Weekly commodity market outlook: trend remains positive
Outlook for this week
Commodity markets are expected to remain volatile (prices moving up and down sharply) in the near term, but the overall trend looks positive. Precious metals such as gold and silver may continue to attract buyers whenever prices dip (small temporary falls), supported by geopolitical tensions, a weaker US dollar, and expectations that major central banks may ease monetary policy (reduce interest rates or keep them low). However, prices may also move sideways for a period at higher levels, a phase known as consolidation (prices stabilising after a sharp rise).
Key expectations
Precious metals
Likely to attract buyers on dips (temporary price declines).
Supported by geopolitical uncertainty (global tension risk).
Helped by a softer dollar (weakening of the US currency).
Expectations of central banks easing policy (possible interest rate cuts).
Energy commodities
Expected to trade sideways within fixed price ranges (range-bound trading).
Crude oil may find support at lower levels (prices stop falling as buyers step in).
Natural gas may remain volatile due to weather patterns and inventory data (storage levels).
Important market drivers
US economic data, including inflation figures, jobs data and PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index, a measure of economic activity).
Central bank guidance on interest rates.
Movements in the US dollar and bond yields (returns on government bonds).
Last week's performance
Gold
Opened at $4,595.86 (around ₹4,21,800).
Closed at $4,988.17 (around ₹4,57,400).
Weekly gain of about 8.5 percent.
Prices ended near weekly highs, indicating strong upward momentum (price strength).
Technical view shows gold trading well above its medium-term moving averages (average prices over a specific period used to identify trends). This confirms that the long-term trend remains bullish (upward).
Resistance seen near $5,180 (around ₹4,75,400).
Support expected near $4,550–$4,500 (around ₹4,17,000–₹4,12,700).
Deeper support located around $4,280 (around ₹3,92,400).
Silver
Opened at $90.90 (around ₹8,330).
Closed at $103.27 (around ₹9,470).
Weekly gain of about 14.6 percent.
Outperformed most commodities due to strong buying interest.
Silver remains in a strong uptrend (prices rising). A decisive move above $95.70 (around ₹8,780) strengthened bullish sentiment.
Resistance near $105.60 (around ₹9,680).
Support on pullbacks at $95.70 (around ₹8,780).
Additional support near $88.80 (around ₹8,140).
Brent crude oil
Opened at $63.63 (around ₹5,840).
Closed at $66.28 (around ₹6,080).
Weekly gain of about 3.2 percent.
After a corrective phase (recent period of falling prices), crude oil showed early signs of stabilisation and is currently trading in a sideways range.
Support zone at $61–$62 (around ₹5,590–₹5,680).
Resistance zone at $69–$70 (around ₹6,320–₹6,420).
A sustained move above resistance would improve the medium-term outlook.
Natural gas
Opened at $3.218 (around ₹295).
Closed at $3.632 (around ₹333).
Weekly gain of nearly 28.7 percent.
The sharp rise reflects renewed short-term bullish sentiment. Prices remain volatile and range-bound.
Supply pressure seen near $4.50–$4.60 (around ₹413–₹423).
Demand tested near $3.10–$3.00 (around ₹284–₹275).
Stability requires prices to remain above $3.00 (around ₹275).
A close above $4.10–$4.20 (around ₹376–₹385) would improve trend outlook.
What shaped markets last week
Expectations around US inflation and employment data.
Interest rate outlook from global central banks.
Economic activity indicators such as PMI.
Movements in the US dollar and bond yields.
Precious metals benefited from safe-haven demand (investors moving into safer assets like gold and silver) and a weaker dollar. Energy prices remained sensitive to demand expectations, inventory data, geopolitical developments and supply-related risks.
Prepared by: Research Desk, MyEquityLab.com
(SEBI-registered research analyst, Registration no: INH000023843)
