Global trade worries continued to weigh on investors. Indian markets opened Wednesday under pressure, as US President Donald Trump warned that Indian goods may attract tariffs of 20 or even 25 percent starting August 1. Although US–China trade talks in Stockholm concluded with an agreement to extend the current arrangement by 90 days from August 12, uncertainty persists until Trump makes a final decision.
India–US trade negotiations are now set to resume on August 25. Trump had previously warned of imposing 26 percent duties if no deal is reached by this Friday. On Tuesday, he stated that he alone would decide the tariff rate. Pressure continues from the US for greater access to Indian agricultural and dairy markets, and for tariff concessions on US goods—issues that remain politically and economically sensitive for India. Imposing tariffs of 20 percent or more would also weaken India’s position compared to other trading nations.
Earlier, both the US and China had agreed to maintain existing tariff rates of 30 percent on Chinese goods and 10 percent on US products. That arrangement is expected to continue, pending Trump’s approval.
The US Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision later today. No change in rates is anticipated.
Trump’s significant rollback of earlier tariffs announced in early April contributed to an improvement in global growth expectations, with the IMF subsequently raising its forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 3 percent for the year. India’s GDP growth projection was also raised to 6.4 percent for this year, with the same forecast for 2026.
In the derivatives market, Gift Nifty closed at 24,800 on Tuesday night and dipped slightly to 24,795 on Wednesday morning before rebounding. The trend suggests Indian markets may open in the red.
European markets ended higher on Tuesday, aided by optimism around the US–EU trade deal. A lower-than-expected tariff impact lifted consumer healthcare firm Philips by 10.7 percent after it raised its revenue and profit outlooks.
In contrast, US markets declined on Tuesday amid disappointment over the lack of concrete progress in US–China talks and concerns about the Fed’s upcoming stance.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq retreated after marking their 16th and 17th record highs of the year, respectively. Despite strong revenue growth, Boeing shares fell over 4 percent. Procter & Gamble, which appointed an Indian-origin CEO, closed marginally lower.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 204.57 points (0.46 percent) to close at 44,632.99. The S&P 500 lost 18.91 points (0.30 percent) to end at 6,370.86, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 80.29 points (0.38 percent) to 21,098.29.
US futures were marginally higher early Wednesday. The Dow rose 0.06 percent, the S&P 500 by 0.09 percent, and the Nasdaq by 0.13 percent.
Asian markets were mixed. The US–China trade negotiations remain the key focus. Japan’s Nikkei was down 0.25 percent in early trade, while South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.5 percent. Hong Kong and Chinese markets were also trading lower.
After three consecutive sessions of losses, Indian markets staged a mild recovery on Tuesday. However, the gains were not strong enough to confirm a trend reversal. The rally was led by Reliance (up 2.09 percent), Jio Financial (4.77 percent), Asian Paints (1.97 percent), L&T (1.92 percent), Airtel (1.24 percent), Tata Steel (1.59 percent), and Tata Motors (1.30 percent). Mid cap and small cap stocks also gained, with mid cap IT stocks outperforming large caps. Realty, pharma, and healthcare sectors posted strong gains.
The Nifty 50 rose 140.20 points (0.57 percent) to close at 24,821.10. The Sensex gained 446.93 points (0.55 percent) to end at 81,337.95. Bank Nifty climbed 137.10 points (0.24 percent) to settle at 56,222.00. The Nifty Midcap 100 index rose 465.50 points (0.81 percent) to 57,984.85, while the Smallcap 100 index advanced 186.70 points (1.03 percent) to 18,251.45.
The advance–decline ratio on BSE turned favourable after several days. On Tuesday, 2,427 stocks advanced while 1,587 declined. On NSE, 1,932 stocks closed higher and 1,025 declined.
On the NSE, 50 stocks hit 52-week highs, while 56 touched lows. As many as 77 stocks hit upper circuits, and 71 hit lower circuits.
Foreign institutional investors were net sellers in the cash market on Tuesday, offloading ₹4,636.60 crore worth of shares. Domestic institutional investors bought equities worth ₹6,146.82 crore.
Several IPOs, including that of NSDL, are currently open or set to hit the markets.
Nifty’s support has now shifted higher to the 24,700–24,550 range. Key support levels for Wednesday are 24,660 and 24,505. Resistance is likely at 24,855 and 25,000.
Jio Financial Services’ board will meet today to decide on raising ₹10,000 crore in capital. There are indications that the Ambani family’s stake in the company will rise from 47 percent to 51 percent via a preferential allotment. The new shares are expected to be priced in the ₹318–₹325 range. On Tuesday, the stock closed at ₹321. The firm is expanding its presence in insurance and mutual fund segments, with existing partnerships with Germany’s Allianz and BlackRock, respectively.
Tilaknagar Industries plans to raise ₹2,296 crore through preferential shares and warrants to fund its acquisition of the Imperial Blue whisky brand from Pernod Ricard. Chairman and MD Amit Dhanuka will invest ₹306 crore.
GMR Airports reported a 33.4 percent rise in revenue in Q1, though its net loss widened by 50 percent to ₹212 crore. Its operating margin improved to 45.4 percent.
Larsen & Toubro posted a 15.5 percent rise in Q1 revenue and 29.9 percent jump in net profit, with overseas markets contributing 52 percent to total revenue.
NTPC’s results fell short of expectations. Revenue declined 4.2 percent year-on-year. Though net profit rose 5.85 percent, it missed analyst estimates.
Star Health and Allied Insurance reported a 17.7 percent drop in net profit, primarily due to a 49 percent decline in underwriting profits.
After falling on the back of the US–EU trade deal, gold prices edged higher on Tuesday. It gained $11.40 to close at $3,327.30 per ounce, before easing slightly to $3,325.90 on Wednesday morning.
In Kerala, gold prices dropped ₹80 on Tuesday to ₹73,200 per sovereign. Silver closed Tuesday at $38.12 per ounce.
In global commodity markets, rubber fell 3.13 percent to 170.30 cents per kilogram. Cocoa dropped 2.05 percent to $8,343 per tonne, and coffee fell 1.42 percent. Tea prices rose 1.84 percent, while palm oil declined by 1.25 percent.
The US Dollar Index gained nearly one percent on Tuesday, peaking at 99.14 before closing at 98.89. It eased slightly to 98.77 in early Wednesday trade.
In the currency markets, the euro slipped to $1.155, the pound to $1.335, and the yen to 148.49 per dollar. US 10-year Treasury yields declined to 4.324 percent.
The rupee weakened further, ending Tuesday at 86.82 against the dollar—its lowest level in four months. If no trade deal materialises, the rupee could fall to record lows. The Chinese yuan remained steady at 7.18 per dollar.
Crude oil rallied on Tuesday amid hopes of easing trade tensions and reports that the US has given Russia a 10-day ceasefire ultimatum in Ukraine. Brent crude rose 4.5 percent to close at $72.51 per barrel. On Wednesday morning, Brent was trading at $72.65, WTI at $69.21, and Murban at $75.25. Natural gas prices rose 3 percent.
Cryptocurrencies were volatile. Bitcoin fell below $117,900, while Ether stood at $3,790.
