Progress in the India–United States trade dialogue is expected to push markets to greater heights. Following yesterday’s six-hour discussion in New Delhi between US assistant trade representative Brendan Lynch and India’s commerce ministry, both sides described the exchange as “productive”, though no details were disclosed. Talks will continue online.
Although US markets ended lower on Tuesday, futures are trading with modest gains today, while Asian markets remain mixed. The Federal Reserve’s much-awaited interest rate decision is due tonight, keeping investors cautious worldwide.
Gift Nifty closed at 25,336.00 on Tuesday night and rose to 25,403 in early trade today, suggesting Indian equities are likely to open in positive territory. Adding a political note, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who turns 75 today, received birthday wishes from US President Donald Trump over a phone call. Modi acknowledged the gesture in a social media post where he also mentioned the trade talks, hinting at improving ties. Markets see this as a signal of goodwill, though it is still unclear where compromises may be struck.
European shares slipped on Tuesday as investors remained cautious in the run-up to the Fed’s policy announcement. Germany’s benchmark index fell 1.77 per cent, with bank stocks suffering the sharpest losses. Market attention has turned firmly to the prospect of rate cuts in the US and their impact on global inflation.
Wall Street closed in negative territory on Tuesday as profit-taking and persistent inflation worries overshadowed expectations of a rate cut. The Dow Jones fell by 125.55 points, or 0.27 per cent, to close at 45,757.90. The S&P 500 slipped 8.52 points, or 0.13 per cent, to 6,606.76, while the Nasdaq Composite eased 14.79 points, or 0.07 per cent, to 22,333.96.
Tesla shares advanced, but Nvidia dipped. Warner Bros Discovery, along with Paramount–Skydance which is eyeing an acquisition, also lost ground. Futures trading today shows slight upward momentum across the three major indices, with gains of around 0.06–0.09 per cent.
Asian markets showed mixed performance today. Japan’s Nikkei initially fell but later recovered, despite exports declining for the fourth straight month. South Korea, Australia and China opened lower, whereas Hong Kong managed to move higher. The divergence reflects lingering uncertainty around the Fed’s decision and regional trade prospects.
Indian equities rallied strongly on Tuesday, buoyed by optimism from the India–US trade dialogue. Benchmarks closed at their highest levels in two months, with gains spread across sectors. Realty stocks drove the surge, followed by autos, IT, consumer durables, and public sector banks.
The Nifty climbed by 169.90 points, or 0.68 per cent, to close at 25,239.10. The Sensex jumped 594.95 points, or 0.73 per cent, to 82,380.69. Bank Nifty added 259.75 points, or 0.47 per cent, to 55,147.60. The Midcap 100 gained 313.45 points, or 0.54 per cent, to 58,799.55, while the Smallcap 100 advanced 171.35 points, or 0.95 per cent, to 18,298.35.
Market breadth was firmly in favour of gainers, with more stocks advancing than declining. Foreign investors were net buyers of equities worth ₹308.32 crore, while domestic funds bought shares worth ₹1,518.73 crore. Analysts believe Nifty has crossed its resistance zone, with immediate support seen near 25,000–25,115 and resistance around 25,265–25,310.
Gold once again rallied ahead of the Fed’s decision, breaching $3,700 per ounce. A weaker dollar offered further support. Spot gold touched $3,703.20 before closing at $3,691.10, while it briefly hit $3,732.30 in overnight trading. In Kerala, 22-carat sovereign gold soared by ₹640 to reach a record ₹82,080 per eight grams.
Silver also climbed, reaching $42.5 an ounce. Analysts suggest gold could approach $4,000 and silver $50 this year, with some brokerages raising their year-end gold target to $4,200.
Base metals traded in mixed directions. Copper reclaimed the $10,000-a-tonne mark, closing at $10,071.40, up 0.86 per cent. Aluminium also gained 0.34 per cent, but lead, tin and nickel slipped. Rubber prices in international markets rose slightly, while cocoa and coffee declined by over 3 per cent each. Tea and palm oil prices remained unchanged.
The dollar index fell below 97, closing at 96.63, marking its weakest level in four years. Early trade today saw it dip further to 96.58. The euro strengthened to $1.1868, the pound to $1.3656, and the yen climbed to 146.25 per dollar.
The Indian rupee ended stronger at 88.05 against the dollar, supported by global weakness in the greenback. China’s yuan moved to 7.11 per dollar, with the central bank allowing gradual appreciation.
US Treasury yields eased slightly as investors shifted towards gold and other assets. The yield on the 10-year bond fell to 4.028 per cent.
Oil prices continued their upward run amid expectations of reduced Russian supply. Markets are closely watching whether India’s trade talks with the US will shift its crude imports away from Russia towards West Asia. Brent crude rose more than 1 per cent on Tuesday to settle at $68.53 and climbed further to $68.66 in early trade today. WTI stood at $64.57, while Murban crude traded at $71.55. Natural gas gained 1 per cent.
Cryptocurrencies also firmed up. Bitcoin advanced to $116,700, Solana traded at $237, while Ether eased slightly to $4,515.
