Will it be Trump? Markets focused on US poll results

 Markets rose on Tuesday as early signs from the US election pointed towards a potential victory for Donald Trump. US futures surged, the dollar strengthened, and Asian markets followed suit. However, commodities like gold and crude oil saw declines, while cryptocurrencies surged on expectations of a Trump win.

In the derivatives market, the Indian market is expected to take cues from global trends today. Despite this, concerns over potential import duties under a Trump administration could pose challenges for India's economy.

US indices posted strong gains on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones climbing 427.28 points (1.02%) to close at 42,221.88, the S&P 500 up 70.07 points (1.23%) to finish at 5,782.16, and the Nasdaq rising 259.19 points (1.43%) to end at 18,439.17. The S&P 500 is up 21% this year, buoyed by investor optimism, particularly in the housing sector and liquor imports, which are seen as benefiting from a Trump victory. According to Goldman Sachs, if Trump wins and Republicans gain a majority in Congress, the S&P 500 could rise by 3%. In contrast, if Kamala Harris wins, the market could fall by 1.5%.

Nvidia, which makes AI chips and graphic processors, became the most valuable company again, overtaking Apple for the third time this year. Its shares rose 3% on Tuesday, bringing its market value to $3.43 trillion, slightly ahead of Apple's $3.4 trillion. Microsoft's value stands at $3.1 trillion. Nvidia’s value has tripled this year, while Apple's has only risen by 17%.

Indian market

The Indian market, which had experienced a sharp slump on Monday, rebounded on Tuesday. The Sensex gained 694.32 points (0.88%) to close at 79,476.63, while the Nifty rose 217.95 points (0.91%) to end at 24,213.30. Bank stocks, finance companies, and metal producers were among the biggest gainers, with the metal index rising 2.84%. JSW Steel, Tata Steel, and Hindalco saw gains of more than 3%.

The Nifty found support at 23,800, and analysts are watching this level closely. If it fails to hold, the index could fall to 23,500. Market movements are expected to remain volatile, influenced by the unfolding US election results.

On Tuesday, foreign investors made a net sale of Rs 2,569.41 crore in the cash market, while domestic investors bought shares worth Rs 3,030.96 crore. This shows continued uncertainty in the market, with domestic investors more active amid the volatility.

Gold rise

Gold prices saw a small rise, climbing to $2,744.50 per ounce. In India, the price of gold fell by Rs 120 to Rs 58,840 per 10 grams. Silver was up at $32.62 per ounce. Crude oil prices were slightly higher, with Brent crude settling at $75.46 per barrel. However, the market is awaiting OPEC Plus’ production decisions.  

The US dollar index dropped to 103.42, but rose to 104.20 as election results began to roll in. The rupee strengthened slightly to close at Rs 84.11 against the dollar on Tuesday, although it may weaken again today.

Cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, surged following signs that Trump may win. Bitcoin rose to $71,130, while Ether reached $2,485.

Industrial metals gained, driven by expectations of new stimulus measures from China. Copper rose 0.98% to $9,597.85 per tonne, and aluminium jumped 1.66% to $2,660 per tonne. Nickel was up by 1.64%, and zinc rose 0.80%, while tin and lead saw slight declines.

Market indicators (5 November):

- Sensex: 79,476.63 (+0.88%)  
- Nifty: 24,213.30 (+0.91%)  
- Bank Nifty: 52,207.25 (+1.94%)  
- Mid-Cap 100: 56,115.45 (+0.59%)  
- Smallcap 100: 18,503.45 (+0.43%)  
- Dow Jones: 42,221.88 (+1.02%)  
- S&P 500: 5,782.16 (+1.23%)  
- Nasdaq: 18,439.17 (+1.43%)  
- Dollar (₹): ₹84.11 (down ₹0.01)  
- Gold (oz): $2,744.50 (+$7.40)  
- Gold (Pavan): ₹58,840 (down ₹120)  
- Crude (Brent): $75.46 (+$0.33)