During the recent holidays, the Indian stock market managed to end the previous week on a positive note. However, uncertainty continues to cloud the global landscape. The prolonged government shutdown in the United States has raised concerns, even as hopes for peace in Gaza have brightened. Meanwhile, the situation in Ukraine remains volatile, leaving investors cautious.
There is also no clarity on whether India–US trade talks will resume soon. The biggest source of worry for global markets continues to be trade tariffs. Crude oil, which had dipped earlier, has begun to climb again, while gold prices have surged past $3,900 an ounce — a reflection of growing anxiety among investors. Bitcoin’s sharp rally, crossing $125,000, has further fuelled speculation about the state of the US economy.
In the derivatives market, the GIFT Nifty closed at 24,970.00 on Friday night. On Monday morning, it fluctuated between 24,987 and 24,952, hovering around the 24,965 mark — suggesting a weak opening for Indian markets.
European stocks closed higher on Friday but retreated slightly after hitting record levels. Germany’s DAX index ended marginally lower, while defence-related shares gained amid reports that European nations are preparing a “drone wall” to counter Russia.
As the US government shutdown entered its third day on Friday, American markets moved in mixed directions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.51%, while the S&P 500 closed flat with a 0.01% gain. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.28%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 index climbed 0.72%. Optimism that the deadlock would be resolved over the weekend faded by Sunday night, with little progress reported.
President Donald Trump warned that a prolonged shutdown could result in 7.5 lakh government employees losing their jobs. He is also withholding funding for programmes in Democrat-led states, increasing political tensions. Democrats, in turn, are accusing Trump of triggering the crisis to gain public sympathy.
Due to the shutdown, the September employment report was not released on Friday, and upcoming economic data may also be delayed. Analysts warn that unless the issue is resolved before the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on October 28–29, the lack of updated data could affect the Fed’s decisions. Despite this, some analysts, such as Tom Lee of Fundstrat, remain bullish — predicting that the S&P 500 could hit 7,000 by year-end if corporate results remain strong.
In futures trading, US indices were in the green on Monday morning, with the Dow up 0.11%, the S&P 500 up 0.20%, and the Nasdaq rising 0.30%.
Asian markets opened partially on Monday, with Chinese and South Korean exchanges closed for holidays. Japan’s stock market surged more than 4% as investors welcomed the new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi. The Nikkei crossed 47,700, driven by expectations that Takaichi’s government will pursue stimulus measures and allow a weaker yen. Known for her Thatcherite views, Takaichi is Japan’s first female prime minister — and investors are keen to see whether she will emulate Margaret Thatcher’s strength or Liz Truss’s missteps.
After a volatile week, Indian equities closed Friday with small gains. The Nifty ended 57.95 points (0.23%) higher at 24,894.25, while the Sensex rose 223.86 points (0.28%) to 81,207.17. The Bank Nifty advanced 0.44% to 55,589.25. Mid-cap and small-cap indices outperformed the benchmarks, climbing 0.83% and 0.69% respectively.
Metal, PSU bank, consumer durables, and defence stocks led the rally, with names like Astra Microwave, Data Patterns, Paras Defence, and Mishra Dhatu Nigam soaring between 4% and 12%. Jewellery shares also gained in line with the sharp rise in gold prices.
Market breadth remained positive — on the BSE, 2,636 stocks advanced against 1,568 that declined. Foreign institutional investors sold equities worth ₹1,583.37 crore on Friday, while domestic funds purchased ₹489.76 crore. Overall, FIIs withdrew ₹23,885 crore from Indian markets in September. Analysts say Nifty must cross the key 25,000 level for the uptrend to sustain, while support is seen at 24,600.
Several major companies are set to raise capital this week through IPOs, including Tata Capital (₹15,512 crore) and LG Electronics (₹11,607 crore), totalling nearly ₹30,000 crore.
HDFC Bank reported a 15.1% rise in deposits and a 9.9% increase in loans in the second quarter.
IndusInd Bank’s deposits fell 5%, while loans dropped 8%.
Bajaj Finance saw deposits up 5.47% and loans up 26%.
Bandhan Bank’s deposits rose 10.9%, loans 7.2%, though CASA deposits slipped 6.5%.
Ujjivan Small Finance Bank’s deposits grew 14.8% and loans 14%.
Avenue Supermarts (DMart) posted a 15.4% increase in quarterly revenue.
Dhanlaxmi Bank’s deposits rose 16.9% and total loans 18.39%.
Vedanta’s aluminium output rose 1%, while zinc and silver production declined 6% and 22% respectively. Sobha Ltd recorded a 61.44% jump in sales, and Nykaa’s revenue grew nearly 25%.
Gold prices surged close to $3,900 an ounce last week, supported by safe-haven demand amid the US political deadlock. The metal briefly touched $3,920 before settling around $3,912 on Friday. Analysts believe continued turmoil could push gold beyond $4,000. Colin Cieszynski of SIA Wealth Management said a decisive move above $3,900 could accelerate the rally toward $4,000.
Some long-term forecasts are even more bullish — Elliott Wave analysts predict gold could reach $8,000–$10,000 by 2030, while Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank expect $5,000 by 2026.
In Kerala, 22-carat gold rose sharply from ₹86,560 to ₹87,560 per sovereign on Saturday, and traders expect it to cross ₹88,000 soon. Silver also strengthened, closing at $48.04 an ounce and trading up to $48.33 early Monday, with expectations of hitting $50.
The US dollar index, which ended Friday at 97.72, climbed to 98.09 on Monday. The euro weakened to $1.171, the pound to $1.343, and the yen fell to 149.24 per dollar. The Japanese yen’s decline reflects expectations that Takaichi will favour higher fiscal spending.
US 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.121%. The Indian rupee slipped further, closing at ₹88.77 per dollar on Friday.
Among industrial metals, copper gained 0.79% to $10,537.50 a tonne, aluminium rose to $2,706.30, and tin surged 3.64% to $37,700. Rubber prices rose 1.67%, cocoa fell 4.49%, while coffee and tea gained 2.71% and 0.71%, respectively.
Crude oil rebounded after a 7% weekly decline, with Brent closing at $64.53 and WTI at $61.72 per barrel. OPEC’s plan to raise daily output by 1.37 lakh barrels — less than expected — helped prices recover slightly.
Bitcoin hit a new record of $125,689 before easing to $124,050. The cryptocurrency has doubled since last October and gained 30% this year. Analysts from Citi Group forecast Bitcoin could reach $133,000 by December, while JPMorgan sees $165,000 and Standard Chartered even predicts $200,000. Weekly inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have reached $5 billion, pushing its market cap to $2.37 trillion — now the world’s seventh-largest asset, ahead of Amazon. Ethereum rose to $4,530, while Solana climbed to $232.
