The prolonged conflict in West Asia and disruptions to crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are continuing to shake global markets. US markets fell sharply again on Thursday and Asian markets opened lower today. Indications suggest Indian equities may also start the day in negative territory.
Rising crude prices and shortages of cooking gas and natural gas are raising concerns about the global economic outlook. It is becoming increasingly clear that a quick solution to the energy crisis is unlikely.
Inflationary pressures are also mounting. India’s retail inflation for February climbed to 3.21 percent, the highest level in 11 months even before the war escalated. Analysts now expect inflation to cross the Reserve Bank of India’s medium-term target of 4 percent from March onwards. If price pressures intensify, the RBI could face renewed pressure to raise interest rates. A prolonged war could also reduce India’s GDP growth below current projections and strain the government’s budget assumptions.
In derivatives trading at GIFT City, Gift Nifty rose to 23,587 this morning after closing around 23,494.50 on Thursday night, signalling a weak opening for domestic markets.
US markets extended losses on Thursday as investors saw little immediate path to an end to the conflict or a decline in oil prices. All three major indices touched their lowest levels of 2026.
The Dow Jones fell 739.42 points (1.56 percent) to close at 46,677.85.
The S&P 500 dropped 103.18 points (1.52 percent) to 6,672.62.
The Nasdaq declined 404.16 points (1.78 percent) to finish at 22,311.98.
US futures were trading slightly higher this morning, with the Dow futures up about 228 points (0.49 percent), S&P futures up 0.42 percent and Nasdaq futures gaining 0.35 percent.
European markets also ended Thursday with significant losses.
Asian markets remained weak today. Japan’s Nikkei was down about 1.5 percent while South Korea’s Kospi slipped nearly 3 percent. Australia’s index initially declined 0.5 percent before recovering slightly. Hong Kong and Chinese markets also opened lower.
Indian benchmark indices have entered correction territory after falling more than 10 percent from their January highs. Since the war began, indices have already lost around 6.5 percent.
The Sensex dropped 829.29 points (1.08 percent) on Thursday to close at 76,034.42. The Nifty 50 fell 227.70 points (0.95 percent) to 23,639.15. Bank Nifty declined 634.80 points (1.14 percent) to 55,100.95.
Broader markets also weakened. Midcap 100 fell 207.35 points (0.37 percent) to 56,253.75, while Smallcap 100 declined 109.60 points (0.67 percent) to 16,305.25.
Market breadth remained negative. On the BSE, 1,598 stocks advanced while 2,645 declined. On the NSE, 1,234 shares gained and 1,955 fell.
Foreign investors continued selling on Thursday, with net sales of ₹7,049.87 crore in the cash market. Domestic institutional investors bought shares worth ₹7,449.77 crore.
Gold prices fell again amid concerns that rising crude prices and persistent inflation could force central banks to raise interest rates.
After moving between $5,054 and $5,193 an ounce on Thursday, gold closed at $5,080.40. It rose slightly to about $5,118 this morning.
Silver climbed to $87.56 an ounce before closing at $84.01. It was trading around $85.20 this morning.
Platinum was at $2,150 an ounce, palladium at $1,617 and rhodium at $11,000.
In Kerala, 22-carat gold fell ₹360 on Thursday to ₹1,18,960 per sovereign.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange, 24-carat gold closed at ₹1,60,185 per 10 grams, while silver ended at ₹2,68,156 per kilogram.
Industrial metals traded in mixed directions.
Copper rose 0.36 percent to $12,896.40 per tonne.
Aluminium jumped 2.13 percent to $3,514.31 as supplies from West Asia faced disruption. More than 10 percent of global aluminium output comes from the region.
Nickel and lead gained, while zinc and tin declined.
Rubber prices slipped 0.20 percent in international markets to 198.80 cents per kilogram. Synthetic rubber prices rose 2.13 percent to 15,566.67 yuan per tonne.
Cocoa prices fell 2.71 percent to $3,336 per tonne.
Tea prices remained unchanged while coffee gained 1.34 percent. Palm oil climbed to 4,522 Malaysian ringgit per tonne.
Polyethylene, polypropylene and PVC prices rose by up to 1 percent. Urea and diammonium phosphate also edged higher.
The dollar index rose to 99.74 on Thursday before easing slightly to around 99.61 this morning.
The euro slipped to $1.1519 and the pound weakened to $1.3356.
The Japanese yen fell to 159.17 per dollar, while the Chinese yuan traded around 6.87 per dollar.
US 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.261 percent as investors anticipated higher inflation and interest rates.
The rupee weakened further on Thursday, with the dollar rising 15 paise to close at ₹92.19.
In the offshore non-deliverable forward market, the dollar climbed to ₹92.39 overnight. The Chinese yuan traded near ₹13.45 while the euro stood around ₹106.46. These movements could influence currency trading in India today.
Crude oil prices remain elevated as disruptions continue.
The US has temporarily eased restrictions on purchases of Russian oil currently in transit, allowing shipments to be received until April 11. Around 124 million barrels are estimated to be in transit.
Global oil consumption in 2024 averaged about 104 million barrels per day. A group of 32 countries has also agreed to release about 400 million barrels from strategic reserves to ease supply shortages.
Prices surged after Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei warned that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could be blocked.
Brent crude jumped 10 percent on Thursday to close at $100.50 a barrel and was trading around $99.90 this morning. WTI crude was near $95.08 while UAE’s Murban crude was around $117.7.
Cryptocurrencies moved higher.
Bitcoin was trading near $71,700 this morning, while Ether rose above $2,125 and Solana traded above $90.
(March 12, Thursday)
Sensex: 76,034.42 (-1.08%)
Nifty 50: 23,639.15 (-0.95%)
Bank Nifty: 55,100.95 (-1.14%)
Midcap 100: 56,253.75 (-0.37%)
Smallcap 100: 16,305.25 (-0.67%)
Dow Jones: 46,677.85 (-1.56%)
S&P 500: 6,672.62 (-1.52%)
Nasdaq: 22,311.98 (-1.78%)
Dollar: ₹92.19 (+₹0.15)
Gold (ounce): $5,080.40 (-$96.80)
Gold (sovereign): ₹1,18,960 (-₹360)
Brent crude: $100.50 (+$8.52)
