Breaking away from global cues, the Indian stock market continues its upward momentum. In contrast, trade tensions and fresh moves by President Trump against Fed chair Jerome Powell triggered a sharp sell-off in the US. Asian markets are also trading lower today. The dollar has fallen to a three-year low, with further weakness expected. Gold and the Swiss franc are currently the best-performing assets.
In the derivatives market, Gift Nifty closed at 24,075 on Monday night and briefly rose to 24,100 before slipping back, indicating a soft opening for Nifty this morning.
The IMF’s updated global growth outlook is expected today. It will be the first major forecast after the onset of the trade war. IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva has already warned of a substantial downgrade in global growth.
The US market ended Monday on a steep decline. President Trump again mocked Fed chair Jerome Powell and called for an immediate rate cut. Experts warned that any move undermining the Fed’s autonomy could severely damage the markets and prompt an investor exodus from US assets.
Tesla, which is set to release its results today, fell 6% on Monday, taking its year-to-date loss to 40%. Nvidia slipped 4.5% amid export curbs and is down 30% so far this year.
The Dow Jones plunged 971.82 points (2.48%) to close at 38,170.41. The S&P 500 lost 124.50 points (2.36%) to end at 5,158.20, while the Nasdaq shed 415.55 points (2.55%) to finish at 15,870.90.
US futures are slightly higher this morning, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq up 0.33%, 0.39%, and 0.38% respectively.
Asian markets are trading lower today. Japan’s Nikkei is down 0.25%, South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.5%, and the Hang Seng is also in the red.
India’s markets are charting their own course, with the Sensex jumping 4,218.83 points (5.61%) and the Nifty soaring 1,363.75 points (5.99%) in just five sessions. The Bank Nifty has surged 9.22% over the same period, breaching the 55,000 mark.
The rally has been fuelled by a return of foreign investors, who pumped ₹16,640 crore into the cash market over four days. However, most observers are reluctant to call this a shift in policy stance.
On Monday, the Nifty gained 273.90 points (1.15%) to close at 24,125.55, while the Sensex climbed 855.30 points (1.09%) to 79,408.50. The Bank Nifty rose 1,014.30 points (1.87%) to 55,304.50. The midcap index jumped 2.50% (1,316.65 points) to 53,974.45, and the small cap index rose 2.21% to close at 16,773.35.
All sectors advanced except FMCG. The IT index, which had lagged in recent sessions, rebounded 2.29%. PSU banks, private banks, auto, metal, realty, and oil & gas stocks all gained over 2%.
Market breadth remained strong. On the BSE, 2,903 stocks advanced while 1,199 declined. On the NSE, 2,251 stocks closed higher and 683 fell.
As many as 93 NSE stocks hit 52-week highs, while 16 touched 52-week lows. A total of 166 stocks hit upper circuits, while 54 were locked in lower circuits.
Foreign investors were net buyers again on Monday, with net purchases of ₹1,970.17 crore. Domestic institutions bought shares worth ₹246.89 crore.
The market ended on a bullish note. However, consolidation around the 24,000 level is likely. Nifty is expected to find support at 23,960 and 23,895, while facing resistance at 24,185 and 24,250.
Fourth-quarter results are expected today from HCL Technologies, Mahindra & Mahindra Finance, Havells India, AU Small Finance Bank, Tata Communications, Varroc Engineering, Vardhman Special Steels, and Delta Corp.
Gold is defying the very definition of a “record high” as it continues its remarkable rally, fuelled by dollar weakness and investor rush away from US assets. Analysts now believe it could cross $4,000 per ounce.
On Monday, gold rose more than 3%—the third time in April it has gained over 3% in a day. The last such streak was during the 2008 financial crisis and briefly again in 2016. But the current pace—a 28% surge in under four months after two years of consistent gains—is highly unusual.
Gold closed at $3,425.40 per ounce on Monday after jumping $96.40. This morning, it touched $3,438 before dipping slightly to $3,430. In Kerala, gold rose ₹560 on Monday to ₹72,120 per sovereign. Prices are expected to rise further today.
Silver climbed to $32.70 this morning. Copper rose 2.72% on Monday to $9,352 per tonne. On the international market, rubber gained 1.02% to 169.10 cents per kg. Cocoa soared 4.89% to $8,747.05, while coffee fell 2.63% and palm oil dropped 1.61%.
The dollar index declined again, closing Monday at 98.28. It rose slightly to 98.55 this morning. The euro is trading at $1.149, slightly lower. The pound is at $1.337, and the yen has weakened to 141.05 per dollar. US bond prices edged up this morning, pushing yields down to 4.405%.
Crude oil prices fell on reports of progress in Iran–US nuclear talks but rebounded this morning. Brent crude closed $1.50 lower at $66.50 on Monday and rose to $66.77 this morning. WTI rose to $63.59 and UAE’s Murban crude climbed to $68.40.
Cryptocurrencies were choppy again. Bitcoin rebounded above $87,300 on Monday after wild swings. Ether fell to $1,575.
