Following the recent court ruling, the US trade tariff issue has entered a fresh phase of uncertainty. Markets are closely watching what President Donald Trump will decide next.
Earlier announcements, agreements and understandings now appear irrelevant. The current tariff stands at 15% and is applicable for 150 days. Any extension beyond that would require approval from the US Congress.
Trump has indicated that instead of this interim 15%, a permanent tariff structure could be decided country by country after investigations.
Talks with India, which were earlier scheduled to begin today toward a trade agreement, have now been postponed indefinitely. Over the weekend, Trump hinted at insisting on an 18% rate. He also claimed that India will not levy tariffs on US goods.
Reports suggest the possibility of a limited US strike on Iran. However, such action could be avoided if Iran submits a fresh proposal today or tomorrow to continue talks on the nuclear issue. Talks are scheduled in Geneva on Friday.
Crude oil prices have declined, signalling that markets believe the probability of an immediate attack has reduced.
In derivatives trading at GIFT City, GIFT Nifty surged 400 points on Friday night to 25,886, with record trading volumes, following the US court ruling on tariffs. After subsequent developments, it slipped to 25,675 in early trade today, rebounded to 25,775 and eased again.
The indication is that Indian markets may open over 150 points higher today.
In the US ADR market, Infosys rose 0.69% on Friday and gained a further 0.25% in extended trading. Wipro climbed 0.89% and added another 1.77% later.
US markets ended Friday with strong gains after heavy volatility. The rally followed the Supreme Court’s order nullifying Trump’s reciprocal tariff plan.
Earlier in the session, weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP growth rattled markets. Growth came in at 1.4% against expectations of 2.5%, compared with 4.4% in the previous quarter. A prolonged government shutdown was cited as a reason for the slowdown.
Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation, excluding food and fuel, rose to 3%, higher than expected, further adding to volatility.
Dow Jones swung over 500 points before closing up 230.81 points (0.47%) at 49,625.97
S&P 500 gained 47.62 points (0.69%) to 6,909.51
Nasdaq Composite rose 203.34 points (0.90%) to 22,886.07
US futures are trading lower this morning: Dow down 0.50%, S&P 0.60%, Nasdaq 0.77%.
European markets closed sharply higher on Friday, driven by the US court ruling.
Markets in China and Japan are closed today. Australia is down 0.60%. South Korea surged 1.5% to a record high, on expectations that a uniform 15% US tariff would benefit it. Hong Kong jumped over 2%.
Hopes that there would be no immediate US strike on Iran, along with expectations that US–India trade talks would begin Monday, lifted Indian markets on Friday. However, IT stocks continued to decline.
Banking and metal stocks supported headline indices, though the broader market remained weak.
After a soft opening, the market surged before noon, with Sensex touching 83,132 and Nifty 25,663 before retreating sharply.
IT index has declined for three consecutive weeks, losing 17% in that period and over 30% from its December peak.
Sensex closed up 316.51 points (0.38%) at 82,814.71
Nifty rose 116.90 points (0.46%) to 25,571.25
Bank Nifty gained 432.45 points (0.71%) to 61,172.00
Midcap 100 rose 0.48%
Smallcap 100 fell 0.11%
Market breadth remained negative.
Foreign institutional investors were net sellers, selling ₹934.61 crore. Domestic institutions bought ₹2,637.15 crore.
If Nifty falls below Thursday’s closing level of 25,400, it may move toward 25,200–25,100. Holding above 25,400 could push it toward 25,500–25,600. Supports are seen at 25,425 and 25,360; resistance at 25,650 and 25,720.
A major fraud involving ₹590 crore has been detected in the Haryana government’s account at IDFC First Bank’s Chandigarh branch. The incident is likely to weigh on the bank’s stock today.
Four bank employees have been suspended in connection with the irregularity. The fraud reportedly came to light after the Haryana government requested closure of the account and its transfer to another bank.
Global accounting firm KPMG has been appointed to conduct a detailed forensic investigation into the matter.
The amount involved exceeds the bank’s net profit for the previous quarter. It represents around 20% of the profit the bank had expected to earn this financial year and about 1.2% of its net worth. The bank’s management is scheduled to address analysts’ queries later this morning.
HDFC Asset Management Company has increased its stake in Aster DM Healthcare to above 7%, strengthening its holding in the healthcare services provider.
Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC), over the past three months, has acquired more than 2% additional stake in pharmaceutical major Cipla, raising its total shareholding to 9.1%.
UPL (formerly United Phosphorus) has announced a restructuring of its corporate structure. The company plans to list two separate entities — UPL and UPL Global Agri Solutions.
Promoters will hold 33.1% in UPL and 71.6% in UPL Global Agri Solutions. Under the restructuring plan, the agri-solutions business will remain under UPL, while the crop protection business will be housed under UPL Global Agri Solutions.
Amid war fears and tariff uncertainty, gold and silver surged Friday.
Gold rose 2.22%, silver 7.77%. Gold closed at $5,107.90 per ounce after touching $5,108.70. It climbed to $5,171.80 this morning before easing to around $5,158.
In Kerala, 22-carat gold rose to ₹1,15,400 per sovereign Friday and ₹1,16,800 on Saturday.
On MCX, 24-carat gold closed at ₹1,56,993 per 10g. Silver ended at ₹2,52,042 per kg.
Platinum rose to $2,185, palladium $1,745, rhodium $10,800.
Copper rose 0.98% to $12,749.85 per tonne. Aluminium gained 0.87%. Nickel and zinc rose; tin and lead fell.
Natural rubber in the international market rose 0.10%, reaching 192.70 cents per kilogram.
After several weeks of continuous decline, cocoa prices rebounded sharply on Friday, rising 3.92% to $3,178 per tonne.
Despite this recovery, cocoa has fallen 28.55% over the past one month and remains down 65% on a year-on-year basis.
Stocks of cocoa in warehouses in Ghana and Ivory Coast are currently at record levels. Favourable weather conditions across West Africa have supported higher production, keeping global supplies elevated. Output has also increased in Latin America, adding to the supply pressure in international markets.
Tea prices rose 1.37%, while coffee edged up 0.11%.
Palm oil gained 2.79%, with prices climbing to 4,123 Malaysian ringgit per tonne.
The US dollar index closed at 97.80 on Friday and weakened further in early trade today, slipping to 97.36.
Among major currencies, the euro strengthened to $1.1825, while the British pound rose to $1.3518.
The Japanese yen appreciated to 154.20 per US dollar. The Chinese yuan remained steady at 6.91 per dollar.
The rupee weakened on Friday, with the exchange rate declining by 0.35%. The US dollar rose by 31 paise to close at ₹90.98.
Volatility surrounding the tariff issue could influence the rupee’s movement today. In the overseas non-deliverable forward (NDF) market, the dollar declined. In early trade this morning, the dollar was quoted at ₹90.77.
The Chinese yuan slipped to ₹13.13 in rupee terms. The impact of these global currency movements is expected to be reflected in today’s trading in the Indian market.
Crude oil prices are declining on the backdrop of moderating war tensions between US and Iran.
Brent crude closed at $71.76 and fell to $70.90 this morning.
WTI is at $65.66.
Natural gas rose to $3.181.
Bitcoin fell below $64,500.
Ether slipped below $1,860.
Solana fell below $78.
(20 February 2026, Friday)
