Media reports suggest that India–US trade talks are likely to result in an interim agreement that may not fully meet India’s expectations. The proposed deal is not seen to align with India’s market hopes and could weigh on investor sentiment today.
While European and US markets posted gains overnight, Asian markets were mixed this morning. US futures traded slightly higher.
According to government sources, India is likely to agree to a dual-tariff structure under the deal with the US. Products such as garments, leather goods including footwear, and gem and gold jewellery—which are labour-intensive—may attract a 10 percent tariff, while other items could face a 15 percent duty. This would still be significantly lower than the tariffs currently levied on Vietnam (20 percent) and Indonesia (19 percent).
Reports also suggest that India has proposed further talks on dairy products and genetically modified agricultural goods as part of a broader agreement. India may agree to import grains certified as non-GMO, as well as grains for animal feed. However, there is no clarity on tariff levels for US goods in these reports.
The Indian government believes that such a compromise deal is the best outcome possible under the current global trade environment. There are concerns that holding out could result in missing even these concessions.
In the derivatives market, Gift Nifty closed at 25,216 on Thursday night and opened lower at 25,184 before recovering slightly, indicating a flat to mildly positive start for today’s session.
European markets rebounded strongly on Thursday after four consecutive days of losses, driven by better-than-expected corporate earnings. Swiss pharma giant Novartis posted a 26 percent rise in net profit and set aside $10 billion for a share buyback.
US markets ended higher after initial volatility. President Trump reiterated that Fed chair Jerome Powell would not be dismissed, while strong corporate results and upbeat economic data supported sentiment. Jobless claims declined, and retail sales rose 0.6 percent against an expected 0.2 percent growth. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed at record highs, with PepsiCo and United Airlines beating expectations. Netflix reported better-than-expected profits but missed on revenue, sending its stock lower.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 229.71 points (0.52 percent) to close at 44,484.49. The S&P 500 gained 33.66 points (0.54 percent) to finish at 6,297.36, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 155.16 points (0.75 percent) to close at 20,885.65.
US futures edged up slightly this morning—Dow by 0.14 percent, S&P by 0.10 percent, and Nasdaq by 0.08 percent.
Asian markets opened mixed today. Japan and South Korea declined, while Australia touched a record high. Hong Kong and Chinese markets began higher.
After gaining for two sessions, Indian markets ended lower yesterday amid a lack of positive triggers. Weak earnings, particularly in the IT sector, and concerns that India’s interests may not be adequately protected in the proposed US trade deal weighed on sentiment. A weaker rupee and weekly F&O expiry also added to the pressure.
Of the 97 companies that have announced Q1 results so far, average revenue growth fell to 4.8 percent from 8.3 percent, while net profit growth dropped sharply from 17.3 percent to 2.7 percent.
Analysts expect the IT sector to remain weak for the next one or two quarters, dragging the sector index down by 1.39 percent on Thursday. Defence and PSU banking stocks also declined, while realty and metal stocks advanced.
Foreign investors continued to sell in the cash segment. FIIs are reportedly shifting towards China amid expectations that President Trump may meet Chinese President Xi Jinping later this year.
Despite a positive opening, Indian markets fell during the day, with a late recovery lifting indices only slightly from their intraday lows.
The Nifty closed 100.60 points (0.40 percent) lower at 25,111.45. The Sensex shed 375.24 points (0.45 percent) to close at 82,259.24, while the Bank Nifty dropped 340.15 points (0.59 percent) to 56,828.80. The Nifty Midcap 100 fell 101.55 points (0.17 percent) to 59,519.10, and the Smallcap 100 declined 22.75 points (0.12 percent) to close at 19,117.30.
The advance-decline ratio turned negative. On the BSE, 1,957 stocks advanced while 2,085 declined. On the NSE, 1,432 stocks gained and 1,502 fell.
On the NSE, 70 stocks hit 52-week highs while 19 touched new lows. 89 stocks hit upper circuits and 40 were locked in lower circuits.
FIIs sold shares worth ₹3,694.31 crore on Thursday, while domestic funds bought stocks worth ₹2,820.77 crore.
Nifty’s close above 25,100 is the only comforting factor for investors. The market is expected to remain in consolidation with minor ups and downs.
Nifty is likely to find support at 25,100 and 25,015, with resistance around 25,200 and 25,290.
SBI launched a ₹25,000 crore mega QIP, receiving offers worth over ₹1 lakh crore on the first day. The floor price is ₹811.05 per share.
Axis Bank’s net profit declined 4 percent in Q1 due to a rise in stressed assets. Fresh slippages amounted to ₹2,709 crore, and provisioning rose to ₹3,948 crore. Gross NPA ratio stood at 1.57 percent and net NPA at 0.45 percent.
Wipro reported a 2.3 percent decline in Q1 revenue and a 10 percent increase in net profit. However, margins fell to 17.3 percent. Growth is expected to remain muted next quarter.
L&T Mindtree posted a 4.4 percent rise in constant currency revenue.
Higher interest income boosted Jio Financial's net profit by 4 percent.
Gold prices continued to fluctuate, moving between $3,309 and $3,347 per ounce before closing at $3,340.30. This morning, gold rose to $3,342 per ounce.
In Kerala, the gold price rose ₹40 per sovereign to ₹72,840 on Thursday. Silver climbed to $38.02 per ounce.
In the global rubber market, prices rose 0.72 percent to 167.30 cents per kg. Cocoa fell 3.80 percent to $7,349 per tonne. Coffee and tea prices also declined. Palm oil rose 1.90 percent.
The US Dollar Index closed higher at 98.73 on Thursday but eased to 98.45 this morning.
In the forex market, the euro fell to $1.1622, the pound to $1.3429, and the yen to 148.53 per dollar. US 10-year Treasury prices rose, pushing yields down to 4.447 percent.
The rupee weakened despite RBI intervention, ending 14 paise lower at 86.08 per dollar on Thursday. It opened at 85.93 on Friday. Though the dollar breached 86 intraday in recent sessions, it has closed below that level so far. China’s yuan held steady at 7.18 per dollar.
Crude oil prices climbed again amid escalating tensions in West Asia. The US is reportedly mediating in the Israel–Syria conflict. Brent rose to $69.59, WTI to $67.62, and Murban crude to $70.85 per barrel. Natural gas prices edged lower.
Cryptocurrencies surged, with Bitcoin climbing to ₹1,20,500 and Ether rising to $3,600.
