Nifty likely to weaken further as momentum indicators signal downtrend

Based on market closing on November 14 

On Thursday, the Nifty closed at 23,532.70, down 26.35 points (-0.11%). The 200-day SMA at 23,555 acts as the nearest resistance, and staying below this level could sustain the downtrend.  

The index opened negatively at 25,542.70, tested an intraday high of 23,675.90 in the morning, and then fell to an intraday low of 23,484.20 before closing at 23,532.70. Sector-wise, media, realty, auto, and private banks were gainers, while FMCG, PSU banks, pharma, and metals underperformed. Market breadth was positive, with 1,380 stocks advancing, 1,298 declining, and 99 unchanged. Key gainers included EICHERMOT, HEROMOTOCO, HDFCLIFE, and RELIANCE, while HINDUNILVR, TATACONSUM, BRITANNIA, and BPCL were the top losers.

From a technical perspective, momentum indicators point to a negative trend, with the Nifty trading below its long-term and medium-term moving averages. The formation of a Doji candle on the daily chart and a close just below the 200-day SMA at 23,555 indicate bearish momentum. If the index remains below this key level, the downtrend is likely to persist. Short-term support is at 23,150, while the nearest intraday resistance is at 23,600. Sustaining above 23,600 is crucial for any potential bounce back.

Intraday levels:

Support: 23,500, 23,400, 23,300

Resistance: 23,600, 23,700-23,800 (15-minute charts)

Positional trading:

Short-term support: 23,150-22,750

Resistance: 23,800-24,500

Bank Nifty technical outlook 

In the previous session, Bank Nifty closed at 50,179.55, gaining 91.20 points. While momentum indicators signal a negative trend, the index remains below its short- and medium-term moving averages.

A small white candle formed on the daily chart, closing above the prior session's close, suggesting potential consolidation. On the downside, the index has multiple supports in the 49,900–49,600 range. The 200-day EMA and SMA are at 49,907 and 49,750, respectively, with short-term support at 49,600. Sustaining below these levels could extend the negative trend, while a pullback rally is possible if it remains above these levels. The nearest intraday resistance is at 50,350.

Intraday levels (15-Minute Charts): 

Support: 50,000, 49,750, 49,500

Resistance: 50,350, 50,650, 51,000

Positional levels: 

Support: 49,600–48,300

Resistance: 51,000–52,400