Despite signs that the Israel–Iran conflict is entering a decisive phase, global markets have not reacted with significant panic. Asian indices are broadly higher, while US futures have edged lower. This divergence could lead to choppy trading in Indian markets today.
Hopes surged on Monday after Iran reportedly conveyed willingness to engage in talks via Saudi Arabia and other nations. But sentiment quickly reversed by early Tuesday, when Israeli warnings for civilians to evacuate Tehran were echoed by US President Donald Trump on social media. Trump’s unexpected return to Washington before the G7 summit concluded also fuelled fears of a military escalation. Large explosions and fires were reported across Tehran around the same time. However, oil prices, which had spiked on geopolitical concerns, softened following Trump’s remarks—providing temporary relief to markets.
In derivatives trade, Gift Nifty closed at 25,010 overnight and opened lower at 24,960 this morning, suggesting a weak start for Indian markets.
European markets rebounded on Monday. Shares of French automaker Renault fell 7 percent after CEO Luca de Meo announced his move to fashion group Kering, which gained 7 percent. The UK–US trade deal signed recently is being viewed as a political win for British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Optimism that the Israel–Iran war may soon end lifted US markets. Crude oil prices also dropped sharply after reports that Iran may be open to nuclear negotiations with the US. However, after-hours developments in West Asia have clouded the outlook again.
Markets expect the US Federal Reserve to hold rates steady in its upcoming meeting on Wednesday but hope it may signal a rate cut in the near future.
The Dow Jones rose 317.30 points (0.75%) to close at 42,515.09. The S&P 100 added 56.14 points (0.94%) to end at 6,033.11. The Nasdaq Composite gained 294.39 points (1.52%) to reach 19,701.21.
US futures were trading in the red this morning: Dow down 0.39 percent, S&P down 0.44 percent, and Nasdaq down 0.46 percent.
Asian markets are largely higher. Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.60 percent. Hong Kong and Chinese indices rose initially but gave up gains later.
Expectations of a thaw in West Asia and the drop in crude oil prices helped Indian markets rebound on Monday. After a choppy morning, the market moved into a broad-based rally, closing near the day’s highs.
IT, realty, metal, and oil & gas sectors led the gains. Mid cap and small cap indices outperformed the benchmarks.
Nifty surged 227.90 points (0.92%) to close at 24,946.50, while Sensex rose 677.55 points (0.84%) to finish at 81,796.15. Bank Nifty added 417.55 points (0.75%) to settle at 55,944.90. The Nifty Midcap 100 climbed 541.05 points (0.93%) to 58,768.50, and the Smallcap 100 gained 174.40 points (0.95%) to 18,549.20.
In the broader BSE market, declines outnumbered gains—1,944 stocks advanced while 2,151 declined. On the NSE, gainers led slightly with 1,483 advancing and 1,446 declining.
At the NSE, 66 stocks hit 52-week highs, while 28 hit lows. About 85 stocks hit upper circuits, while 80 touched lower circuits.
On Friday, foreign investors net sold ₹2,287.69 crore in the cash market, while domestic funds net bought ₹5,607.64 crore worth of shares.
Bullish traders are now eyeing the 25,000–25,200 range for Nifty. However, renewed war fears this morning could pose a hurdle. Support is expected at 24,775 and 24,700, with resistance likely at 24,980 and 25,035.
Gold, which had fallen on easing West Asia tensions, rebounded this morning. After closing at $3,385.26 per ounce yesterday, it climbed to $3,400 per ounce in early trade. In Kerala, gold dropped ₹120 per sovereign on Monday to ₹74,440. Silver remains steady at $36.26 per ounce.
Base metals rallied on Monday. Copper rose 0.82 percent to $9,737 per tonne. Aluminium gained 0.43 percent to $2,513.85. Nickel, lead, tin, and zinc also firmed up.
Rubber gained 0.43 percent in international trade to 162.40 cents/kg. Cocoa surged 3.16 percent to $10,099.49 per tonne, while coffee slipped 1.21 percent. Tea soared 7.03 percent, and palm oil jumped 4.23 percent.
The US dollar index, which closed at 98 yesterday, climbed to 98.25 this morning. The dollar weakened in currency markets: the euro held at $1.154, the pound at $1.35. The Japanese yen fell to 144.90 per dollar.
US 10-year Treasury yields rose as bond prices fell again. The yield touched 4.434 percent.
The rupee inched up marginally on Monday, with the dollar closing at ₹86.07, one paisa lower. China’s yuan traded at 7.18 per dollar.
Crude oil prices, which had plunged on Monday, rebounded sharply this morning amid renewed war fears—rising nearly 2 percent in early trade before slipping again. Brent was last quoted at $73.49 per barrel, WTI at $72.05, and Murban crude at $73.50. Natural gas edged lower.
Cryptocurrencies rose again. Bitcoin crossed $107,200, while Ether climbed to $2,585.
