The US treasury secretary’s statement that India and the United States are in the final stages of a trade agreement—and that it could be among the first bilateral deals under the current US administration—helped lift Indian markets on Friday. The market expects the deal will not impose heavy obligations on India. There’s also a sense that mounting criticism and market backlash may have forced President Donald Trump to soften his tariff stance.
The belief that the India-Pakistan conflict will not escalate into a full-scale war is also supporting sentiment.
Although China has stated that trade talks with the US are not currently underway, a comment from Trump hinted that informal conversations may be progressing. This raises hopes of an early end to the US-China trade war.
Market observers expect Indian indices to regain upward momentum today. In derivatives, Gift Nifty closed at 24,517.5 on Thursday night and climbed to 24,545 this morning, indicating a strong opening for Nifty.
European markets closed with minor gains on Thursday. Austria’s central bank chief Robert Holzmann suggested the European Central Bank hold off on rate cuts until there’s more clarity on trade issues.
US markets opened flat but rallied to close higher, driven by gains in technology stocks. Nvidia and Tesla were among the top performers. Deutsche Bank noted that investors are betting on a softer US stance in the trade dispute with China.
On Thursday, the Dow Jones rose 486.83 points (1.23%) to 40,093.40. The S&P 500 jumped 108.91 points (2.03%) to close at 5484.77, while the Nasdaq surged 457.99 points (2.74%) to 17,166.04.
US futures were also trading higher on Friday morning—Dow up 0.06 percent, S&P up 0.49 percent, and Nasdaq up 0.65 percent.
Asian markets posted solid gains yesterday and continued the trend today. Japan’s Nikkei climbed 1.5 percent, South Korea’s market rose over 1 percent, and Hong Kong saw a significant jump at open.
Although tensions along the border have not escalated into war, uncertainty may linger for weeks, dragging markets lower on Thursday after a seven-day rally. The Sensex, which had touched 80,174 in early trade, fell to close at 79,801.43, down 315.06 points (0.39%). The Nifty dropped 82.25 points (0.34%) to close at 24,246.70 after briefly reaching 24,348.
Banking and financial stocks closed lower, while poor Q4 results from key FMCG companies dragged their index down by 1.06 percent. Realty, IT, consumer durables, and oil & gas stocks also declined. Pharma, healthcare, metal, and media stocks gained.
Bank Nifty fell 168.65 points (0.30%) to end at 55,201.40. The Nifty Midcap 100 dipped 0.13 percent to 54,969.85, while the Smallcap 100 eased 0.04 percent to 16,963.50.
The broader market breadth was slightly negative, with 2,063 BSE stocks declining and 1,887 advancing. On the NSE, 1,441 stocks fell while 1404 gained.
In the NSE, 50 stocks hit 42-week highs, while 13 touched lows. Upper circuit breakers were triggered in 117 stocks; 39 hit the lower circuit.
Foreign investors were strong net buyers on Thursday, purchasing ₹8,250.53 crore in the cash segment. Domestic funds sold ₹534.54 crore worth of shares.
Although bullish sentiment has weakened, analysts say if the Nifty holds above 24,000, the uptrend may resume. Support is seen at 24,215 and 24,140, with resistance at 24,320 and 24,400.
Hindustan Unilever posted a 2.4 percent rise in Q4 revenue but a 3.7 percent drop in profit. Margins are expected to remain in the 22–23 percent range. The stock fell 4 percent. Nestlé saw revenue rise 4.5 percent, but profit declined by 5.2 percent.
Axis Bank reported a 5.5 percent rise in net interest income, but profit slipped 0.2 percent. Provisions rose 14.7 percent, while gross NPAs declined. Tech Mahindra’s profit surged 18.7 percent to ₹1166.7 crore, despite just a 0.7 percent increase in revenue. Margins were flat.
L&T Technology Services posted a 12.4 percent revenue gain, but profit fell 3.5 percent. Margin declined from 15.9 to 13.2 percent. The company expects double-digit growth in dollar revenue next fiscal.
Macrotech Developers’ revenue grew 5.1 percent, and profit soared 38.4 percent. Cyient’s Q4 revenue dipped 0.9 percent, but profit rose 39.3 percent to ₹170.4 crore. SBI Cards posted a 75 percent jump in revenue, but profit fell 19.4 percent. SBI Life’s premium income fell 5 percent, while profit edged up 0.3 percent. Indian Energy Exchange’s revenue rose 17.3 percent and profit 21.1 percent.
Reliance Industries, Maruti Suzuki, Force Motors, Chennai Petroleum, RBL Bank, DCB Bank, Bank of Maharashtra, Cholamandalam Investment, Poonawalla Fincorp, L&T Finance, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, Oracle Financial Software, Lal Path Labs, Lloyds Metals, and VST Industries.
Results due tomorrow: IDFC First Bank, Indiabulls Enterprises, India Cements, MRPL, Vakrangee, and Bhansali Engineering.
Gold rose again. It closed at $3350.80 per ounce on Thursday and touched $3378 this morning before slipping to $3354. Prices are expected to remain volatile.
In Kerala, gold dropped ₹80 on Thursday to ₹72,040 per sovereign but may rise today.
In international markets, rubber rose 0.24 percent to 169.20 cents/kg. Cocoa gained 1.74 percent to $9303.78. Coffee jumped 5.03 percent, and palm oil rose 0.99 percent.
The dollar index eased to 99.38 on Thursday before edging up to 99.55 this morning.
The euro rose to $1.1349. The pound slipped to $1.33. The yen appreciated to 142.98 per dollar.
US bond prices climbed again, with yields falling to 4.317 percent.
The rupee strengthened slightly on Thursday, closing at 85.26 per dollar after gaining 20 paise.
The yuan remained stable at 7.29 per dollar.
Brent crude rose to $66.80 per barrel. Cryptocurrencies remain volatile at elevated levels. Bitcoin hovered near $93,750, while Ether dropped to $1775.
