Global markets are moving towards a relief rally as tensions in the Middle East show signs of easing and crude oil prices retreat from recent highs.
Although the Iran conflict continues, the intensity of hostilities has moderated. Missile attacks from Iran have declined significantly, prompting Israel to ease restrictions that had kept civilians indoors. At the same time, Iran warned that it could target Israel’s Dimona nuclear facility, signalling that the confrontation is far from over.
A new development in the conflict came as Kurdish forces from Iraq reportedly crossed into Iran and launched attacks. The US had been trying to bring Kurdish forces into the conflict, and the incursion comes at a time when Iran’s aerial attacks appear to be reducing.
Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US could raise tariffs to 15 percent as early as this week.
In derivatives trading at GIFT City, Gift Nifty climbed to 24,705.50 on Wednesday night and rose further to 24,785 in early trade today before easing slightly. The trend indicates Indian markets could open with solid gains.
In the ADR market in New York, Infosys rose 0.77 percent on Wednesday and added another 0.63 percent in after-hours trade. Wipro remained flat during regular trading but gained 0.45 percent later.
US equities recovered strongly on Wednesday after opening lower, ending the session with gains as investors bet the conflict may not drag on for long and that the oil market may avoid a prolonged disruption. Reports suggesting the possibility of an alternative political arrangement emerging in Iran also helped calm investors.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 238.14 points (0.49 percent) to close at 48,739.41. The S&P 500 gained 52.87 points (0.78 percent) to 6,869.50, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 290.79 points (1.29 percent) to finish at 22,807.48.
US futures edged lower this morning, with Dow futures down 0.19 percent, S&P futures down 0.07 percent and Nasdaq futures down 0.08 percent.
European markets also rallied sharply on Wednesday. Even after President Donald Trump threatened trade restrictions against Spain for refusing to allow US bases to be used in the conflict, Spain’s benchmark index still surged by around 2.5 percent.
Asian markets are rebounding strongly today after steep losses earlier.
Japan’s Nikkei 225, which had fallen nearly 3 percent yesterday, jumped about 4.5 percent in early trade. South Korea’s KOSPI, which had plunged 13 percent previously, opened nearly 12 percent higher today.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose about 1.3 percent, while Chinese markets opened roughly 0.5 percent higher.
China also announced a growth target of 4.5–5.0 percent for the next fiscal year — the lowest target since 1991 — while increasing defence spending by 7 percent.
After a one-day holiday, Indian markets saw heavy selling on Wednesday amid fears that a prolonged war could seriously disrupt India’s economy.
The BSE Sensex plunged to 78,443 intraday and the Nifty 50 dropped to 24,305 before recovering partially.
Sensex closed down 1,122.66 points (1.40 percent) at 79,116.19. Nifty fell 385.20 points (1.55 percent) to 24,480.50.
The Nifty Bank declined 1,084.40 points (1.81 percent) to 58,755.25.
Broader markets were hit harder. The Nifty Midcap 100 dropped 2.16 percent to 56,925.15 and the Nifty Smallcap 100 fell 2.11 percent to 16,281.50.
Market breadth was sharply negative. On the BSE, 1,025 stocks advanced while 3,295 declined. On the NSE, 663 stocks rose and 2,561 fell.
Foreign investors were aggressive sellers, with foreign funds offloading ₹8,752.65 crore in the cash market. Domestic institutions absorbed much of the selling, purchasing a net ₹12,068.17 crore worth of shares.
Gold resumed its upward trend after a brief dip earlier in the week.
Prices climbed to $5,207 per ounce on Wednesday before settling 1 percent higher at $5,142.20. This morning, gold rose another 0.75 percent to around $5,180.
Silver touched $86.92 before ending 1.84 percent higher at $83.68 per ounce and later moved up to $84.80.
Platinum is trading around $2,195, palladium at $1,667 and rhodium at $11,100.
In Kerala, the price of 22-carat gold dropped ₹2,280 to ₹1,20,640 per sovereign.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange, 24-carat gold had climbed to ₹1,64,047 per 10 grams before closing lower at ₹1,61,550. Silver rose to ₹2,76,516 before ending at ₹2,66,156.
Industrial metals mostly moved higher despite geopolitical concerns.
Copper rose 1.09 percent to $12,959.15 per tonne, while aluminium surged 2.70 percent to $3,345.20 per tonne amid disruptions to aluminium exports from Bahrain due to the conflict.
Tin, nickel and lead also advanced, while zinc slipped.
Natural rubber continued to decline in international markets, falling 2.26 percent to 198.70 cents per kg amid concerns about a global economic slowdown. Synthetic rubber prices slipped marginally.
Cocoa rose slightly to close at $3,025 per tonne. Tea prices were unchanged, while coffee gained 0.95 percent.
Palm oil climbed to 4,198 Malaysian ringgit per tonne.
Prices of petrochemical products such as PVC, polyethylene and polypropylene rose by up to 4 percent due to higher crude oil prices. Urea prices fell 2.63 percent.
The US Dollar Index slipped to 98.77 on Wednesday before edging up slightly to 98.80 this morning.
The euro rose to $1.1642 and the pound strengthened to $1.3381. The Japanese yen appreciated to 156.75 per dollar, while the Chinese yuan held steady around 6.90 per dollar.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury rose to 4.10 percent amid weaker demand for government bonds.
The Indian rupee weakened sharply on Wednesday, opening above the 92 mark and closing at 92.15 per dollar, down 68 paise (0.70 percent). The currency briefly slipped to 92.30 before the Reserve Bank of India intervened in the market.
In the offshore non-deliverable forward (NDF) market, the rupee was trading around 92.14 this morning.
The Chinese yuan strengthened to ₹13.36, while the euro rose to ₹107.28. These movements could influence currency trading in India today.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has not yet fully resumed.
Brent crude climbed to $84 per barrel on Wednesday before settling at $82.55. It briefly rose to $83.52 this morning before easing again.
WTI crude was trading around $76.75, while Abu Dhabi’s Murban crude stood near $82.21.
Natural gas prices slipped to $2.963.
Cryptocurrencies surged after President Donald Trump publicly backed legislation supporting stablecoins.
The bill under consideration in the US Congress would recognise stablecoins such as Tether and USD Coin and could allow them to offer interest-like returns on holdings. Banks are opposing the proposal, fearing deposits could shift from traditional banking to digital assets.
Trump’s family is known to have financial interests in the cryptocurrency sector.
Major cryptocurrencies jumped more than 10 percent. Bitcoin was trading below $72,900 this morning, while Ethereum stood above $2,120 and Solana traded above $90.
(March 4, 2026)
Sensex: 79,116.19 (-1.40%)
Nifty 50: 24,480.50 (-1.55%)
Bank Nifty: 58,755.25 (-1.81%)
Midcap 100: 56,925.15 (-2.16%)
Smallcap 100: 16,281.50 (-2.11%)
Dow Jones: 48,739.41 (+0.49%)
S&P 500: 6,869.50 (+0.78%)
Nasdaq: 22,807.48 (+1.29%)
Dollar: ₹92.15 (+₹0.68)
Gold (ounce): $5,142.20 (+$52.50)
Gold (sovereign): ₹1,20,640 (-₹2,280)
Brent crude: $82.55 (+$1.15)
