654.72, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 490.18 points (2.21%) to 22,694.61.

Futures markets remained positive, with Dow up 0.24%, S&P up 0.22%, and Nasdaq up 0.34%. Major US banks are set to release their third-quarter earnings today and tomorrow.

Shares of Broadcom surged 9% after the firm signed a deal to manufacture chips for OpenAI, while other technology stocks also advanced.

Across Asia, markets moved in different directions. Japan’s index fell 1.5%, weighed down by concerns over China’s sharp increase in port fees for US ships. South Korea’s market rose 1%, Australia also traded higher, while China’s benchmark gained 0.75% and Hong Kong climbed 0.52%.

Indian market

Indian equities opened lower on Monday amid global headwinds but gradually pared losses to close slightly down. Foreign investors turned net sellers once again, while domestic institutions provided some support.

Weakness was seen in IT, FMCG, consumer durables, metals, and oil stocks, while defence shares also declined notably.

The Nifty slipped 58 points (0.23%) to close at 25,227.35, while the Sensex lost 173.77 points (0.21%) to settle at 82,327.05. The Bank Nifty rose marginally by 15.25 points (0.03%) to 56,625.10. The Midcap 100 index advanced 0.11%, while the Smallcap 100 fell 0.17%.

On the broader market, declines outweighed gains. On the BSE, 1,558 stocks advanced while 2,736 declined. On the NSE, 1,116 stocks rose against 1,971 that fell.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net buyers of ₹240.10 crore on Friday, while domestic funds purchased shares worth ₹2,333.42 crore.

Analysts noted that Nifty’s hold above 25,200 offers short-term support, with key resistance seen at 25,400–25,500 and support around 25,000–25,175

Emirates NBD eyes majority stake in RBL Bank

Reports indicate that Emirates NBD, one of the largest banks in the UAE, is in talks to acquire a 51% stake in RBL Bank. The lender, which has no promoter group, was formerly known as Ratnakar Bank. Currently, 52.32% of its shares are held by Indian financial institutions, 29.19% by mutual funds, and 17.56% by foreign investors.

Discussions include a proposal for preferential share allocation to Emirates NBD. The RBL Bank board is set to meet on October 18 to review quarterly results.

Emirates NBD was formed through the merger of the National Bank of Dubai and Emirates Bank International, and operates in multiple countries including Egypt, Turkey, Russia, Germany, Austria, the UK, and Singapore.

Corporate updates

LG Electronics is set to list today, with its IPO priced at ₹1,140 per share. The issue saw applications worth ₹4.5 lakh crore, a record figure, and carries a ₹430 premium in the grey market. Analysts at Motilal Oswal expect up to 83% listing gains, giving the stock a ‘Buy’ recommendation.

HCL Technologies reported a 10.6% rise in revenue, with net profit at ₹4,235 crore, showing muted growth. The company expects 3–5% revenue growth for the current year.

Just Dial posted a 6.4% rise in revenue and a 6.1% increase in operating profit, but net profit fell 22.5% year-on-year.

KEC International secured ₹1,174 crore worth of power line contracts in India and West Asia, while KFin Technologies invested $3.5 million to acquire a 51% stake in Singapore-based Ascent Fund Services.

Anand Rathi Wealth reported a 22.6% rise in revenue and 30.5% growth in profit in the second quarter.

Gold continues relentless rally

Gold prices show no sign of slowing. Despite a stronger dollar and progress in the Gaza peace talks, prices surged past $4,100 per ounce on Monday, closing at $4,111.50 — a gain of over 2%. Early Tuesday trading saw prices rise another 0.65% to $4,138.50.

Markets are moving on expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this year. Analysts at French bank Société Générale predict gold could reach $5,000 per ounce by end-2026, though current momentum suggests it may happen sooner.

Global central banks continue to boost gold reserves, which now account for 24% of foreign exchange holdings — the highest in 30 years. Over the past three years, central banks have collectively purchased more than 1,000 tonnes of gold annually.

In Kerala, 22-carat gold reached a record ₹91,960 per sovereign on Monday morning, with global trends pointing to further gains.

Silver and other commodities

Silver prices are also on a record run, touching $52.68 per ounce, while platinum climbed to $1,652. Palladium and rhodium also traded higher.

Industrial metals, however, saw profit-taking. Copper fell 1.08% to $10,617.45 per tonne, aluminium dropped 1.22%, and tin declined 1.64%. Zinc gained slightly, while nickel and lead slipped.

In the global commodity market, rubber fell 0.29%, cocoa dropped to $5,829.30 per tonne, its lowest in two years due to ample supply, while coffee rose 2.73%. Palm oil prices declined 1.1%, falling below 5,000 Malaysian ringgit per tonne.

Dollar strengthens further

The US Dollar Index climbed to 99.27 on Monday and touched 99.32 in early trading today. The euro weakened to $1.1565, and the pound slipped to $1.3329, while the yen depreciated to ¥152.40 per dollar.

US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year note yielding 4.051%. The Indian rupee recovered slightly after early fluctuations, closing at ₹88.67 per dollar, down two paise. The Chinese yuan remained steady at ¥7.11 per dollar.

Crude and crypto

Crude oil prices extended gains, with Brent crude closing at $63.39 and rising further to $63.61 this morning. WTI traded near $59.80, while Murban crude was at $65.06. Natural gas prices slipped 1%.

Cryptocurrencies saw mild recovery. Bitcoin traded above $114,400, Ether rose to $4,245, and Solana surged 5.5% to $209.