Indian markets are bracing for volatility today as retail inflation figures from both India and the US are due to be released. There is also optimism ahead of Friday’s US-Russia summit, with hopes that it could pave the way for peace in Ukraine and the lifting of sanctions.
Asian markets opened higher this morning after Washington and Beijing agreed to extend their tariff truce by 90 days. Overnight, US and European markets closed lower. Western markets are closely watching tonight’s US retail inflation data.
The extension came just hours before the previous agreement was set to expire. Under the truce, the US levies a 30 percent tariff on Chinese goods, while China imposes 10 percent duties on US goods.
In derivatives trade, Gfit Nifty closed at 24,552.50 on Monday night and rose to 24,601.50 this morning, signalling a likely positive opening for Indian equities.
European markets, excluding the UK, ended lower on Monday. The Trump administration’s refusal to approve or expand wind power projects in the US hit Denmark’s Orsted, a major wind turbine company, which has been unable to sell its turbines in the American market. The company announced a rights issue, triggering a 30 percent plunge in its stock.
US markets ended lower after a volatile session, weighed down by uncertainty over tariffs on China and concerns about upcoming inflation data. The tariff extension and Trump’s announcement ruling out duties on gold bars were both made after the markets closed.
Trump appointed economist E.J. Antoni — from the conservative Heritage Foundation — as head of the Bureau of Labour Statistics, replacing the outgoing director following a controversy over revised jobs data. Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan also met Trump, earning public praise from the president just days after Trump had called for his resignation. Intel shares gained over 4 percent.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 200.52 points (0.45 percent) to close at 43,975.09. The S&P 500 shed 16 points (0.25 percent) to end at 6,373.45, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 64.62 points (0.30 percent) to 21,385.40.
Futures were marginally higher early Tuesday, with the Dow up 0.04 percent, the S&P 0.14 percent, and the Nasdaq 0.13 percent. Asian markets also traded in the green, with Japan’s Nikkei index hitting a record after climbing more than 2 percent, and Australian stocks also setting fresh highs.
Indian equities rallied on Monday on optimism that a ceasefire in Ukraine could remove opposition to Russian oil purchases. Gains erased Friday’s losses, with domestic funds emerging as strong buyers despite continued foreign selling. Mutual fund inflows in July boosted institutional buying power, resulting in the strongest advance in seven weeks.
All sectors except consumer durables closed higher. Weak summer demand and supply disruptions from China hit air conditioner and appliance makers, dragging down Voltas and PG Electroplast. Government-run banks surged on strong SBI results and a positive outlook. Realty, healthcare, pharma, auto, FMCG, banking and financials also advanced. Reliance Industries rose 1.23 percent, while government support for LPG losses lifted oil marketing companies.
The Nifty jumped 221.75 points (0.91 percent) to 24,585.05, while the Sensex gained 746.29 points (0.93 percent) to 80,604.08. Bank Nifty rose 505.85 points (0.92 percent) to 55,510.75. The Midcap 100 index climbed 476.80 points (0.85 percent) to 56,479.00, and the Smallcap 100 index advanced 63.50 points (0.36 percent) to 17,491.70.
Market breadth favoured gains, with 2,181 BSE stocks rising against 1,983 losers. On the NSE, 1,604 stocks advanced while 1,413 declined. Nifty momentum indicators have turned bullish, with resistance seen at 24,800–24,850 and support at 24,330–24,200.
Gold markets were unsettled over the weekend and on Monday following reports that the Trump administration would impose a 39 percent tariff on gold bars. Prices fell 1.5 percent to $3,343.90 an ounce before rebounding to $3,357 after Trump announced there would be no duties. Reports of a possible US Fed rate cut in September also weighed on bullion.
In Kerala, gold fell ₹560 per sovereign on Monday to ₹75,000. Silver held at $37.75 an ounce.
International rubber prices rose 0.54 percent to 168.60 cents a kg. Cocoa jumped 2.41 percent to $8,731.73 a tonne on fears that drought in northwest Africa will slash output this year. Coffee gained 3.38 percent, while tea fell 2.06 percent and palm oil climbed 3.06 percent.
The dollar index inched up to 98.52 on Monday and was at 98.49 early Tuesday. The euro eased to $1.1613, the pound to $1.343, and the yen to 148.30 per dollar. US 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.283 percent.
The rupee, which had strengthened early in the day, ended flat at Monday’s 87.66 per dollar after slipping to 87.75 during trade. The Chinese yuan weakened to 7.19 per dollar.
Brent crude closed at $66.63 a barrel on Monday and edged up to $66.66 this morning. WTI traded at $63.96 and Murban crude at $68.97. Natural gas gained 2.75 percent.
Cryptocurrencies fell again, with Bitcoin retreating below $118,850 after topping $122,000 over the weekend, while Ether slid below $4,230.
