India’s first quarter GDP at constant prices grew by 7.8%, comfortably beating expectations and last year’s 6.5%. At current prices, however, growth slowed to 8.8% compared with 9.7% a year earlier.
Since the Union Budget was prepared on the assumption of double-digit nominal growth, this weaker showing has raised questions about fiscal arithmetic.
The tone of India–China relations has become more cordial, while the successful Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit gave investors a sense of relief. Even so, uncertainty continues as a US appellate court recently ruled American tariffs on India unlawful, only to stay enforcement until October 14. This means the trade dispute could drag on for months. Asian markets reflected this unease by opening weaker.
Reliance Industries brightened sentiment with the announcement that Jio’s IPO will take place in the first half of next year. Derivatives trading also hinted at optimism, with Gift Nifty, which had closed at 24,553 on Friday, rising as high as 24,621 on Monday morning before easing slightly. The movement suggests Indian equities may start the week on a stronger footing.
European indices ended lower on Friday, weighed down by a proposal to impose a windfall tax on UK banks and comments from the German chancellor suggesting little hope of peace in Ukraine. US stocks too slipped as investors booked profits after recent record highs. The Dow lost 0.20%, the S&P 500 fell 0.64% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.15%. September has historically been the weakest month for American equities since 1950. Futures on Monday, however, pointed to a modest rebound. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei dropped 1.9%, while Hong Kong and Shanghai opened stronger.
Back home, Indian markets ended Friday in the red as foreign investors stepped up selling, offloading shares worth ₹8,092.90 crore. Domestic institutions cushioned the fall by buying ₹10,925.34 crore worth of equities. The Nifty closed at 24,426.85, the Sensex at 79,809.65 and the Bank Nifty at 53,655.65. Analysts warn that unless Nifty holds above 24,400, sharper corrections may follow.
Precious metals extended their rally. Spot gold closed at $3,448.70 an ounce, with futures suggesting the metal could push higher despite resistance near $3,500. In India, 22-carat gold prices hit ₹76,960 per sovereign. Silver, meanwhile, surged to $39.75 an ounce, and many analysts predict a super-cycle driven by solar demand.
The dollar index slipped to 97.77, boosting the euro and pound. The rupee, however, weakened beyond ₹88 to the dollar for the first time, closing at 88.20. Brent crude softened to $67.16 a barrel, though Murban crude spiked on the back of Russian supply shifts. In crypto, Bitcoin remained under pressure at $1,07,500, while investors flocked to Solana, which has gained 40% in a month.
Social media was abuzz over the weekend with false claims that President Donald Trump had died. The rumours subsided only after photos of him playing golf with his grandchildren were released. Doctors had earlier disclosed that he suffers from chronic venous insufficiency, a condition affecting blood flow in the veins, but noted that he faces no immediate risk.
