Indian markets are expected to witness a strong upswing today, buoyed by two key global developments—a tentative ceasefire along the India-Pakistan border and signs of progress in trade talks between the United States and China. US futures jumped more than 1%, gold prices slipped, and crude oil remained elevated.
While no official ceasefire agreement has been signed between India and Pakistan, the absence of incidents on Sunday is being seen as a positive signal. The Indian Army continues its "Operation Sindoor", but military leaders from both sides are reportedly in communication today, raising hopes of further de-escalation.
Details of the US-China trade agreement are yet to be made public. However, US Treasury Secretary Scott Besent indicated that the two sides had reached a consensus aimed at reducing the American trade deficit. Optimism over this development helped lift sentiment across global equity markets.
On Friday night, Gift Nifty closed at 24,087. It opened at 24,406 this morning and surged to 24,610 before easing slightly. This points to a likely bullish start for Indian markets today.
European indices rallied on Friday. Germany’s DAX closed at an all-time high of 23,499.3, with optimism surrounding the US-China negotiations fuelling the gains. US markets, after a strong start on trade deal expectations, pared some gains towards the end of the session.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped by 119.07 points (0.29%) to close at 41,249.38. The S&P 500 eased by 4.03 points (0.07%) to finish at 5659.91. The Nasdaq edged up marginally by 0.78 points to 17,928.92.
Following the weekend developments, US futures opened sharply higher on Monday morning. Dow futures rose 1.11%, S&P 500 gained 1.44%, and Nasdaq futures surged by 1.96%.
Asian markets reflected the global positive trend. Japan’s Nikkei advanced by 0.35%, while Hong Kong and Shanghai indices also opened in the green.
Despite the global optimism, Indian markets had closed with significant losses on Friday amid rising border tensions. Foreign investors turned heavy sellers, triggering sharp volatility. The Nifty fluctuated between a low of 23,935 and a high of 24,164 before closing at 24,008, down 265.80 points or 1.10%. The Sensex fell by 880.34 points (1.10%) to close at 79,454.47.
Bank Nifty ended the session down 770.40 points (1.42%) at 53,595.25. The Midcap 100 index closed almost flat, losing just 5.95 points, while the Smallcap 100 index was down by 98.10 points or 0.61%.
On the BSE, the advance-decline ratio favoured the declines. Out of the total traded stocks, 1222 advanced and 2656 declined. On the NSE, 1065 stocks rose while 1738 fell.
A total of 16 stocks on the NSE hit 52-week highs, whereas 113 touched their yearly lows. Around 28 stocks hit upper circuits, while 110 slipped to their lower circuit limits.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold ₹3798.71 crore worth of equities in the cash segment on Friday, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) purchased shares worth ₹7277.74 crore.
The Nifty had breached the 24,200 support level on Friday before recovering towards the close. Today, immediate support lies at 23,950 and 23,890, while resistance may be seen at 24,120 and 24,180.
Gold prices declined over the weekend following reports that a trade agreement between the US and China was taking shape. Gold, which ended the week at $3,326 per ounce, dropped by nearly 1.5% to $3,280 on Sunday evening and slid further to $3,270 this morning. Prices could dip further in the near term.
In Kerala, gold prices fell by ₹680 over two days, reaching ₹72,360 per sovereign. Prices are expected to soften further today.
Silver prices also dipped, settling at $32.56 per ounce on Friday. Meanwhile, copper rose 0.78% to $9485.05 per tonne. Aluminium slipped 0.27% to $2406.32. Other industrial metals, including tin (up 0.08%), lead (up 3.48%), nickel (up 0.52%) and zinc (up 2.30%) ended higher.
In the global commodity markets, rubber prices declined 0.58% to 171.30 cents per kg. Cocoa rose by 0.60% to $9184.50 per tonne, coffee slipped by 0.88%, and palm oil gained 0.37%.
The US Dollar Index remained above the 100-mark on Friday, closing at 100.34 and rising further to 100.65 this morning. The Euro fell to 1.123 against the dollar, the Pound slipped to 1.328, and the Japanese Yen weakened to 146.12 against the greenback.
Yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds climbed to 4.41% as bond prices declined. On Friday, the Indian rupee had gained 34 paise to close at ₹85.37 against the dollar. The easing of India-Pakistan tensions and positive news from the US-China front are expected to support the rupee today.
China’s yuan weakened to 7.24 against the dollar.
Crude oil prices surged on expectations that the US-China trade agreement may help end the ongoing trade war. Brent crude rose 2.5% over the weekend to reach $64.23 per barrel, while WTI crude stood at $61.35. As of this morning, Brent was trading at $64.03, WTI at $61.15, and Murban crude at $64.56 per barrel.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies remained on a strong upward trajectory, driven by hopes of an end to the global trade conflict. Bitcoin soared past $104,000 today, while Ethereum surged over the weekend by 26% to trade above $2,500.
