Fresh complexities in the ongoing trade war and unrelenting border tensions between India and Pakistan have weighed heavily on financial markets.
Hopes of de-escalation in trade conflicts have been dashed as new disputes emerged. Crude oil prices, which had recently dipped, rebounded. The dollar struggled to regain strength while the euro and other major currencies climbed. Global markets now await the US Federal Reserve's policy announcement scheduled for Wednesday night. Meanwhile, gold prices have surged to record highs, driven by the weakening dollar and persistent geopolitical tensions.
Most Asian markets remained closed on Monday for local holidays. US markets ended lower after a nine-day rally. Derivatives trading showed signs of caution — Gift Nifty closed at 24,581 on Monday night, rose to 24,609 in early trade Tuesday, but fell back to 24,560, indicating a flat opening for Nifty.
European markets closed mixed. The German index gained while the French index declined. The UK market was shut. Santander Bank sold its 49 percent stake in its Polish subsidiary to Austria’s Erste Group Bank. Bloomberg reported that Shell is exploring a takeover of British Petroleum (BP), though Shell issued only a vague statement in response.
The US markets fell on Monday as the trade dispute extended into the film sector. The US imposed a 100 percent tariff on films to discourage offshore production, causing Netflix shares to fall 2 percent. Markets dropped as much as 1 percent intraday before recovering some losses.
Reports suggested India agreed to remove tariffs on pharmaceuticals, auto components and steel if the US reciprocates. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted that trade agreements with some countries may be finalised soon, though President Trump ruled out immediate talks with Chinese President Xi.
On Monday, the Dow Jones fell 98.60 points (0.24%) to 41,218.83, S&P 500 lost 36.29 points (0.64%) to 5,650.38, and Nasdaq declined 133.49 points (0.74%) to 17,844.24. Futures were weak Tuesday morning with Dow down 0.06%, S&P 0.21%, and Nasdaq 0.44%.
Chinese markets edged up, while most other Asian markets including Japan and South Korea remained closed.
The Indian stock market opened higher on Monday but failed to hold onto early gains. The Sensex hit 81,049 and Nifty reached 24,526 before closing significantly lower. SBI and Kotak Mahindra Bank shares fell after reporting weak results — SBI dropped 1.25 percent, Kotak 4.5 percent. Bank Nifty declined 0.36 percent.
Falling crude prices lifted oil marketing companies by 3 to 6.5 percent. Paint and aviation stocks also gained. ONGC and Oil India, initially down 4 percent, trimmed losses later, with Oil India ending higher. RR Kabel rose 14.85 percent and Swiggy climbed 12 percent.
Adani group stocks soared following reports that the group had approached US authorities to drop corruption cases. Adani Enterprises rose 8.5 percent, Total Gas 14 percent, Power 6.5 percent, Ports 6.27 percent, and Green 7.15 percent.
Sectors like auto, FMCG, oil & gas, media, IT, consumer durables, pharma, metal, healthcare, and realty witnessed gains.
Nifty rose 114.45 points (0.47%) to close at 24,461.15. Sensex gained 294.85 points (0.37%) to end at 80,796.84. Bank Nifty dropped 195.85 points (0.36%) to 54,919.50. The Mid Cap 100 index surged 970.65 points (1.81%) to 54,675.75, while Small Cap 100 gained 1.02 percent to close at 16,609.90.
The market breadth favoured gainers. On the BSE, 2,520 stocks advanced versus 1,503 declines. On NSE, 2,023 shares rose while 865 fell. A total of 29 stocks hit 52-week highs, while 32 touched lows. There were 94 upper circuits and 66 lower circuits.
Foreign investors were net buyers in the cash segment, purchasing shares worth ₹497.79 crore. Domestic funds bought shares worth ₹2,788.66 crore.
Nifty now targets a breakout above the 24,550–24,600 resistance zone. Immediate support lies at 24,410 and 24,335, while resistance is expected near 24,515 and 24,590.
Indian Hotels reported a 27.3 percent rise in revenue, 30 percent increase in operating profit, and 25 percent jump in net profit for Q4, with margins expanding to 35.3 percent.
CCL Products saw revenue rise 15 percent and net profit soar 56.2 percent.
DCM Shriram posted a 19.9 percent increase in revenue and 51.9 percent rise in net profit.
Computer Age Management Services (CAMS) reported a 14.7 percent revenue growth and a 10.2 percent increase in net profit.
Bombay Dyeing’s Q4 revenue declined 5.7 percent, and profit slumped 82.6 percent.
Zee Media’s revenue dropped 13 percent, and losses quintupled.
Jammu & Kashmir Bank’s net interest income fell 13.3 percent, and profit slipped 8.5 percent.
Coforge’s revenue rose 4.9 percent, and profit improved 21.2 percent.
Paytm, Hindustan Petroleum, Bank of Baroda, Alembic Pharma, Godrej Consumer, Piramal Enterprises, Aarti Drugs, Nerolac Paints, Polycab India, Aadhar Housing, Radico Khaitan, Sundaram Clayton, JBM Auto, and CG Power are scheduled to announce results today.
The unexpected weakening of the dollar has pushed gold close to record levels. Unless the US Fed delivers surprises, the rally may continue. Gold closed Monday at $3,335.40 per ounce, up 2.9 percent, recovering half of last week's losses. It jumped further to $3,380 in early trade Tuesday.
Ongoing geopolitical conflicts and lack of progress in the trade dispute have boosted gold’s appeal.
In Kerala, the price of gold rose ₹160 on Monday to ₹70,200 per sovereign (8 gram).
Rubber prices rose 0.83 percent internationally to $169.70 per kg. Cocoa fell 3.09 percent to $8,654.67, while coffee climbed 1.57 percent. Palm oil fell 1.08 percent.
The US dollar Index dipped to 99.46 on Monday before recovering to close at 99.83. It rose again to 100.08 Tuesday morning. The euro climbed to $1.1281, the pound to $1.3264, and the Japanese yen strengthened to 144.17 per dollar. US treasury prices fell again, pushing 10-year bond yields up to 4.351 percent. The Chinese yuan remained at 7.27 per dollar.
The rupee appreciated to ₹84.23 per dollar in early trade Monday but ended slightly weaker at ₹84.25 after RBI intervention, still 33 paise stronger than the previous close.
Oil prices fell Monday amid signs that OPEC+ may raise output. Brent dipped to $60.23 and WTI to $57.20 per barrel, with UAE’s Murban crude at $59.96. However, prices rebounded about 1.5 percent Tuesday morning — Brent to $61.06, WTI to $57.93, and Murban to $60.97.
Cryptocurrencies continue to swing in response to dollar fluctuations. Bitcoin fell below $94,800, and Ethereum hovered near $1,820.
