Negative global cues worrying, but markets' uptrend likely today

The Indian stock market closed yesterday with optimism after two consecutive days of gains, signaling belief in the market's continued strength. Western markets, however, are not providing clear direction, and Asian markets started lower this morning. Still, the Indian market is expected to see a slight uptick at the open.

Crude oil prices have dropped below $70, reflecting concerns about weakening demand. This is being interpreted as a sign of slower global economic growth, which is not a positive indicator for the markets.

The market is now focused on August’s retail inflation data, expected to be released tomorrow evening. Analysts estimate inflation will hover around 3.2%, down from 3.54% in July. Food inflation has also declined to 5.42%. While the Reserve Bank of India has signaled that it may only start cutting interest rates by January, there is pressure for an earlier reduction.

US inflation data is expected today, with a general consensus predicting a 2.5% rise. Any deviation from this could cause market volatility. Wholesale inflation data will be available tomorrow.

In the derivatives market, Gift Nifty closed at 25,113 last night and fell to 25,080 this morning, suggesting a flat start for Indian markets today.

US, European, Asian markets

European markets fell on Tuesday, led by a sharp decline in auto stocks, as BMW's profit warning caused its shares to drop 11%. Meanwhile, the US markets were mixed on Tuesday; while the Dow Jones fell, the other two indices rose. Inflation data on Wednesday and wholesale inflation on Thursday will be key drivers ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

Stocks such as Nvidia, AMD, Amazon, Tesla, and Microsoft gained. Oracle surged 11% on better-than-expected profits, while Apple fell for the fifth consecutive day.

On Tuesday, the Dow Jones fell 92.63 points (0.23%) to close at 40,736.96. The S&P 500 gained 24.47 points (0.45%) to finish at 5495.52, and the Nasdaq surged 141.28 points (0.84%) to close at 17,025.88.

US futures are lower this morning, with the Dow down 0.19%, Nasdaq down 0.33%, and S&P down 0.24%.

The yield on US 10-year bonds rose to 3.65%, and Asian markets started lower today, with Japan's Nikkei down by nearly 0.75%.

Indian markets

The Indian markets opened higher yesterday, briefly fluctuated, but continued its upward momentum. The Nifty closed at 25,130.50, and the Sensex ended at 82,196.55. Sectors such as IT, pharma, healthcare, media, realty, consumer durables, and metals led the gains.

On the NSE, 1,900 stocks advanced, while 841 declined. On the BSE, 2,532 stocks rose, and 1,426 fell.

The Sensex rose 361.75 points (0.44%) to close at 81,921.29 on Tuesday, while the Nifty climbed 104.70 points (0.42%) to end at 25,041.10. Bank Nifty gained 0.30% (154.50 points) to close at 51,272.30.

The midcap index rose by 1.19% (691.65 points) to finish at 59,039.05, while the smallcap index gained 1.15% to close at 19,317.40.

Foreign investors bought shares worth ₹2,208.23 crore in the cash market on Tuesday, while domestic funds and institutions sold ₹275.37 crore worth of stocks.

After two days of gains, the market is expected to continue its upward trend today. Global cues remain favourable for the rise.

Today, Nifty has support at 24,890 and 24,805, with resistance expected at 24,990 and 25,090.

Corporate news

Tata Power surged nearly 7% on news of its solar cell manufacturing venture.

Life insurance stocks fell by up to 4% after the decision to reduce GST on insurance premiums was postponed.

US regulatory changes on Chinese pharmaceutical companies lifted global pharma stocks yesterday.

Crude oil drops, gold rises

Gold prices rose again, driven by increased central bank buying. Gold closed at $2,517.20 per ounce yesterday and was trading at $2,518 this morning. Holiday prices for December contracts surged to $2,548 per ounce.

In Kerala, gold prices remained unchanged at ₹53,440 per sovereign on Monday but are expected to rise today. Silver rose to $28.39 per ounce.

The dollar index climbed to 101.63 on Tuesday and is now trading at 101.68. A stronger dollar is weighing on the rupee, which closed 2 paise higher at ₹83.98 on Tuesday.

Crude oil plummeted as the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) projected lower demand this year. Brent crude closed at $69.19 on Tuesday and edged up to $69.45 this morning. WTI crude stood at $66.01, while UAE's Murban crude was at $69.65.

Cryptocurrencies saw a modest rise, with Bitcoin up 1% to $57,600 and Ethereum trading at $2,380.

Industrial metals continued to decline, with copper down 0.42% at $8,934.75 per tonne, aluminium down 0.76% at $2,341.15, and nickel, zinc, tin, and lead all posting losses between 0.16% and 1.05%.

Market indicators (September 10, Tuesday)

• Sensex 30: 81,921.29 (+0.44%)
• Nifty 50: 25,041.10 (+0.42%)
• Bank Nifty: 51,272.30 (+0.30%)
• Mid Cap 100: 59,039.05 (+1.19%)
• Small Cap 100: 19,317.40 (+1.15%)
• Dow Jones 30: 40,736.96 (-0.23%)
• S&P 500: 5,495.52 (+0.45%)
• Nasdaq: 17,025.88 (+0.84%)
• USD: ₹83.98 (+₹0.02)
• Dollar Index: 101.63 (+0.08)
• Gold (ounce): $2,517.20 (+$9.30)
• Gold (sovereign): ₹53,440 (₹00)
• Brent Crude Oil: $69.19 (-$2.65)