Global markets are on edge as they await critical economic cues. In India, attention is firmly on the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy meeting, while the US is focused on its latest jobs data due Friday.
The RBI will most probably cut the repo rate for a third consecutive time. The only debate is whether the central bank will reduce rates by 25 basis points or take a bolder step with a 40 or even 50 basis point cut. With growth subdued and inflation cooling, RBI governor S. Malhotra could be inclined to make an aggressive move. A deeper cut could spark a strong rally in Indian equities.
In the US, a slowdown in non-farm payroll growth seems certain—Friday’s release will reveal just how sharp the deceleration is.
A 90-minute call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping has rekindled hopes of a fresh round of trade talks between the two nations. However, markets seemed more engrossed in the public spat between Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk, which has taken a personal and political turn.
The leaders failed to reach any new agreement on key issues like rare earth exports, but confirmed talks would resume.
European markets closed modestly higher on Thursday, with the exception of France’s CAC index. The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points, its eighth cut in a row, bringing the benchmark rate to 2 percent. The move lifted bond prices.
In contrast, US markets ended in the red. The Dow Jones fell 108 points (0.25 percent) to close at 42,319.74, the S&P 100 dropped 31.51 points (0.53 percent), and the Nasdaq Composite slid 162.04 points (0.83 percent) to 19,298.45.
US futures are currently mixed, with the Dow up 0.24 percent, the S&P 500 up 0.13 percent, and the Nasdaq down 0.03 percent.
Asian markets opened in the green. Japan’s Nikkei index rose 0.35 percent, and both Hong Kong and mainland Chinese indices began the day positively.
After a choppy start, Indian markets ended higher on Thursday, although well below their intraday highs.
A US trade delegation is in India to discuss a possible bilateral agreement. India is seeking relief from the 10 percent universal tariff imposed on all countries—particularly for labour-intensive exports like garments, leather, footwear and jewellery. India is open to a phased exemption if an immediate resolution is not feasible.
Cochin Shipyard surged 13.2 percent on Thursday, extending its one-month gain to 60 percent. It closed at ₹2,362.10. Garden Reach and Mazagon Dock saw marginal gains.
After strong rallies in recent sessions, fertiliser stocks corrected. FCI shares jumped 7 percent intraday but closed 1.3 percent lower. Railway stocks also fell after their recent run-up.
Banks were relatively weak. Bank Nifty rose 0.15 percent, but the public sector bank index fell 0.58 percent, and the private bank index slipped 0.10 percent. In contrast, realty, pharma and healthcare stocks outperformed.
Reliance Infrastructure, which had rallied 150 percent over the past year, dropped nearly 5 percent amid profit-taking. The firm recently secured an order to produce 155 mm shells for the Indian Army, with export plans underway.
Brokerages upgraded Reliance Industries with raised target prices, citing an expected sharp increase in profitability over the next couple of years.
The Nifty gained 130.70 points (0.53 percent) to close at 24,750.90, while the Sensex rose 443.79 points (0.55 percent) to end at 81,442.04. Bank Nifty added 84.00 points (0.15 percent) to 55,760.85. The mid cap 100 index climbed 378.35 points (0.65 percent) to 58,303.00, and the small cap 100 index surged 175.50 points (0.96 percent) to 18,432.60.
On the BSE, 2,257 stocks advanced while 1,725 declined. On the NSE, 1,738 gained and 1,144 fell.
On the NSE, 72 stocks touched 52-week highs, while 21 hit new lows. A total of 126 stocks hit upper circuits and 43 hit lower circuits.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the cash market, offloading ₹208.47 crore worth of shares. Domestic institutions bought shares worth ₹2,382.40 crore.
Nifty continues to hold firm above the key 24,500 support level. Resistance is expected near 24,900, with support around 24,650 and 24,580. Upside resistance could be seen at 24,870 and 24,930.
Gold climbed to $3,404 per ounce on Thursday amid a weak dollar, trade war fears, and geopolitical tension, before settling at $3,353.80 in late trade. On Friday morning, it edged up to $3,369. The upcoming US jobs report will be a key trigger for short-term price movement.
In Kerala, gold rose ₹320 per sovereign to ₹73,040 on Thursday.
In the global commodity market, rubber declined 0.62 percent to 160 cents per kg. Cocoa prices jumped 3.09 percent to $10,107.73 per tonne. Coffee rose 3.58 percent, while tea slipped marginally.
The dollar resumed its downward move, with the dollar index closing at 98.74. In early trade today, it was slightly lower at 98.70.
In the currency market, the dollar weakened further. The euro climbed to $1.1445, and the pound rose to $1.3576. The Japanese yen strengthened, with the dollar slipping to 143.70 yen.
Yields on 10-year US Treasury notes edged up to 4.387 percent.
The dollar’s weakness supported the Indian rupee. On Thursday, the rupee closed at 85.79 per dollar, up 11 paise from the previous close. The Chinese yuan appreciated to 7.18 per dollar.
Cryptocurrencies took another hit. The ongoing spat between President Trump and Elon Musk is rattling the crypto market. Bitcoin fell to as low as $1,01,000 before rebounding to $1,02,000. Ether declined to $2,420. Several other cryptocurrencies dropped by as much as 10 percent.
The crypto sell-off comes amid intensifying tensions between Elon Musk and Donald Trump. Musk, who recently stepped down as head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DoGE), has been opposing Trump’s proposed tax bill rollback. Trump, in response, lashed out saying Musk is “ungrateful” and “erratic”.
Trump allegedly threatened to cancel federal contracts awarded to Musk’s companies. “Despite helping him a lot, he shows no gratitude,” Trump posted on Truth Social.
Musk hit back, claiming Trump had travelled multiple times on Jeffrey Epstein’s plane and had concealed related case files. Trump has not responded to the allegations.
Tesla shares plunged more than 14 percent on Thursday, wiping out $15.2 billion in market capitalisation. The company’s valuation fell below $1 trillion. Tesla stock is now down 25 percent since January 1.
Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group also dropped 7 percent.
