The West Asia conflict has entered its third day. Following the killing of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a clear successor has not yet emerged. However, Iran has continued retaliatory strikes targeting Israel and US-linked assets across the Gulf, including facilities in the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Oil movement through the Strait of Hormuz has sharply slowed.
Yet, global markets are not pricing in a full-blown collapse. The dominant assumption appears to be that the conflict may not drag on for long and that geopolitical equations in Iran could stabilise sooner rather than later.
When Iran was attacked in June last year, crude had spiked to $110 a barrel, the Indian market fell 1.6 percent and US indices dropped up to 1.8 percent. However, markets stabilised within two days. A similar pattern is expected this time — an initial shock followed by a gradual normalisation.
That said, if the war prolongs or takes an unexpected turn, markets could react sharply. Aviation disruptions and a slowdown in Gulf tourism are key concerns. Companies with heavy Gulf exposure — including engineering majors such as L&T and KEC International — could face pressure. Jewellery firms, NBFCs, banks and brokerages with strong NRI linkages may also remain vulnerable.
In GIFT City derivatives trading, Gift Nifty closed Friday night at 25,285. Early Monday trade saw Nifty slipping to 25,050 before recovering to 25,225 and then easing again — indicating a weak start for domestic markets.
In the US ADR market, Infosys fell 1.77 percent on Friday and slipped another 1.25 percent in extended trade. Wipro declined 1.33 percent and remained flat thereafter.
After days of volatility, Indian equities fell sharply on Friday amid heavy foreign selling.
Sectoral trends
IT, media and consumer durables saw marginal gains
Realty, capital markets, auto, FMCG, pharma and healthcare declined sharply
Closing levels
Sensex fell 961.42 points (1.17 percent) to 81,287.19
Nifty declined 317.90 points (1.25 percent) to 25,496.55
Bank Nifty dropped 658.70 points (1.08 percent) to 60,529.00
Midcap 100 fell 1.14 percent
Smallcap 100 declined 1.10 percent
Market breadth turned negative. On the BSE, 1,574 stocks advanced while 2,633 declined. On the NSE, 1,136 gained and 1,988 fell.
Foreign portfolio investors were net sellers of ₹7,536.36 crore in the cash market. Domestic institutions bought ₹12,292.81 crore.
Wall Street closed in the red on Friday.
Dow Jones fell 521.28 points (1.05 percent) to 48,977.92
S&P 500 declined 29.98 points (0.43 percent) to 6,878.88
Nasdaq dropped 210.17 points (0.92 percent) to 22,668.21
US futures are again trading lower this morning, after having fallen more than 1 percent earlier.
Technology stocks saw sustained fund outflows last month. The Nasdaq lost more than 4 percent in the past month. Nvidia fell 4 percent on Friday. Reports that Anthropic AI has been barred from certain US defence contracts could benefit OpenAI. Amazon has reportedly agreed to invest $50 billion in OpenAI, with Nvidia and Salesforce committing $30 billion each. An IPO is expected in due course.
European markets closed mixed on Friday. Germany and France declined, while the UK and broader European indices posted modest gains.
Asian markets trimmed early losses today. Japan’s Nikkei fell 2 percent at one stage before narrowing losses to 1.3 percent. Australia declined 0.60 percent. Hong Kong dropped 1.5 percent. Chinese markets turned positive after an initial decline. South Korea is closed for a holiday.
The West Asia conflict initially lifted gold prices sharply.
Gold closed Friday up 1.82 percent at $5,280.20 an ounce
It rose 2 percent to $5,394 this morning before easing to around $5,324
Silver jumped 7.5 percent Friday to $94.27 and closed at $93.66. It surged above $100 in early trade before slipping below $93.
In Kerala, 22-carat gold rose ₹8,840 over two days to ₹1,26,920 per sovereign. Despite stable international prices on Saturday, local prices were revised twice amid supply concerns via Dubai and currency weakness. However, softer global prices suggest a possible correction locally today.
On MCX, gold touched ₹1,62,589 per 10 grams. Silver rose to ₹2,75,978 before closing at ₹2,74,389.
Copper gained 1.71 percent to $13,439.50 per tonne
Aluminium edged up to $3,151.35
Tin jumped 7.14 percent
Zinc and lead declined
Rubber and agri commodities
Natural rubber eased 0.34 percent to 204.50 cents per kg — still the highest since December 2024 due to seasonal production decline in Southeast Asia.
Cocoa fell to a 2023 low before closing at $2,898.2 per tonne. Tea rose 1.37 percent, coffee dipped 0.25 percent. Palm oil closed at 4,046 Malaysian ringgit per tonne.
The dollar index rose from 97.61 to 98.09 before easing slightly.
Euro slipped to $1.177
Pound fell to $1.3428
Yen weakened to 156.43 per dollar
Yuan moved to 6.86 per dollar
US 10-year bond yields rose to 3.968 percent.
The rupee weakened Friday to close at ₹90.98 per dollar. In the offshore NDF market, the dollar rose to ₹91.24, signalling further pressure. Currency movements in China may also influence domestic trade today.
Crude did not witness a runaway surge on day one of the conflict. Markets appear to be betting on a limited-duration war.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has reportedly dropped to just 10 percent of last week’s levels. While one tanker near Oman was attacked, there have been no reports of widespread mining or blockade.
If the Strait is fully blocked, crude could surge past $100 a barrel — potentially even revisiting the 2007 high of $147. Around 20–22 percent of global seaborne crude and LNG flows through Hormuz. India, China, Japan and South Korea depend heavily on this route.
Brent closed on Friday at $72.87
It spiked to $82.37 before easing near $76
WTI trades around $69.67
UAE Murban crude at $77.64
Natural gas at $2.902
Bitcoin fell to $63,000 on Saturday before recovering above $66,500. Ether trades near $1,970, while Solana remains below $85.
(February 27, Friday)
Sensex: 81,287.19 (-1.17%)
Nifty 50: 25,178.65 (-1.25%)
Bank Nifty: 60,529.00 (-1.08%)
Midcap 100: 59,115.60 (-1.14%)
Smallcap 100: 16,928.90 (-1.10%)
Dow Jones: 48,977.92 (-1.05%)
S&P 500: 6,878.88 (-0.43%)
Nasdaq: 22,668.21 (-0.92%)
Dollar (₹): 90.98 (+0.07)
Gold (ounce): $5,280.20 (+$94.30)
Gold (sovereign, Kerala): ₹1,26,920 (+₹8,840)
Brent crude: $72.87 (+$1.96)
