Even as the India–EU free trade agreement is set to be announced this week, no decision is expected on the India–US trade deal for now. Still, the Indian market is likely to open on a positive note today. Crude oil prices remain firm as global geopolitical tensions show no signs of easing. Peace talks on Ukraine are expected to continue on February 1.
Gold and silver are on a sharp rally. Gold climbed to $5,110 an ounce and silver to $117 before easing on profit booking. Market signals suggest further upside.
In derivatives trading at GIFT City, Gift Nifty rose to 25,207.50 in early trade before easing slightly. This indicates a strong opening for the Nifty.
The US Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy review on Thursday. With recent employment data remaining robust, Fed chair Jerome Powell and most committee members are believed to favour holding interest rates steady rather than cutting them.
India’s free trade agreement with the European Union will be announced today, with negotiations concluding yesterday. The deal is expected to be formally signed within a few months. India will reduce import duties on several EU products, including luxury cars. Talks that began in 2007 have finally reached a conclusion. Last year, India exported goods worth $75.85 billion to the EU and imported $60.68 billion. The agreement is expected to significantly boost Indian exports.
US futures traded in mixed directions this morning. Dow futures fell 0.32 percent, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were up 0.06 percent and 0.24 percent respectively.
After moving in mixed directions on Friday, US markets closed higher on Monday. All three indices gained around half a percent.
The Dow Jones rose 313.69 points (0.64 percent) to close at 49,412.40. The S&P 500 gained 34.62 points (0.50 percent) to 6,950.23, while the Nasdaq added 100.11 points (0.43 percent) to end at 23,601.36.
European markets ended Monday with modest gains.
Asian markets remained volatile in early trade. Japan’s Nikkei, after falling 0.4 percent, turned positive. Australia’s index rose one percent. The South Korean index slipped half a percent after US President Donald Trump criticised delays by the Korean parliament in approving a trade agreement and threatened to raise tariffs on Korean products to 25 percent.
Hong Kong markets opened higher. In China, questions are being raised after Zhang Youxia, vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, was caught in corruption and espionage cases. Zhang was considered the most powerful leader after President Xi.
After rising on Thursday, Indian markets slipped sharply on Friday. Following a flat-to-positive opening, indices moved lower through the session. Though losses narrowed slightly by the close, benchmark indices still ended down more than one percent at one point. Mid cap and small cap indices ended with losses exceeding two percent.
All sectoral indices closed in the red, with realty, tourism, defence and public sector banks leading the declines.
The Sensex fell 769.51 points (0.94 percent) to close at 81,537.70. The Nifty declined 241.25 points (0.95 percent) to 25,048.65. Bank Nifty dropped 727 points (1.23 percent) to 58,473.10. The Mid cap 100 index lost 1,045.65 points (1.80 percent) to 57,145.65, while the Small cap 100 index fell 324.50 points (1.95 percent) to 16,352.75.
Market breadth remained negative. On the BSE, 1,229 stocks advanced while 2,989 declined. On the NSE, 879 stocks gained and 2,301 fell.
On the NSE, 35 stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 378 touched fresh 52-week lows. Seventy-three stocks hit the upper circuit and 100 touched the lower circuit.
Foreign investors continued selling on Friday, with net sales of ₹4,113.38 crore in the cash market. Domestic institutions bought shares worth ₹4,102.56 crore. So far in January, foreign investors have withdrawn ₹33,598 crore from Indian markets.
Though the Nifty had hinted at a trend reversal on Thursday, it failed to materialise. Many fear that a further fall today could trigger a sharper decline. Volatility is expected to remain high. Key support levels are seen at 25,010 and 24,940, while resistance is expected at 25,260 and 25,340.
Adani Group stocks fell sharply on Friday amid reports that the US Securities and Exchange Commission is seeking court approval to email summons to Gautam Adani. Some stocks fell up to 15 percent. The group later said it is in touch with the SEC.
Kalyan Jewellers continued its decline.
Kitex Garments surged 8.54 percent, extending its two-day gain to 17 percent, following news that a political party led by the company’s management has joined the NDA.
UltraTech Cement of the Aditya Birla Group reported strong third-quarter results. Revenue rose 23 percent and net profit increased 27 percent, beating expectations. Operating profit jumped 35.2 percent, with margins rising to 18 percent.
JSW Steel’s December-quarter results exceeded analyst estimates, with strong growth in revenue and net profit tripling.
Kotak Mahindra Bank’s third-quarter performance was muted. Net interest income rose 5.1 percent, while net profit increased 4.3 percent. Asset quality remained largely unchanged.
IndusInd Bank reported weak third-quarter results. Net interest income fell 12.7 percent and net profit plunged 90 percent. Gross NPAs stood at 3.56 percent and net NPAs at 1.04 percent. Provisions rose 20.2 percent to ₹2,096 crore.
JSW Energy posted a 67.4 percent jump in revenue in the third quarter, while net profit surged 150 percent to ₹420 crore.
Godrej Consumer Products reported an 8.8 percent rise in revenue and a 16.4 percent increase in operating profit, but net profit showed only marginal growth.
BPCL delivered better-than-expected results, with revenue up 13.4 percent and operating profit rising 19.4 percent. Margins improved to 9.8 percent, while net profit climbed 17.1 percent.
After closing marginally lower near $5,000 an ounce on Friday, gold broke all records on Monday, hitting a peak of $5,110.90 before easing to $5,011.40 on profit booking. Prices rose above $5,070 again this morning.
Experts warn that speculative activity has increased and caution is needed. However, gold bulls remain optimistic, expecting further gains. Data from the past two quarters show reduced selling by central banks, which had earlier been a key factor supporting prices.
In Kerala, 22-carat gold rose sharply. Prices increased by ₹2,080 on Friday to ₹1,15,240 per sovereign, rose another ₹2,280 on Saturday to ₹1,17,520, and climbed ₹1,800 on Monday morning to a record ₹1,19,320 before easing to ₹1,18,760 by noon.
On MCX, 24-carat gold touched ₹1,59,226 per 10 grams on Friday before closing at ₹1,55,963.
Silver surged 7.5 percent on Friday to $103.51 an ounce, marking the first time it crossed $100. On Monday, prices spiked to $117.83 before plunging to $101.84 on profit booking. This morning, silver climbed back above $110.
On MCX, silver rose to ₹3,39,927 per kg on Friday before closing at ₹3,34,600.
Platinum rose to $2,690, palladium to $1,973 and rhodium to $10,450.
Industrial metals rallied over Friday and Monday. Aluminium rose to $3,195.11 per tonne. Copper surged to $13,194.85 per tonne, close to its yearly high of $13,335. Nickel, zinc, tin and lead all gained over three percent in two days.
Rubber rose 2.31 percent in international markets to 185.80 cents per kg. Cocoa rebounded to $4,323.26 per tonne after a sharp fall on Friday. Coffee rose 1.70 percent, while tea fell 2.75 percent. Palm oil gained 1.20 percent.
The dollar weakened again. The dollar index fell nearly one percent on Friday to 97.60, slipped to 96.81 on Monday before closing at 97.04. It rose slightly to 97.09 this morning. Over the past year, the index has ranged between 96.22 and 109.88.
Major currencies strengthened against the dollar. The euro rose to $1.1873, the pound to $1.3676, and the Swiss franc to $0.7769. The Japanese yen briefly strengthened to 153 per dollar before weakening to 154.21. The Chinese yuan strengthened to 6.95 per dollar.
US Treasury yields eased, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.225 percent.
The Indian rupee weakened again on Friday, closing at 91.94 per dollar, down 31 paise. Despite RBI intervention, the currency remained under pressure amid continued foreign outflows and rumours that an India–US trade deal may not materialise. In offshore trade, the rupee strengthened to 91.70 as the dollar index weakened.
The Chinese yuan, which had fallen to ₹13.06 on Friday, rebounded to ₹13.19.
Crude oil prices remain firm amid fears of conflict involving Iran. Brent crude closed at $65.59 a barrel after touching $65.88. Prices stood at $65.47 this morning. WTI traded at $60.57 and UAE’s Murban at $65.08. Natural gas prices surged to $6.65 amid continuing severe cold.
Cryptocurrencies remain directionless. Bitcoin, which had fallen to $86,000 in recent days, traded near $88,200 this morning. Ether remained below $2,920, while Solana stayed under $124.
(January 23, Friday)
Sensex: 81,537.70 (-0.94 percent)
Nifty 50: 25,048.65 (-0.95 percent)
Bank Nifty: 58,473.10 (-1.23 percent)
Mid cap 100: 57,145.65 (-1.80 percent)
Small cap 100: 16,352.75 (-1.95 percent)
Dow Jones: 49,098.70 (-0.58 percent)
S&P 500: 6,915.61 (+0.03 percent)
Nasdaq: 23,501.20 (+0.28 percent)
Dollar: ₹91.94 (+0.31)
Gold (ounce): $4,985.10 (+$47.50)
Gold (sovereign): ₹1,15,240 (+₹2,080)
Brent crude: $65.88 (+1.48)
Dow Jones: 49,412.40 (+0.64 percent)
S&P 500: 6,950.23 (+0.50 percent)
Nasdaq: 23,601.36 (+0.43 percent)
Dollar: ₹91.94
Gold (ounce): $5,011.40 (+$26.30)
Gold (sovereign): ₹1,18,760 (+₹1,240)
Brent crude: $65.59 (-0.29)
