The Indian stock market faces a volatile week ahead as investor sentiment remains fragile, driven by quarterly earnings announcements and fading hopes of a trade deal between India and the United States. While heavyweight firms such as Reliance Industries delivered results largely in line with expectations, broader market earnings were mixed and failed to impress.
A fifth round of India–US trade talks collapsed without progress, clouding the outlook for a bilateral agreement. Washington is reportedly pressuring India to emulate nations like Indonesia and Vietnam by offering zero-tariff access to US goods while continuing to impose 15–20 percent duties on Indian exports. India is seen to be caught between compromising significantly or risking disengagement. Unlike Brazil, India may not have the leverage to resist such demands effectively.
Meanwhile, despite a ceasefire between Israel and Syria, crude oil prices continued to climb. In early Monday trade, Brent crude was at $69.42 per barrel, marginally up from Friday’s close of $69.28. WTI stood at $67.50, while Murban crude was at $71.10. Natural gas prices edged higher as well.
In the derivatives market, Gift Nifty closed at 25,010.50 on Friday night. It dipped to 24,987 in early trade Monday but rebounded to 25,042 before retreating again. This signals a likely weak or flat start for Indian equities.
European markets ended Friday in the red after Thursday's gains, with investor confidence shaken by reports that US President Donald Trump is unwilling to offer lower tariffs to Europe. Swedish defence and aerospace company Saab saw its stock jump 15 percent after posting results that beat expectations, aided by a sharp rise in profit guidance. British luxury retailer Burberry gained 8 percent, driven by stronger US sales.
On Wall Street, indices closed mixed after a volatile session. The Dow Jones slipped 142.30 points (0.32 percent) to 44,342.20, while the S&P 500 was nearly flat, down just 0.01 points. The Nasdaq Composite inched up 10.01 points (0.05 percent) to close at 20,895.70. While corporate earnings largely beat expectations, economic indicators pointed in different directions, and tariff tensions with the European Union intensified.
US housing starts and sales fell in June amid high interest rates and growing economic uncertainty. However, a recent survey suggested that consumers expect inflation to ease in the coming months.
Asian markets were trading mixed on Monday. Japan, South Korea, and Australia witnessed declines, while Hong Kong and Chinese markets opened higher. China’s central bank left interest rates unchanged. Despite the ruling coalition suffering setbacks in Japan’s recent elections, political stability is expected to continue.
In currency markets, the US dollar index fell to 98.48 on Friday and dipped further to 98.45 early Monday. The euro weakened to $1.1622, while the pound slipped to $1.3412. The Japanese yen dropped to 148.45 per dollar. US 10-year Treasury yields declined to 4.42 percent amid increased bond buying.
The Indian rupee ended weaker for the second straight session, with the Reserve Bank of India intervening only mildly. The dollar rose by seven paise to close at ₹86.15.
Reliance Industries reported a 76 percent year-on-year jump in net profit to ₹30,681 crore for the first quarter, though this includes a ₹8,924 crore one-off gain from selling its stake in Asian Paints. Adjusted for this, net profit grew 25 percent. Revenue rose 5 percent to ₹2.48 lakh crore. Jio, retail, and oil-to-chemicals segments reported profit growth of 23 percent, 13 percent, and 11 percent respectively. The company’s debt stood at ₹1.17 lakh crore, with cash and equivalents at ₹2.20 lakh crore. Reliance Retail acquired Electrolux’s Kelvinator brand.
JSW Steel nearly doubled its net profit despite flat revenue, aided by a 9 percent rise in steel sales and lower expenses. Gross profit margin expanded by 4.73 percent.
HDFC Bank posted a 12 percent rise in net profit and announced a 1:1 bonus issue. Other income doubled, helped by a ₹9,130 crore gain from the HDB Financial IPO. Loans grew 8 percent and deposits 16 percent. Gross NPAs stood at 0.47 percent.
ICICI Bank saw net profit rise 15.5 percent. Total loans grew 11.5 percent, and deposits rose 13 percent. Personal and rural loans dipped, while corporate lending surged.
Central Bank of India increased net profit by 33 percent, with gross NPAs dropping from 0.73 to 0.49 percent.
Yes Bank posted a 59 percent jump in profit and reduced gross NPAs to 0.3 percent.
Union Bank of India reported a 12 percent rise in profit, with gross NPAs dropping to 0.62 percent.
India Cements, part of the Aditya Birla Group, posted a ₹133 crore loss despite a rise in operating profit. A ₹124 crore loss from a subsidiary offset gains.
July 21: Crisil, Dhanlaxmi Bank, Havells, IDBI Bank, Oberoi Realty
July 22: Colgate, Dixon Technologies, M&M Finance, Paytm, Zee
July 23: Infosys, Coforge, Oracle Financial, Dr Reddy’s
July 24: ACC, Adani Energy, Canara Bank, SBI Life
July 25: BoB, Cipla, Tata Chemicals, Sriram Finance
July 26: Kotak Mahindra Bank, IDFC First Bank
Gold prices surged into the weekend amid reports that President Trump may allow 401(k) retirement plans to invest in gold and cryptocurrencies. With over $8.7 trillion parked in such retirement accounts, even a partial shift could fuel significant demand. Analysts project that gold’s August futures could rise to ₹3,425 per gram.
Spot gold gained $10 on Friday to close at $3,350.70 per ounce and rose further to $3,358 on Monday morning. In Kerala, gold rose ₹360 on Friday to ₹73,200 per sovereign and another ₹160 on Saturday to ₹73,360. More gains are likely today.
Silver touched $38.49 per ounce on Friday before closing at $38.11. It stood at $38.22 Monday morning. At a 14-year high, analysts see silver touching $40.50, supported by rising industrial demand.
In global commodity markets, rubber rose 0.48 percent to 168.10 cents/kg, while cocoa jumped 5.30 percent to $7,696.71 per tonne. Coffee and tea declined. Palm oil rose 2.47 percent.
The Indian stock market continued its downward slide for a second straight session, with banks, financials, consumer durables, FMCG, and healthcare stocks dragging indices lower. Automakers also remained under pressure. The Sensex closed below the 82,000 mark, and the Nifty slipped under 25,000.
A review of Q1 earnings from 135 listed companies revealed muted performance. Average revenue growth slowed to 4.7 percent from 7.5 percent a year ago, while net profit growth fell to 6.1 percent from 11.9 percent.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net buyers in Friday’s cash market, but had pulled out $1.09 billion from Indian equities during the week.
On Friday, the Nifty dropped 143.05 points (0.51 percent) to close at 24,968.40, while the Sensex lost 501.51 points (0.61 percent) to end at 81,757.73. The Bank Nifty fell 545.80 points (0.96 percent) to 56,283.00. The Nifty Midcap 100 declined by 0.70 percent, and the Smallcap 100 fell 0.82 percent.
Decliners outpaced advancers across the market. On the BSE, 2,440 stocks fell while 1,622 gained. On the NSE, 1,820 stocks declined compared to 1,133 gainers. Notably, 69 NSE stocks touched 52-week highs, while 19 hit new lows. Circuit filters were triggered for 66 stocks on the upside and 33 on the downside.
FIIs net bought shares worth ₹374.74 crore on Friday, while domestic institutional investors purchased stocks worth ₹2,103.51 crore. Nifty’s hold above 24,900 is providing temporary comfort, but analysts warn that failure to hold support could see a drop to 24,700. Resistance is seen at 25,090 and 25,230.
