When markets climb unusually high, concern over a correction often follows. With billions flowing into artificial intelligence companies, several analysts have begun to warn of overvaluation.
Fresh anxiety emerged in the United States after reports of loan frauds in a few regional banks and the bankruptcy of an auto components manufacturer. Two major banks that had invested heavily in the firm have recorded substantial losses. The development dragged US indices lower on Thursday and sent ripples through Asian markets this morning. Futures on Wall Street continue to trade weak, signalling a subdued start for Indian equities as well.
Meanwhile, trade negotiations between India and the US are under way in Washington. President Donald Trump’s claim that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to halt Russian oil imports caused diplomatic friction. India clarified that no such assurance was given and that no conversation had taken place that day. New Delhi is, however, in talks to import more natural gas and LPG from the US—alongside potential purchases of crude oil if prices remain low.
Adding a layer of optimism, Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are scheduled to meet in Hungary to discuss a possible resolution to the Ukraine conflict. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will also meet Trump today.
GIFT Nifty closed Thursday night at 25,601. It briefly touched 25,623 in early trade before slipping back to 25,600—an indicator that Indian markets could open lower.
European equities closed in the green on Thursday. In France, political stability returned after Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu won a vote of confidence, lifting the Paris market by 1.33%. Food and beverage stocks rallied sharply, led by Nestlé, which surged over 9% after announcing a two-year plan to cut 16,000 jobs and boost margins.
Regional banks weighed heavily on US markets. Smaller lenders such as Zions and Western Alliance fell 13% and 10% respectively, while the regional banking ETF dropped 6%.
The collapse of auto components firm First Brands triggered a 10% fall in the shares of investment bank Jefferies, which has already declined 25% this month. Jefferies reportedly has $7.15 billion in exposure to First Brands, while UBS faces potential losses of $5 billion. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s warning of “more bankruptcies to come” deepened investor anxiety.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 301.07 points (0.65%) to close at 45,952.24. The S&P 500 slipped 0.63% to 6,629.07, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.47% to 22,562.54.
US futures are currently in negative territory: Dow down 0.21%, S&P 0.30%, and Nasdaq 0.32%. Asian markets mirrored the weakness, with Japan’s Nikkei falling over 1%, South Korea’s Kospi 0.5%, and Australia’s ASX about 0.4%. Hong Kong and Chinese indices were also lower.
Despite global concerns, Indian markets continued their rally on Thursday, closing at a four-month high. Both the Nifty and the Sensex gained more than 1%, led by real estate, FMCG, and private banking stocks. Public sector banks lagged, while auto and NBFC counters added strength.
The Nifty 50 rose 261.75 points (1.03%) to 25,585.30. The Sensex climbed 862.23 points (1.04%) to 83,467.66, and Bank Nifty advanced 622.65 points (1.10%) to 57,422.55. Mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 0.46% and 0.24% respectively.
Market breadth remained positive, with 2,330 BSE stocks advancing against 1,871 declines. On the NSE, 1,812 stocks gained while 1,280 fell. Foreign investors were net buyers, purchasing equities worth ₹997 crore, while domestic funds bought ₹4,076 crore worth of shares.
With Nifty closing above 25,550, analysts expect bullish momentum to continue. Support levels are seen at 25,430 and 25,380, with resistance near 25,620–25,690.
Results from IT majors boosted sentiment. Infosys posted a 2.2% sequential rise in revenue and raised its full-year growth guidance to 2–3%, maintaining an operating margin forecast of 20–22%. The company declared a dividend of ₹23 per share.
Wipro reported a 25% increase in revenue and 6% growth in operating profit, while LTI Mindtree saw revenue up 5.6% and profit up 10.1%. Cyient Limited faced a weaker quarter, with profit down nearly 29% and margins slipping to 8.2%.
JSW Infrastructure reported a 26% rise in revenue but a marginal dip in net profit, whereas Waaree Energies shone with a 130% jump in earnings on strong solar panel sales.
Market heavyweights Reliance Industries and ICICI Bank are set to release their results today.
Gold prices have entered what traders call a “bull sprint.” The metal gained over $100 an ounce on Thursday alone, closing at $4,327.30 in spot trade, and touched $4,380 in early Asian trading before easing slightly.
In India, 22-carat gold held steady at ₹94,920 per sovereign on Thursday but is expected to rise today. Silver closed at $54.22 an ounce after touching $54.44. Platinum, palladium, and rhodium all extended gains, with platinum hitting $1,742.
Base metals traded in opposite directions amid uncertainty over trade tensions. Copper slipped 1.93% to $10,495 per tonne, while aluminium added 0.37% to $2,755. Lead and nickel rose modestly, zinc and tin eased about 1%.
Rubber gained 1% to 172.20 cents per kilo. Cocoa prices jumped over 3%, while palm oil rose 0.98%. Coffee declined slightly, and tea remained firm.
The dollar index fell half a percent to 98.34 on Thursday and dipped further to 98.26 early Friday. The euro climbed to $1.703, the pound to $1.344, and the yen strengthened to 150.25 per dollar.
The Reserve Bank of India continued dollar sales in the forex market, supporting the rupee, which closed at ₹87.82 per dollar after touching an intraday high of ₹87.71. Traders estimate the RBI has sold over $400 million in two days to stabilise the currency.
China’s yuan appreciated to 7.12 per dollar.
Oil prices resumed their decline amid fears of slowing demand and renewed trade war tensions between the US and China. OPEC’s decision to raise output added to oversupply concerns.
Brent crude fell 1.35% to $61.02 a barrel and slipped further to $60.72 in early trade. WTI was at $57.12 and Murban crude at $62.95. Natural gas fell 0.5%.
Cryptos remain under heavy selling pressure. Bitcoin, which had surged past $125,000 recently, has dropped below $108,000. Ethereum fell to $3,826 before recovering slightly, and Solana declined to $183. Analysts blame rising US–China tensions and profit-taking for the sharp correction.
