Stock market's bullish sentiment stays intact; gold aiming high

Despite a marginal decline last Friday, the markets' bullish sentiment remains intact. Expectations are that the market will open higher today and continue to gain.

The key event on the markets' radar is Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement. The market is anticipating the start of a rate-cutting cycle, with a 57% probability of a 0.25% rate cut and a 43% probability of a 0.50% cut.

Tomorrow, the August wholesale inflation data will be released. Last week's retail inflation figures were not reassuring.

With upcoming elections in mind, the Indian government has relaxed onion export restrictions to aid onion and oilseed farmers and sharply increased import duties on edible oils. This could further fuel inflation concerns.

In the derivatives market, the Gift Nifty closed at 25,411 over the weekend. It climbed to 25,440 this morning but has slightly eased since. Indications point to a higher start for the Indian market today.

US, European and Asian markets 

European markets rose 1% on Friday, anticipating that the Bank of England will cut interest rates on Thursday.

US markets closed strong on Friday, with indices just below record highs. The market is moving on the expectation that the Fed will cut rates by 0.25% on Wednesday.

The Dow Jones rose by 297.01 points (0.72%) to close at 41,393.78. The S&P climbed 30.26 points (0.54%) to end at 5626.02, while the Nasdaq advanced 114.30 points (0.65%) to close at 17,683.98.

US futures are slightly down today, with the Dow down by 0.03%, the Nasdaq by 0.12%, and the S&P by 0.05%.US 10-year treasury yields have dropped to 3.657%.

Most Asian markets are closed today. China's factory output, retail sales, and investment data have disappointed, with unemployment rising.

Indian markets on |Friday

The Indian market opened higher on Friday but later dipped slightly. On the NSE, 1,779 shares rose while 1,015 declined. On the BSE, 2,454 shares advanced, and 1,517 fell.

On Friday, the Sensex dropped 71.77 points (0.09%) to close at 82,890.94. The Nifty shed 32.40 points (0.13%) to end at 25,356.50. Bank Nifty rose 0.32% (165.65 points) to close at 51,938.05.

The midcap index surged by 0.66% to close at 60,034.05, crossing 60,000 for the first time. The small-cap index gained 0.78% to finish at 19,505.95. 

Foreign investors bought shares worth ₹2,364.82 crore in the cash market on Friday, while domestic funds and institutions bought ₹2,532.18 crore worth of shares.

The market ended last week with a 2% gain, and conditions are favourable for further gains today. Foreign investors are returning as buyers.

Gold aiming to cross $2,600

Gold is once again approaching record highs, with market predictions that it will surpass $2,600. The December holiday price has reached $2,608. Many predict gold will hit $2,750 per ounce next year.

On Friday, gold closed at $2,578.70 per ounce, and this morning it stands at $2,582. The certainty that the Fed will cut interest rates on Wednesday is driving gold prices up. Lower interest rates often prompt large investors to shift from bonds to gold and stocks.

In Kerala, gold prices rose by ₹960 per sovereign on Friday to reach ₹54,600. On Saturday, the price increased by ₹320 to ₹54,920. Prices may rise further today.

Silver prices have risen to $30.86 per ounce.

The dollar index closed at 101.11 on Friday and dropped to 100.96 this morning. The decline in the dollar index will benefit the rupee. On Friday, the dollar fell by 8 paise to close at ₹83.89.

Crude oil prices fall

Crude oil prices are falling. Brent crude closed at $71.83 on Friday, slightly down, and this morning it has dropped to $71.76. WTI crude is at $68.88, and UAE's Murban crude stands at $71.98.

Cryptocurrencies dip

Cryptocurrencies saw a slight decline, with Bitcoin falling to $58,600 and Ether at $2,290.

Mixed trends in industrial metals

Industrial metals showed mixed trends. Copper dropped 0.39% to $9,080.05 per tonne. Aluminium rose 0.98% to $2,439.46 per tonne. Nickel fell 1.19%, zinc by 0.41%, and lead by 0.35%, while tin rose 1.14%.

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Market indicators (Friday, September 13)

• Sensex 30: 82,890.94 (-0.09%)

• Nifty 50: 25,356.50 (-0.13%)

• Bank Nifty: 51,938.05 (+0.32%)

• Mid-cap 100: 60,034.05 (+0.66%)

• Small-cap 100: 19,505.95 (+0.78%)

• Dow Jones 30: 41,393.78 (+0.72%)

• S&P 500: 5,626.02 (+0.54%)

• Nasdaq: 17,683.98 (+0.65%)

• USD/INR: ₹83.89 (-₹0.08)

• Dollar Index: 101.11 (-0.26%)

• Gold (ounce): $2,578.70 (+$19.40)

• Gold (sovereign): ₹54,920 (+₹320)

• Crude oil (Brent): $71.83 (-$0.15)