Concerns over India’s economic growth persist, with several indicators showing a slowdown. Industrial production growth has been weak for two consecutive months. June GST collection showed a modest rise. Auto sales declined for the second straight month, diesel consumption rose marginally, and although UPI usage increased, the transaction value fell. If this trend continues, corporate earnings and profitability may weaken—putting pressure on stock valuations.
Hopes remain for an interim trade agreement between India and the United States that could lift the 26 percent countervailing duty on Indian exports—potentially fuelling further market gains. However, any adverse outcome could trigger a downturn.
While US tech stocks saw a broad decline overnight, Indian IT ADRs closed higher.
In the derivatives market, Gift Nifty closed at 25,677 on Wednesday night, climbing to 25,700 in early Thursday trading before slipping again. This signals a positive start for the Indian market today.
European markets ended Wednesday in the red. In the UK, concerns over a welfare reform bill pushed bond prices up and yields lower. UK housing prices also fell. In the eurozone, inflation hit 2 percent, lifting bond prices and reducing yields. The euro rose as high as $1.825 before pulling back slightly.
The US markets were mixed on Wednesday. The Dow Jones rose 400 points, while the S&P 500 was nearly flat and the Nasdaq fell 0.82 percent. Investors appeared to pull back from tech stocks, which had driven the April–June rally. The Technology Select SPDR Fund, up 23 percent last quarter, declined 0.9 percent. Shares of Nvidia and Microsoft saw heavy selling, while healthcare and pharmaceutical stocks gained, boosting the Dow.
The running feud between Tesla CEO Elon Musk and US President Donald Trump escalated again—this time over Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill. While Trump has hailed it as the “big, beautiful bill”, Musk described it as a “disastrous lunatic bill”, pledging to form a new political party and fight its passage.
Musk has vowed to oppose the bill tooth and nail. In response, Trump has ordered a review of all federal subsidies given to Musk’s companies, threatening to cancel them. “He’ll have to leave the country if we pull the subsidies,” Trump reportedly said mockingly. Tesla shares plunged over 7 percent.
Trump also continued his attacks on Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, blaming him for inflicting “massive economic damage” and accusing him, in a handwritten note, of failing to cut interest rates. Powell, meanwhile, told a central bankers’ gathering that the scale of Trump’s tariff proposals left no room for rate cuts.
Trump’s tax bill passed the Senate on Wednesday with a tie-breaking vote by Vice-President JD Vance. Three Republican senators voted against it. The bill must now pass the House, where opposition is stronger. The legislation seeks to make Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent and proposes removing over 35 million people from the Medicaid health insurance programme. If enacted, it is expected to increase the US national debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 400.17 points (0.91 percent) to close at 44,494.94. The S&P 500 slipped 6.94 points (0.11 percent) to 6,198.01. The Nasdaq Composite fell 106.85 points (0.82 percent) to close at 20,202.89.
US futures edged up slightly today: Dow up 0.02 percent, S&P up 0.03 percent, and Nasdaq up 0.05 percent.
Amazon chair Jeff Bezos sold 3.3 million company shares last month, raising $7.37 billion. The sale is part of a previously approved plan to offload up to 25 million shares by March next year, largely to fund his space venture, Blue Origin. Bezos recently made headlines for marrying his partner in a lavish ceremony in Venice, Italy.
Asian markets were in the red this morning. Japan’s Nikkei dropped 0.75 percent, South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.45 percent, and Chinese markets opened lower. However, the Hong Kong market edged up.
Indian markets closed marginally higher on Wednesday after range-bound trade. The Nifty hovered between 25,501 and 25,593. Gains in heavyweights like Reliance and HDFC Bank helped the index end in positive territory.
Trade talks in Washington are progressing toward a temporary deal, with contentious issues deferred for future rounds. India is seeking relief from the 26 percent countervailing duty. The Indian delegation, initially scheduled to return last Sunday, has extended its stay. A decision is expected before next Wednesday. If the duty is lifted, a strong rally may follow. Otherwise, a downturn is likely.
On Wednesday, the Nifty rose 24.75 points (0.10 percent) to 25,541.80. The Sensex added 90.83 points (0.11 percent) to 83,697.29. Bank Nifty gained 146.70 points (0.26 percent) to close at 57,459.45. The Nifty Midcap 100 rose 8.85 points (0.01 percent) to 59,750.05, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 fell 19.40 points (0.10 percent) to 19,055.17.
The advance-decline ratio on the BSE turned negative, with 1,941 stocks rising and 2,077 falling. On the NSE, 1,488 stocks advanced while 1,449 declined. On the NSE, 96 stocks hit 52-week highs, while 24 reached 52-week lows. As many as 119 stocks hit the upper circuit, and 43 touched the lower circuit.
Foreign investors remained net sellers, offloading shares worth ₹1,970.14 crore. Domestic funds bought equities worth ₹771.08 crore.
Markets are expected to remain in consolidation mode today. A move past 25,700 could pave the way for 26,000. On the downside, 25,300 is seen as strong support. For today, support for the Nifty is at 25,510 and 25,455; resistance is expected at 25,575 and 25,635.
Gold prices rose again on weakening dollar. After touching $3,356 per ounce, it closed at $3,338.89 and climbed again this morning to $3,340. In Kerala, gold gained ₹840 on Wednesday to reach ₹72,160 per sovereign. Silver traded at $36.03 per ounce.
In global commodity markets, rubber rose 0.56 percent to $1.6250 per kg. Cocoa fell 4.58 percent to $8,741.32 per tonne. Coffee declined 2.85 percent, and tea dropped 4.43 percent. Palm oil rose 0.50 percent.
The dollar index closed at 96.82 and fell to 96.62 in early Thursday trade. The euro rose to $1.1808 and the pound to $1.375. The Japanese yen strengthened to 143.49 per dollar. Yields on US 10-year Treasuries rose to 4.244 percent as prices dipped slightly.
The rupee appreciated, ending 26 paise stronger at 85.52 per dollar. China’s yuan fell to 7.17 per dollar.
Crude oil prices moved within a narrow range. Brent was trading at $67.11 this morning. WTI stood at $65.39, and Murban crude at $68.48. Natural gas fell 1.2 percent.
Cryptocurrencies continued to weaken. Bitcoin dropped to $105,500 and Ether slipped below $2,400.
